87storms

yea, i could see that. this will be my first winter in frederick, so this will be a good storm to see how much that change benefits me from being basically right on the 270 split (which actually was a pretty good spot for summer storms for whatever reason). saw your other post re middletown...i pass that area en route to greenbrier state park. seems like a good spot and i'm assuming being on the west side of the catoctins helps a bit with these types of setups.

That’s clutch. I gained latitude from Bethesda but probably still in the delayed but not denied mix zone lol.

Oh you’re prob in a bit of a better spot than me. My elevation isn’t all that great (around 350’) but it climbs real quick from here. It’s fun using the compass as I drive up to gambrill. I feel like the valley between catoctin and Hagerstown would do pretty well. Either way, looks like a decent cad setup to start for everyone.

I’m less than 5 miles west of 15 in Frederick so I approve this message, but still rooting for a nudge east.

i thought about relocating to charlotte last summer. that would have been at least mildly annoying. i like frederick for fringe events, though i'd probably just get a delayed switch here if the low tracks too far west. i'm prob in a similar geo as leesburg, if i had to guess.

Most important runs in model tracking history today? Looking at the gfs the only real difference I saw the last several runs is where that 50/50 blocking low ends up. In the better solutions it was further north and west, which seems to keep the hp over top from weakening/moving east so quickly. Still a few too many moving parts to know which scenario is the highest probability.

It’s more of an apps runner than a cutter, but still snows to start. Also a reminder that it’s still 5 days away.

Exactly. Curious what the euro has to say.

My guess was wrong. Surprised to see it that far north with the hp positioning. Who knows.

Regardless, looks like one helluva storm incoming.

Now that my PI planning is over I can get back to what’s important…wouldn’t surprise me to see a wobble south on the gfs simply bc it’s so far nw. I’ve seen that happen before at this range, but still nice to have a storm to track in a Nina.

I haven’t analyzed the 500 maps much but almost looks like a Jan 2000 situation on the gfs.

we're due for a clipper which is starting to show up more consistently next weekend. still too far north, but it's there.

The trough axis has been generally too far east on the model runs. However, there’s a difference between a miller B from a ns dominant system or clipper versus one where there’s a southern stream component involved (more of a hybrid). With the latter we can still score from overrunning prior to an epic dry slot. Hiking through gambrill/watershed yesterday (catoctin blue and knucklebuster for those familiar with the area) made me realize it doesn’t take much to turn things into winter here. It was pure powder. With that said, I’d accept a hecs too.

you might prefer snowboarding. it's more of a forward/back lean as opposed to side to side.

yea, those big southern lows need to go somewhere. blocking/ns influence is probably the main drivers of where those systems end up.

it would be a lot lol. with that said, usually want the 500 low under us. too many details this far out.

i think that had like 5+ lead time, similar to 2016. '16 might have been a little more locked in (i think we were waiting for the euro to get on board the weekend prior). i could be wrong, though. pd2 was pretty solid at 4-5 days as well.

looks like next sunday is worth monitoring, too. right now, it looks like a northern stream dominant system, but the gulf is open with some southern stream energy somewhere in the south lol. that solution might waver over the next couple days, i'm assuming.

Seems like we’re experiencing the difference between a La Niña and a well timed La Niña (mjo, etc). It’s 100 hrs further out than I’d like, but the ideas are showing up as a first step.

That and George Michael’s sports machine were in my 80s/90s rotation.

26/14 (from a nearby station)

looks like the southern stream gets involved again by mid-month on both the gfs and canadian. guess we need to see how dominant the northern stream is during that timeframe.

5.5" confirmed for the average here. measured in about 10 different spots. it's also cold...damn near got frostbite in the process. might take a lunchtime trip to downtown frederick to see how things look.

lol yea i'm just playin', but we're a fringe enough snowtown that we can meet average in any winter.