cbmclean

7 hours ago, Snow dog said:

I got an idea.  Why don’t you just enjoy the weather that we are having now, because there isn’t a dam thing anyone can do about it! Merry Christmas All!

No.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol. Actually way to busy with holidays to worry much about snow. Hopefully things look better in about a week when I can really care again. My life right now is close to a scene from Christmas vacation. 

Hopefully not the scene with the chainsaw.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re the master of exaggeration. But I’ll give you this...what all the guidance shows up top starting day 7 on is extremely troubling. 

PV bouncing around in all the wrong places?

Well our two-day-long emotional high appears to be over.  Back to the despair zone.

PSU should be happy.

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No reason in the world to play Jackson a single play next week.

Should be able to handle the Steelers at home with RG3 under center.

The problem with that is I have seen so many times when a team rests it's starters the last week and then has a bye, and they come out super rusty in the divisionals.

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Be careful he's just saying what the models say and not interjecting any emotion or opinion 

I know, I was just being silly since he specifically said not to head to the bridges.

I'm heading for a bridge.  PSU cancelled winter. 

39 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Thanks CMC. Happy New Year! 

Man look at that triangle of doom in West Kansas.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow @C.A.P.E.

The look briefly looks promising around day 10. We get a dump of cold post day 10 from that very temporary -NAO -epo. There might be a very short window but att guidance says it’s pretty dry. But after that the look across guidance is honestly not that good for a significant snow. It’s hard to find any examples of a decent snowstorm with that h5 look.  It’s not a shutout look...we can get some snow in most patterns except a big SE ridge in January. But we would be hoping for some kind of progressive wave. Anything amplified would cut. Sound familiar.  Rather than try to work with that I’m just holding on to hope that it’s wrong after day 10. I don’t really want to spend prime climo stuck in a pattern where our best shot is to root for strung out waves. 

ETA: root for the GEPS. 

Won't gave access to the models for a bit.  GEP look good?

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Took a closer look at the 18z gefs. I suppose there's a longshot chance around NYE. Something to watch as we pass time wearing sunscreen. 

Hey Bob, I notice that this came from weatherBELL.  Are you a longtime member?  Is it worth the price?

Man, when they opened the January thread, they really brought the mojo.

2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

CFS is extremely cold from halfway through the run to the end of the run. Never seen it so cold on that model for so long. Also...

Gotta love how it shows sleet/zr in the gulf of Mexico.  1899 redux.  I'm sure it will happen.

2 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

They do forecast warmer than normal temperatures and precipitation over the southeast.

Boo, hiss.

ETA: This is definitely banter.  Is there a way to move one's own post to another thread?

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Not sure I like the latest MJO ECMWF forecast. It stays in the COD but moves towards the unfavorable phases. Hopefully just a blip

My first interpretation is that it appears to have no clue.  I am guessing the green line is the Ensemble mean.  Individual members are showing it emerge literally everywhere.

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

but NYC has been on the greatest 15 year snowfall heater in their history so for them his forecasts havent been nearly as awful.  He probably still over forecasts snow even there...which is hard since they have been getting way above normal snow most years

I was completely unaware of this phenomenon.  I haven't noticed anything consistent over the last 15 years, except general warmth.  Any idea on what's behind it?

53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just need this to hold for 16 days and we are good...

What could possibly go wrong?

Well the Euro sniffed out the pac puke 15+ out.  This should balance the karma.  On a serious note, I can't see the TPV in that shot.  Where did it go? 

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll take this into banter to not shift focus in the LR thread. JB was very popular back into the late 90's and 00's with Accuweather and really help kick-start the Accuweather Premium service. He was more rounded and talked almost exclusively weather. He didn't have nearly as much of a bias now. He is still pretty good in some areas, but since his falling out with Accuweather, he moved on and created a new service with WeatherBell. Since the move, he's been pretty boisterous on his opinions with AGW and has become a huge Hype-master for winter weather prospects in the major cities. He's a powder hound that grew up in NJ and Conn. He lives near the State College area still after working at Accuweather. His twitter account was mostly weather when he started. Now he's pretty political and leans right for a ton of issues. He's a very smart dude that I think has gotten very caught up in propaganda and he's really lost it recently. He's somewhat respected in the weather community, but he's rubbed people the wrong way enough times now and people are over it. That's all I got. 

Yeah, I should have put it in banter to begin with.  We are doing pretty well keeping the main thread streamlined.  I remember him at Accuweather.  I used to like Accuweather but it really seems to have gone down-hill and traded usability for flashy site design.  Same crap happened to weatherunderground. 

I didn't realize JB was weatherbell.

I have never really considered a pay service since it seems everything I need for my level I can get for free here or from tropical tidbits.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Lastly...and I can only speak for myself...but I can excuse a lot of the hype and snow weenie stuff...but IMO he flat out lies and tells people what he things will get him clicks and subscriptions from snow weenies and I cannot accept that lack of integrity.

Yes, I think I remember you mentioning this concern last year.  He has a pay site right, so constantly hyping snow might drive up subscriptions.  But I also think he would have a lot of non-repeat customers after a while.

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

CMC remains the coldest for Xmas (40s) with GFS (50s) the warmest.  Euro looks in the middle (50).  Its the only thing of interest for that particular day so I continue to look at it. 

Doesn't the Canadian have a very notable cold bias?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Only thing I feel confident in is that we should ignore JB tweets. The only thing worse than his social commentary is his weather commentary. 

Opinion of him is pretty negative on this site.  I wonder how he got to be some famous in the first place.  Did he just get lucky as few times?

4 hours ago, yotaman said:

Forecast blew it last night with a predicted low of 27. We dropped to 33 after midnight then the wind picked up from the northeast and the temp rose to 35. By early morning it finally dropped to 31 which was our low. Tonight's forecast is for 26 and it looks like we may make it. It's 28 in New Bern right now but not sure what mby is reading as I am at work. I am 15 feet higher than the airport and 10 miles to the southeast so we will see. Hopefully we will finally drop into the 20's tonight in mby. Looks like it is our last chance for 20's this year.

How in the world did you manage to avoid the 20s during that November cold spell?  I guess the oceans were still pretty warm at that time so a lot of moderation at the coast.

So anyone have any knowledge about weather dynamics in the high latitudes?  How cold or not it is down here is largely a function of how much or how little arctic air we get shunted our way.  But factors control how cold or mild the source regions are? 

Just naively, I might think that it is the inverse of the mid-latitudes.  By that I mean, that high latitudes will tend to be mild if there is a large amount of arctic air transported down south, and will tend to be cold if they get isolated from the mids.  Under that theory I would expect the arctic regions to be cold in a +AO, because they are isolated from the mids.  Conversely, in a -AO, I would expect the source regions to be mild since they are constantly loosing cold to the south.

But I don't consistently see that sort of anomaly pattern.  Seems more often for anomalies to hemispherically correlated, or meridianally correlated.

Its something I have been wondering about for a long time.

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its okay

Meh.

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m silent because I’m withholding judgment. Since the gefs has an underdispersion issue I tend to take a 24 hour cycle of runs as one entity in my mind. It cuts down on mood swings. So while I admit 18z was alarming I’m not assigning the gefs is caving yet. But I do think it was rushing the progression anyways. 

I am disappointed so far. I thought we would do a little better to this point. We’ve had some workable looks. A couple perfect h5 tracks where low level temps were a tad too warm. A trailing wave that was a string out mess.  A couple scenarios where we needed progressive and it trended amplified. This last one wasn’t an awful look but the lead wave died and despite a good 50/50 the high was pathetic and couldn’t hold long enough to get any front end with the second wave. 

I’m not saying we should have had 10”+ by now or anything but with a little luck we could be sitting on 3-5” region wide if a couple of those went slightly better and the whole mood in here would be different. Now we go into the first dead period having struck out so far. I’ll admit that’s a little depressing. 

I have seen some people mention complaints that ensemble members tend to follow the control these days.  The way they say it is like its a new problem that was not present in the past.  Is this a real thing?

Are the EPS/GEPS "better dispersed"? 

How can you evaluate the sufficiency of dispersion?  In other words, what leads to the conclusion that the GEFS is underdispersed instead of the Euro is overdispoersed?