cbmclean
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Posts posted by cbmclean
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1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:
Low 21 shot up 48 this afternoon at the same reporting station. Wow 37 degrees was a huge swing.
love the early vodka like COLD
27 °F?
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1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:
ETA: And that blizzard occurred after a gut-punching warm December that was +11 on the month!!
December 2015 will haunt my dreams for a long time, and not in a good way. Down here in NC we were 70+ for like two weeks straight. It was a warm, soupy airmass as well. Didn't get below 60 F for days on end at night. Mosquitoes and gnats were buzzing. Had to cut on the AC. I think it actually ht 80 F on Christmas day where I was.
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For those counting, it has been precisely 40 days since RDU notched 100 F back on October 3. 40 days between the last (and only 100 F) day of the year and the first sighting of frozen precip at RDU. I wonder if that is a record.
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Ah, hello guys, its your brother-from-another-mother down south. I will be lurking around here because this continues to better sub-forum than my home, as far as hardcore meteorological analysis.
I was considering looking into the MJO forecasts but I am concerned I am am just starting the pain early. Still having flashbacks from last year's leisurely grand tour through the ugly phases, followed by a lightning rocket through the good, right back to bad.
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Got down to 28.6 F last night.
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1 hour ago, Solak said:
RAH --- model problems and forecasting for NC.
That Arctic front, analyzed at 20Z this afternoon from cntl WI swwd to srn IA, then wnwwd across srn and wrn NE and cntl WY, will be preceded by an increasingly closely-spaced but separate front analyzed from nern OH swwd across cntl IN/IL/MO, sern KS, and the OK and TX panhandles. A distinction between the two is critical for two related reasons regarding how quickly cold, particularly Arctic air, arrives in cntl NC: 1) the models tend to depict hypergradients about such closely-spaced fronts as one and 2) how the models (fail to accurately) resolve the Appalachian mountains yields a premature Arctic air surge in the lee of the mountains. Consider the past two early season Arctic frontal passages in cntl NC, for example, from Halloween night and last Thu/Nov 7. In both cases the models rushed the cold air east of the Appalachians prematurely relative to reality. These model failures are one of the chief reasons that a pattern such as the one described above, with "cold air chasing the moisture", fails to produce wintry precipitation in cntl NC. Nevermind that it's still Nov. And it provides an opportunity for failure of even the best of NWP ensemble systems that depict accumulating snow in cntl NC, and for a human to add forecast skill and value. With that in mind, a band of anafrontal rain, driven by the right entrance region of a strong (125-150 kt) swly upr jet streak from the cntl Appalachians to the Labrador Sea, behind the lead front described above, will edge ewd across cntl NC late Mon night and (particularly early) Tue - in a pattern very similar to the band of anafrontal rain that occurred last Thu/Nov 7. The Arctic boundary will then sweep sewd across cntl NC through early-mid afternoon Tue, with following much below average temperatures, including teens to low-mid 20s Wed morning, and highs only in the upr 30s to low-mid 40s on Wed.
I was coming here to post the exact same thing. A good explanation of why we so often fail.
I wonder what it is about the Appalachians that make it so hard to resolve.
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Got down to 27.3 last night. Not bad for the first third of November in the Coastal Plain.
Hope all the gnats have gone to meet their Maker.
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I would find it hilarious if even one token snowflake was sited ~ 6 weeks after we hit 100 F at RDU.
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2 hours ago, JacobNC said:
we’re on a climo-busting roll this year, with the hottest day of the year being in October.
Yeah, but these days, we tend to bust climo the other way. I'd be happy to just have a cool crisp November.
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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:
I remember RDU went multiple days without getting above 32.. it was crazy. Couple years ago I think. The pond behind my house froze more solid than I've ever seen it! (and it rarely freezes as it is)
It was at the tail end of December 2017 and the beginning of January 2018. RDU set their record for most consecutive hours below 32F: Just under 10 days. Some areas of the Pamlico/Albemarle sounds froze. Got down to 0 F at my house in Wilson, which is quite an accomplishment.
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18 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:
Would be nice but I honestly can't buy it, I think I've become a complete cynic when it comes to cold around here. I think this winter will end up a repeat of last year without the early Dec storm. We've been above average for so long it doesn't seem like there's any pattern that can deliver below normal for more than a random day or two.
I agree with your overall point, but less than two years ago we had a generational 10-day cold spell in NC at least. We've had three or four equivalent warm spells though..
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3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:
Temps thru Oct.20th.
GSP +5.2
HKY +4.9
AVL +5.8
RDU +3.7
GSO +4.3
CAE +5.9
AND
CLT +6.2
You Charlotte guys really need to get a delegation together and check on the site location of that sensor package.
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Got 1.65". Totals 4.38" since last Sunday. Putting a sizable dent in the deficit! Cooler temps also reduces the evaporation, so the soil moisture should be doing some nice recovery.
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1.71" of wonderful rain today. Makes 2.74" since Sunday. Definitely much needed,.
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Hit 1.03"! Plus a rumble of thunder! Wonders never cease.
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Some strange liquid substance falling from the sky. Not sure what to make of it.
0.86" so far.
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Is it too early to start looking for a fantasy -NAO? From the CPC 8 - 14 day forecast.
One feature being closely monitored is the potential for ridge development over the North Atlantic south of Greenland (shown by the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles). Should this feature develop, this would teleconnect well with increased troughing across much of the Eastern CONUS.
Nothing could go wrong here could it?
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5 hours ago, Solak said:
RDU just hit 100F at 207 PM EDT, further breaking the all-time October high temp record. Daily highs were also broken at GSO (94F so far) and FAY (99F so far)
I would love to see a rigorous analysis of RDU temp statistics based on observation locations. Over the last decade or so, seems like like instances of it being warmer than KFAY are becoming way more common. I have to question the reality of that.
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Really more of a banter post but maybe you guys will indulge me.
Realities that I need to learn to accept .
1. There is nothing remotely fallish about September now. It is August part deux.
2. December is a fall month (except for random episodes like our early snow last year)
3. February is a spring month.
4. The NAO/AO will be positive (except maybe in March/April). Do not believe any forecast which shows them negative for a significant period of time.
5. The SER loves me and knows what's best for me.
6. Repeat: the NAO/AO will not be negative. Do not buy into the weekly forecasts
7. Whenever models disagree, always trust the warmer one.
8. Seriously: do not expect the NAO/AO to ever go truly negative in DEC - FEB again.
9. Models will flawlessly pick-up on warm spells except they underestimate their intensity .
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17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:
NWS GSP office has this on their AFD page - records for the coming week before the cooldown:
RECORDS FOR 09-30 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 85 1981 50 1924 65 2018 30 1967 1941 1955 1897 1927 KCLT 91 1926 56 1984 72 1904 38 1888 KGSP 94 1933 59 1984 70 1954 32 1888 RECORDS FOR 10-01 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1941 49 1920 65 1971 29 1895 1897 KCLT 92 1954 60 1899 72 1881 39 1899 KGSP 93 1911 61 1984 71 1971 39 1993 1947 1899 RECORDS FOR 10-02 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 51 1958 65 1971 28 1895 KCLT 92 1986 52 1958 72 1986 36 1899 1954 KGSP 93 1933 50 1958 69 1941 35 1895 1884 RECORDS FOR 10-03 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 88 1954 56 1987 66 1941 23 1895 1929 KCLT 91 1986 56 1974 72 1898 36 1974 1954 1958 1883 1926 KGSP 92 1884 56 1958 70 2007 30 1974 1898 RECORDS FOR 10-04 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1986 54 1921 67 1941 22 1895 KCLT 95 1954 60 1974 72 1898 33 1974 KGSP 94 1954 58 1957 72 1941 32 1974 RECORDS FOR 10-05 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1941 50 1980 65 1998 29 1968 KCLT 97 1954 57 1980 73 1986 38 2014 1974 KGSP 96 1954 56 1980 70 2007 33 1974 1954 RECORDS FOR 10-06 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1941 49 1932 64 2005 33 2010 1955 1974 1895 1970 KCLT 98 1954 58 1883 71 1954 38 1935 1884 KGSP 97 1954 56 1968 70 2018 39 1985 1979 1964Wow. 1954 was a miserable early October.
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On 9/19/2019 at 1:50 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said:
I've always hated these maps. The passing eye would think 'scorcher' but in reality, a 30% probability is just as likely not to verify.
Even better is the experimental 12.5 month forecast for Oct-Nov-Dec 2020. The good cheer never ends.
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3 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:
Good stuff. It's interesting to see so many sequential years for AVL. Especially 1925, '26' 27.
Amazing how warm 1925 was; must have been awful in those pre-AC days looking forward to Fall relief and getting a face full of high summer.
Also, amazing how soupy last year was at Asheville.
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Radar shows the line is dying. Bummer. Did get 0.53" from the prefrontal convection. Was hoping for more though.
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Maddening week. It has rained four separate times over the last two days and I have netted a total of 0.17". Hoping the system on Friday delivers the goods.
October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Right now ( I mean this past decade) reality is skewing warm. I think that frustrates most people on this forum, which makes us quick to lash out. I know I constantly have to fight against a natural desire to pay attention when someone predicts "COLD COLD", but dismiss those saying "WARM, WARM" as idiots.