87storms

39/16 in frederick. no temp issues with this one esp since it's a midnight arrival. just gotta hope the mountains aren't too thirsty.

i tried to bridge the gap by talking about sports.

agreed. TB isn't a great lateral player, but he can stick the 3. system's on track: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12&dim=1

probably better to talk about weather than the wizards, though. i had to cut back on that a few years ago. there's only so many times i can have an argument about busted draft picks and the need to have a stretch, playmaking 4/5 in the lineup.

i'm glad i replaced the spark plugs on my jeep.

it's nowcast time... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=12&dim=1 ...until the 12z globals.

i like my spot with this system. the northwest trend makes perfect sense given the entire setup and how much further north the upper level energy is this time around compared to monday. the only things i'd be concerned about for the entire forum east of the apps is that downsloping is a thing with weaker systems (though that doesn't seem to be the case with this one). with that said, anyone who grew up in the 80s/90s in this area knows exactly what i'm talking about (though obviously models have improved in that regard).

that would still be 30x more than what i've received all season. i'm all in on an old school snow advisory.

yea, that doesn't make sense and i agree wholeheartedly with others that we should be tracking the precip maps vs these snow maps that will likely be wrong since this is clearly going to be dependent on where any/if moderate bands develop (which could also be elevation dependent especially if the surface low tracks too far south/east).

I’m ok with this run lol

Lwx is pretty bullish in their afternoon disco. The maps make sense too given that the upper level energy is further north than Monday. Just need to avoid a late transfer. I’m assuming the models might jump around a bit with the max precip until that’s figured out.

gfs was drier/further south, but not a shutout. trend needs to stop, though. 0z will be huge.

i'd rather sign off on what the icon just showed. precip might have been a little lighter up here actually, but looks like a closer track.

where do i sign?

it literally hasn't snowed a dusting up here so far this winter, so i'm perfectly ok with that solution. it didn't look impossibly bad with the lead precip shield still pretty far north.

the teleconnections do seem to matter on a large scale here given the fact that we're usually a boom/bust snow town, but i think a southern slider is more at play when there isn't much northern stream involvement, or just plain further north. hopefully that's not the case this time around. as they say...12z euro will be telling.

agreed. mostly just want to avoid a skunk at this point. that was pretty annoying...though the models hinted at that on sunday, so it was at least somewhat expected.

i would obviously want a better surface low reflection/track, but it does seem like this one will be harder to miss for the areas closer to the m/d line (upper level vort max is further north than the last system). with that said, dc/bmore is looking like they're sitting pretty again so far.

i like my spot for this system better than the last one, that's for sure.

the nw trend is still a thing, though. happened last storm as well, but the northern tier needed too much work, too close to gametime.

this was the anti elevation storm. the confluence/downsloping combo did not help the northern tier.

yea, but seeing the precip developing in the tennessee valley is usually a good sign. if it's a quick mover then it wouldn't throw back as much moisture, but i think the miller b's that are the worst are the ones where the jet streams are a little more separated and syncing up too late. we'll see...hopefully it continues trending or at least holds.

kinda looks like a hybrid anyway (like 75% B, or something like that)

i'm ready to sign off on the nam. i don't need a blizzard right now. northern stream systems can work (like they can work in iowa). we just need a good vort pass underneath us to allow for a little bit of atlantic influence (gulf tap is a bonus).

looks like the system will try to link with some residual energy down south. not sure of the specifics, but the gom doesn't look completely closed for business. probably need the jet dip a little further south/west, though.