cbmclean

Just saw a post in the banter thread from leesburg 04 that the 12Z  GEFS caved to the EPS.  Is this true? 

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

The powers to be have spoken on that  lol

Its been tried before, once while I have been around.  It immediately devolves into a confusing mash with people posting pattern stuff in the storm thread and storm stuff in the pattern thread.

An ignorant question I know, but when actually are the approximate times that the 00Z/12Z ensembles tend to become available?

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 I don’t see a “win” there but the lesser of the evils imo is the N PAC vortex.

The NPAC vortex is also probably an even lesser of the two evils when it is not preceded by a month long +AO torch that causes Canada to be warm to begin with.  

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

increased thermal gradient in the pac due to the warning base state

I am curious as to why there is an increased thermal gradient.  My understanding is that high latitudes are warming faster than the tropics so I would expect that to lead to a reduced thermal gradient.

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You saying the EPO has no correlation to cold? Cold has a correlation to snow.

But it also has a correlation to dryness.  No moisture, no snow.

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We shouldn't be "afraid" to mention/discuss unfavorable pattern elements that show up on an ens run in a LR thread. 

Maybe we need fainting couches for those who are perpetually on the edge of panic in here. 

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We shouldn't be "afraid" to mention/discuss unfavorable pattern elements that show up on an ens run in a LR thread. 

Maybe we need fainting couches for those who are perpetually on the edge of panic in here. 

I admit to being a fainter, but I try to keep my spells off of the board.

That being said, I am only able to devote a tiny percentage of the time to this hobby that I would like right now so I depend on this board for pretty much all my LR information.  I'm actually going to try to make myself a little chart to encapsulate a subjective opinion the status of how good or bad the pattern looks on the two primary ensembles (GEFS, EPS).  To keep it apples-to-apples I am only going to ignore the 06Z and 18Z GEFS, and just consider at the 00Z and 12Z runs. 

So my plan is to fill in this chart with values from 1 - 10, with 1 being last January and 10 being the best pattern you can imagine.

I accept any and all suggestions for numbers

                        00Z GEFS        00Z EPS

Day1 - 5                3                      3

Day 6 - 10             5                      5

Day 11-15            7                      1

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m opposed to one model posting when it comes to long range. I think all the ensembles have to be considered. It’s too much EPS centered.

 I lurk a lot on here and I'd say the GEFS gets almost as much attention as the EPS.  If the EPS gets a bit more attention, its because it has superior verification scores.  I haven't looked but someone said that the GEPS agrees with the EPS.  So its definitely worth some concern.

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It was sad just watching the last new Jeopardy episode that Alex Trebek taped as the host.  What a legend he was.  RIP.

I watched too.  Hard to believe he's gone.

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Stop worrying about what someone thinks of Ji. Stop worrying about what they think of you.  Stop worrying about if it’s going to snow.  Stop worrying about defending how you worry.  Stop worrying about worrying. Just stop worrying. Find something you enjoy that brings you peace in the moment and do that more.  If you have anxiety I seriously suggest you not invest your emotions in something that is unpredictable and you have no control in and is guaranteed to disappoint you 99% of the time!  That’s a really bad idea.  Do things that give you agency over your emotions. Life’s too short to torture yourself. Plenty of other people will do that for you! 

For some reason this plays in my head like that speech from trainspotting

Choose life. Choose a job. Choose a career. Choose a family. Choose a f--king big television, Choose washing machines, cars, compact disc players, and electrical tin openers. Choose good health, low cholesterol and dental insurance. Choose fixed-interest mortgage repayments. Choose a starter home. Choose your friends. Choose leisure wear and matching luggage. Choose a three piece suite on hire purchase in a range of f--king fabrics. Choose DIY and wondering who the f--k you are on a Sunday morning. Choose sitting on that couch watching mind-numbing spirit-crushing game shows, stuffing f--king junk food into your mouth. Choose rotting away at the end of it all, pissing your last in a miserable home, nothing more than an embarrassment to the selfish, f--ked-up brats you have spawned to replace yourselves. Choose your future. Choose life . . . But why would I want to do a thing like that? I chose not to choose life: I chose something else. And the reasons? There are no reasons. Who needs reasons when you've got heroinsnow?

On 1/4/2021 at 7:24 PM, franklin NCwx said:

Where is frosty, cold rain, brick and mack? Do they still post?

I think Mack moved to Ohio.  He can enjoy all those cutters now.  I was wondering what happened to Cold Rain.  And also Warm Nose.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I see nothing wrong with it 

I guess its events like that that make your commute worth it.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Look...normally I wouldn't do this, but these are desperate times.  I'll allow it.   The NAM at 84 hours H5.....not bad.

Don't look at me like that.

Sorry to stare: not because of NAM extrapolation.  It's just that you remind me of someone famous.  I bet if you weren't wearing a mask I could figure out who it is.

Going to hurt to see my Dolphins sit at home.  Man if they hadn't dropped that game to Denver...

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Better way to get cold into the pattern.  

Someone posted this same frame in the SE forum and it made me raise my eyebrows.  Could that high ridge be suggestive of the mythical cross polar flow?

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not the joke it used to be. I know it teased a south solution in mid Dec but it still caught on way before the GFS. And it was the first model to catch that crazy deform band that ended up giving places 40”. Yes it was too far south with it but it depicted that feature for days when other guidance had no clue.  

Doesn't it compete with GFS for second place with general verification scores?

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep..and Eps started the party off right at 144 hr 

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Much better confluence setup on 00z gfs at 99 hours so far. Should end up decreasing the ridge out ahead of any system

Question for anyone.  How does confluence impact geopotential height?

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And as i look out big fluffy flakes are falling. What is happening lol  

bootleg snowflakes.

11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Thanks, they don't seem too interested up there right now but maybe that's the near term pattern rather than the longer view potential

Bootleg.

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Looking into a lot of what’s being discussed right now...regardless of the outcome this year...a very strong SSW that couples could be good for blocking prospects next winter as well, especially if there are subsequent events 

So is there some sort of inter-seasonal memory?  I had never heard that.

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

How's Mongolia looking?

They lost contact.  The whole country was crushed under the weight of that ginormous high.

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

in november Eric Webb looked at the EPS and said pump this pattern into my veins.

 

NC still hasnt seen a flake outside the western mountains

Actually there were widespread snow flurries in NC on Christmas day as a result of the forcing from that Mega-front.  I saw some in Old Fort NC (just east of Asheville) and my parents saw some in Hope Mills (just southwest of Fayetteville).  Of course, nothing stuck but it was still nice to see on Christmas.

16 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I know we're kinda focused on the ultra long range mid jan into feb but boy does the weather pattern look boring the next couple weeks.  Only really 2 storm systems and they're both undoubtedly rain for most of us. 

Third straight year of torch for the first 1/3 to 1/2 of January.  It's becoming a New Year's tradition.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

If you believe in the big three indices then you probably suspect something possible around the 10th. 

Which three are those?  I assume you include the NAO and AO.  What is the third?  PNA or EPO?  I am assuming PNA because the EPO looked stuck positive for the foreseeable future when last I saw a few days ago.

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How so?  Most of what I saw was epic blocking and positive temp departure discussion. It might get better after we punt most of January.  We are on the threshold of hell.  How can it get any worse at 0z? 

The blocking could disappear leaving only the positive anomalies.