cbmclean

Just now, 87storms said:

i think subthreads wouldn't be a horrible idea.  not sure if this board even has that option, but i think that would allow some side chatter without pissing off the mods.

Well the Banter thread is devoted to side chatter, but I just can't figure out how to quote a post from the main thread in the Banter thread.

Sometimes someone posts something in the main thread that I want to joke about but obviously do not want to clutter it up.  Isn't there a way to respond to a post from one thread but in a different thread?

10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Apparently, the ensemble system has skill out to 10.4 days versus 9.8 for the current system with 2-3 hours of the additional skill due to the additional ensemble members. 

What is the definition of "skill" in this technical context?

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Man just the thought of that happening two years in a row...*rips hair out* Thankfully it's a far away fantasy as of now, lol

Hey, what's wrong with that thought?

Seriously though I'm not going to be a rude guest in another forum and try to advocate for my backyard.  I dream of a big one where we all get slammed.  I think it happened back in the great 1899 cold outbreak.  That should score high on Maestrobjwa's WDI.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GfS doubling down. Even more suppressive for the period after next weeks storm.  1047 high in the plains might try to suppress it  

 

I have seen several posts recently showing damning evidence of notable cold bias for the east on NCEP products (can't remember if it was GFS or GEFS, or maybe both).  At this point, do you see any reason not to conclude that the GFS op if on on its own little fantasy tangent and can be safely discounted? 

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hope this helped some.  I don’t know if I explained it well enough. Sorry if I came off flippant earlier I didn’t mean to be. 

Yes, it is actually very helpful.  I really appreciate your taking the time to pass along this knowledge.

It will be a shame if our nice west-based block is wasted by blocking in Pacific poop. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The h5 look matters a lot more than that chart. Guidance all agrees with a west based block. Unfortunately most guidance ruins it with a hostile pac.  

Well that is what confuses me.  The chart mentioned that it is defined at 500 hp as opposed to the older 1000 HP.hp.  So are you just saying that the index, at whatever level it is taken, only gives a very rudimentary approximation of the state of blocking?

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Massiello nailed the blocking episode mid month when he was all alone on that. Impressive. 

Sorry for the ignorance on my part, but the blocking that you are referring to, I am not seeing anything showing up on the NAO forecast, and I was under the impression that it was the teleconnection most reflective of the kind of blocking we (eastern CONUS) like to see.  I did note a predicted nice little negative event on the AO, but I thoght taht teh AO reflected the strength (or lack thereof) of the polar jet stream.  Is it also conencted to "blocking"?

CPC NAO outlooks range from "hmm" to "ugh" with a mean of "meh".

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Being honest with what I'm seeing... Ens are starting to converge on AN temps leading into and on Christmas. Still a lot of time for changes and not spiking any footballs but the pattern progression makes sense and imho it's becoming more likely as the days go by. 

It may be unscientific, but if the Pac puke is inevitable, I kind of feel like I just want it to go ahead and get it over with so we can move on.  The bad thing is, there is no guarantee that we move on.

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You’ll like the GGEM today. You’re snowblowing while DC and south is raining. 

As a SE forum guy, I will gladly take cold rain next week it opens the door to the TPV Christmas week.

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

51 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Hmm, has anyone ever seen PSU and Bob together at the same place at the same time?

Zero chance they are the same people. #politics

Could just be a clever ploy to throw us all off.

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill was thinking the same thing...about thinking the same thing.  

Hmm, has anyone ever seen PSU and Bob together at the same place at the same time?

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

3k no doubt is moving towards the ace mesos... HDRPS & RGEM are locked

Is there an NCEP analog to the HRDPS?

Back on Saturday, Jonathan posted a plot of the NAO since August.  I present it together with the AO.  Nothing even remotely suspicious about the date of themost recent 0 crossing is there?

Nope nothing suspicious in the date that the NAO/AO flipped to +

m,n

Well, pac puke looms over all.  Man that bums me out. 

Expected start: Dec 16

Expected end: ???

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’ll be honest, I haven’t been tracking the LR much, if at all.  But it seems like we went through the same thing a week ago when some were commenting on the pac puke in the LR which changed in the MR.  The only thing that seems persistent so far is the LR hasn’t proved accurate.  Best to track within 10 days in my weenie opinion.  

I remember the spike of concern a week or so ago.  This seems more severe as it has BobChill spooked.  If PSU joins, I start looking for a cliff.

Seems like just yesterday thongs were looking up.  Now we have the visage of the dreaded Pac puke looming over us. 

33 minutes ago, frd said:

How long is the question. If you go by Tom's train of thought it could be a while.

Who is Tom?

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Since Bob just said it's going to be 80 on Christmas it better snow this week 

I've experienced an 80 F Christmas.  That aspect was not fun.

9 minutes ago, frd said:

  

    

So while 11 out of 21 members have average or below average vortex strength at the 12/23, but the 10 positive outweigh the -/neutral members?  Is that a valid conclusion?

Oh, and I thought the EPS had 50 members plus control?

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m sure you will get through to him this time! 

Ah that's the Ji we know and love.

If anyone is interested in the two cents of a random out-of-forum visitor, I would say that this is the best regional forum on the board, at least that I have visited.  My home SE forum means well, but we don't have the same model chops as you guys.  NYC and Philly are ok, I guess, haven't spent much time there.  NE is...troubled.  Out west is barely populated.

Specifically for PSU, even your "unproductive" melt-down posts are useful for the uneducated, like me.  There are so many negative nancies, who only dwell on the bad, combined with superweenies, who only hug the good, combined with bipolars who shift back and forth violently between ecstasy and despair.  When a respected, level-headed, intellectually honest personage such as PSU or Bob melts down it s a valuable signal that the prognosis is truly bad.   

10 hours ago, Jonathan said:

Unrelated, but how absolutely incredible is this? The NAO is a living being and it knows EXACTLY when meteorological winter begins. It's like someone flips the POSITIVE switch literally at 12am on 12/1. Unreal.

Take a look at the AO.  It shows the same thing.  Went +on precisely 12/1.