cbmclean

The NPAC vortex is also probably an even lesser of the two evils when it is not preceded by a month long +AO torch that causes Canada to be warm to begin with.

I am curious as to why there is an increased thermal gradient. My understanding is that high latitudes are warming faster than the tropics so I would expect that to lead to a reduced thermal gradient.

But it also has a correlation to dryness. No moisture, no snow.

I admit to being a fainter, but I try to keep my spells off of the board. That being said, I am only able to devote a tiny percentage of the time to this hobby that I would like right now so I depend on this board for pretty much all my LR information. I'm actually going to try to make myself a little chart to encapsulate a subjective opinion the status of how good or bad the pattern looks on the two primary ensembles (GEFS, EPS). To keep it apples-to-apples I am only going to ignore the 06Z and 18Z GEFS, and just consider at the 00Z and 12Z runs. So my plan is to fill in this chart with values from 1 - 10, with 1 being last January and 10 being the best pattern you can imagine. I accept any and all suggestions for numbers 00Z GEFS 00Z EPS Day1 - 5 3 3 Day 6 - 10 5 5 Day 11-15 7 1

I lurk a lot on here and I'd say the GEFS gets almost as much attention as the EPS. If the EPS gets a bit more attention, its because it has superior verification scores. I haven't looked but someone said that the GEPS agrees with the EPS. So its definitely worth some concern.

I watched too. Hard to believe he's gone.

For some reason this plays in my head like that speech from trainspotting Choose life. Choose a job. Choose a career. Choose a family. Choose a f--king big television, Choose washing machines, cars, compact disc players, and electrical tin openers. Choose good health, low cholesterol and dental insurance. Choose fixed-interest mortgage repayments. Choose a starter home. Choose your friends. Choose leisure wear and matching luggage. Choose a three piece suite on hire purchase in a range of f--king fabrics. Choose DIY and wondering who the f--k you are on a Sunday morning. Choose sitting on that couch watching mind-numbing spirit-crushing game shows, stuffing f--king junk food into your mouth. Choose rotting away at the end of it all, pissing your last in a miserable home, nothing more than an embarrassment to the selfish, f--ked-up brats you have spawned to replace yourselves. Choose your future. Choose life . . . But why would I want to do a thing like that? I chose not to choose life: I chose something else. And the reasons? There are no reasons. Who needs reasons when you've got heroinsnow?

I think Mack moved to Ohio. He can enjoy all those cutters now. I was wondering what happened to Cold Rain. And also Warm Nose.

I guess its events like that that make your commute worth it.

Sorry to stare: not because of NAM extrapolation. It's just that you remind me of someone famous. I bet if you weren't wearing a mask I could figure out who it is.

Going to hurt to see my Dolphins sit at home. Man if they hadn't dropped that game to Denver...

The Atlantic High Latitudes are looking better than years past that is true. But for the foreseeable future the guidance suggest that the Pacific will vary between "Meh" at best to "Ugly" at worst. In addition; the relative warmth in our normal source regions (northern Canada) means that there won't be much cold to work with in general.

We're past panic. Now its just acceptance and on to 2021-2022.

Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing. Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16. Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack.

The Pacific Doom Blob which haunted us all last winter is back like a horror movie villain. It just won't die.

I have gotten to the point where just don;t care anymore what he thinks or says. Even spending time mocking him is a waste..

Isn't that just Nina climatology?

Peaking in from the SE forum and I see that we are having a forum meltdown 3.67 months before the start of met winter. The sad thing is its not really irrational.

I blame PSU personally. If he hadn't have made that infamous post back in late December, this never would have happened.

Still holding at 33 F. If I could have had one degree, I could have had 6 inches.

Checking his garbage cans ain't happening?

So I'm in the jackpot zone 48 hours out. What could go wrong?

PSU (or anyone else interested in answering) I have been studying 500 HP trying to understand the correlation between them and surface temperatures. With a simple west ridge/east trough, it is very simple to see how the airflow brings cold air down from the norther latitudes and cools us down. But for something like the ridge bridge depicted above I have trouble visualizing how the gph anomalies lead to the conus getting flooded with cold air. Any wisdom to share?

Very informative, thanks.

Hey PSU. If you are bored and are just looking for stuff to do, I would be really interested in seeing a similar dissertation about crappy patterns. For example, my understanding is that the crap that started right before Christmas is a different sort of fail from the Pacific Doom Blob that we will soon be enjoying. I think in one of your posts today you mentioned it as a north Pacific problem as opposed to a SW Pacific problem.