87storms

Even the Euro has generally ticked north with the H5 low. That trend needs to stop even on that model.

GFS is a negatively tilted bowling ball of a low. Someone is going to get rocked to the northwest of that thing.

Same or not, (imo) it's too mild out ahead of this system. It would be a cold chasing precip setup...which ain't ideal in early March.

The trough looks slightly more positive which I'm assuming is better. Really gonna need a strong high to the north for this one I think..at least with the gulf open for business like that.

It doesn't look like a cutter setup, assuming there's at least a legitimate high pressure over top...but I guess we'll find out shortly.

Driving back down Gambrill it seemed like ~800ft was the elevation/temp threshold where the light snow was able to accumulate. Would have prob been lower had rates been better up this way. Onto the next trackable event…

So I did take the drive…at about 1500’ in Gambrill and it’s snowing needles…no pingers. Not heavy…but it is accumulating lightly on the typical elevated surfaces/trees, etc.

Visibility is actually pretty low now looking towards Catoctin/Gambrill/'shed. I might have to take a little cruise through there.

My current ob as well. Light flakes flying from the south. It’s a good thing this is a quick hitter because it would have been a changeover scenario. Mazel Tov to those who were able to at least break the cartopper drought.

Nothing burger in Frederick and mostly expected. Might have a little band moving through mby soon, though.

LWX seems to have nailed that part of the forecast with better cad further east I guess. We just can't get a high pressure to lock in this winter, so we're left with snow showers and a southerly wind component lol. It is what it is at this point.

The column is moistening up quick...returns showing up already. 11-12 start time looks like the window.

Yea this seems mostly at the 700 layer. I’m assuming pretty much all from waa/overrunning. Not a lot of lift associated with this. The ones who get paid to do this can correct me. I can picture the radar being showery/elevation dependent with a little less downsloping impacts further east. That’s usually how these systems roll through. We’ll see around midday lol.

Satellite is choppy, too. Downsloping effects can mess these little systems up sometimes. That was always in the back of my head with this type of setup where there’s barely a surface feature. Gonna need to be in one those bands that survives those limiting factors. TBD

I'm on board for an actual snowstorm lol. I don't know about this one, but I know others are happy just to see snow. In late February...I'm happy to see a snowstorm, but I've pretty much retired from cartoppers for the season. Maybe this will surprise for a couple hours for the southern crew.

Fighting temps to the south and dry air to the north lol.

Looks like a classic cold chasing precip setup with mild temps leading in. Need a better high to the north, too...or at least one that is locked in prior to the precip arriving. The latest run seemed too wound up and also quicker to arrive.

I think going forward a snow to mix/rain deal could happen with a timely hp, but a clean start to finish snow might be difficult with that prevalent SE ridge, and a general mild Atlantic/nw track combo. March was great in 2014…but this isn’t 2014.

Yea, if you look at the surface map, it doesn't scream 70+ degrees lol...well, at least to this novice. I think there was just enough separation between the mid-level low and the surface low to the northeast, along with the SER, to get this warm today (once the cap broke). I will say, though...it feels pretty awesome outside. Good reset into potential tracking coming up.

It got breezy for sure, but not sure if the wind really produced as advertised. At least in Frederick, I’ve seen windier days here. I will say that the dry air moving in is felt…dews are low and I’m pretty sure my allergies have been kicking in the last few days, which is kinda ridiculous. I wouldn’t mind some snow in March to offset that a little bit.

Thanks, I'm probably thinking too much in terms of a Hugo or Fran (which, by the way, I don't want), but not really sure if a strong hurricane just spinning off the SE coast for 2 weeks in October would even have an impact long enough to help. A large scale pattern change makes more sense. We really are paying for 2013-2016 lol.

This is why LR Op forecasts need to be taken with a grain of salt. If you look at the 0z 2/19 run and compare it with 6z 2/21, the differences between modeled snow and nada are subtle: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023021900&fh=162 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023022106&fh=108 One model had more of a return flow, I guess, with higher PWATs and I suppose a better thermal gradient. I'm not really sure, but at least for a setup that doesn't involve a well-defined mid-level vort, it's probably best not to get too excited over seeing blues this far out.

@psuhoffmanRegarding tropical weather, maybe what we need is an active Atlantic hurricane season to stir up the SSTs in preparation for what could be a better ENSO/base state next season.

Yea, I think the ratter part is also due to the jet stream being too far north and west as well. In colder years, we might still be battling the R/S line. That’ll be an interesting trend to watch the next few winters. In other news…speaking of jet stream, looks like a jet streak moving through tomorrow which could translate gusty winds to the surface (per LWX). This week’s weather definitely has late March vibes.

Shot some hoops for a bit. The wind is a little spicy today, so it was more of a dribbling session, but temps are very nice. All-star game is at 730...hoping it's a good one because the other festivities have been pretty entertaining so far.