cbmclean

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Almost a total cave to the euro on the Dec 22 storm. Gfs went from the idea of sliding the upper low across the south to cutting it through Minnesota in one run. It still holds onto some stj wave but mostly it was a cave to the euro. 

Eh, only took it until D8/9 to cave.  The more painful ones are when it is insistent at like D4/5 and then caves.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

I think I’d want to try living in an actual snow climate for a year, but I almost love the chase more than anything. 300” almost seems boring. Why watch the models if you get 4” of snow for free every night and a blizzard every two weeks?

I have always suspected that the population of snow weenies in the upper NY snow belt is probably pretty small, just for that reason.

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My yard got over 300" in 95-96 and the ski areas got 4-500. I was depressed when the season ended. 

Were you depressed because all the snow didn't make you truly happy, or just because the season was over and you still wanted snow?

A very wet day.  1.67" so far.

2 hours ago, FLweather said:

Fog and low 70s. Had some decent rains yesterday and today... not much though.

Nice looking storms in the cool sector over AL and FL panhandle atm. 

Hopefully the line of storms will grow as the trough axis swings through early morning. 

Hello FLweather.  It is nice to see a regular poster from FL on this board.  We are pretty heavily skewed to the Carolinas.

28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

You were a youngin then compared to me lol. But yea... I think the 11 news finally picked up on the threat but NC had no warning and they got freaking crushed. 

Ah, the famed Carolina crusher.  Raleigh got 21 or 22 inches.  Baffled our forecasters in a good way.

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nobody mentioned the GEFS 5-day 2m temp avgs thru the entire run are BN aside from 1 AN panel at the start and a N panel. Really believing the moderation is going to be muted and transient. Alas, it is the GEFS but verification hasn't been shoddy lately.

I am interested in how it caves.  Will it be all at once, or will it be gradual over a couple of days? 

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey @Bob Chill (or somebody else who may know)...I'm trying to remember...was the awful Dec 2010 nina-induced miss the last time we didn't have to deal with a hostile pac to end the month?

Depends on what you mean by hostile.  Right at Christmas 2017 the weather turned chilly, then cold then bitter.  I think that was a +EPO cold dump.  But it was bone dry

50 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

 

I love that movie.

GEFS shows MJO skipping the maritime area and looping back to 1.  Perhaps why it is not yet seeing the nasty Pacific.

EPS has a spaghetti bomb in the COD.

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

"Int. 0z"

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

Yes, he posted it earlier today, but the situation has not improved.

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Of all the flies in the ointment to have... The -PNA is the one that is the biggest slap in the face....

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

-PNA and +EPO.  Not so much a fly in the ointment as a buzzard.

55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is a legit torch towards the end. CMC/GFS would be the same if the phantom storm wasn't there. If it's going to happen then lets just get it out of the way sooner rather than later. 

Another post from Bob Chill.

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

How hostile...

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

Exactly the opposite of what we want.  BobChill posted this image in the MA thread.

Been lurking in the MA thread.  Things were looking up yesterday, but today has been an absolute disaster in the LR.  Apparently the PAC is setting up to become super hostile just in time to completely defeat an apparent -NAO/-AO episode. 

Well went to bed last night feeling good.  Euro had at least partially caved to the GFS on the TPV, hints of serious cold right before Xmas etc.  Woke up and the first post was PSU saying "So much for the torch".  Then it all went downhill.

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There’s the cold!!!

 

I am curious why large ares of the west are "missing" shown in white.  Is it because they are at high elevation, and the 850 HP level is at or below the surface?

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember. We were in a Nina with no blocking.   Did you really buy that 72 hour 36” overrunning look?  Is there any prescedence for that?  We did get the cold though. It was a frigid week with a couple minor snows. Typical Nina cold pattern. 

That cold snap was very memorable for me.  Hit 0 at my house for the first time.  Ponds frozen over for the only time in my memory.  Heck there was fringe ice forming at the outer banks.

For me, that was worth five 'big" (for NC) snows.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh yea, I’m laughing now but if it plays out that way again I’ll be hurting for sure. 

That well-timed lobe was much celebrated down in NC.  I do not expect that luck to be repeated. 

I am just trying to avoid the Torchmass threat.

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Yes... but just don't care about the team nowadays... maybe when they get rid of Allen or if the team gets sold to someone new I'll care again

I can sympathize.  I am a Dolphins fan, so I have been wandering in the wilderness for whats seems like forever.  I still care though.

I am curious, are there any Redskins fans left in the MA, or has decades of frustration run them all off?

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It could happen...we’ve seen perfect h5 presentations lead to rain before. January 2016 we had one before the blizzard. But the antecedent airmass was really bad then. This will have some cold in front. I am skeptical of the warm solution with that track. I can remember a few times mid winter when from range guidance saw a warmer profile with a southern track system then was reality. We will see. 

I think there was a good h5 last January right after New Years that was a rainer due to the MJO warm phases Grand Tour that was then in process.  I remember Bob sickened by it.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For the record I think you have the perfect balance of freedom with basic ground rules and decency standards here. Thanks for that!  You and all the mods. 

I didn't realize the world of weather enthusiast forums was so cutthroat.

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I was *this* close to yelling FFS out loud at the happy hour GFS turn a classic track into cold rain.

I misread that as "into a cold train" and was wondering why that was annoying.

31 minutes ago, 87storms said:

honestly, i don't like the cold lol

For me personally, I like cold almost as much, if not more sometimes than snow.  I'd prefer to have both, but if forced to choose I think I would rather have a dusting or two among a period of sustained cold than a "big one" that all melts the next way.

Keep in mind that since I live in eastern NC, a "big one" is 4 - 6 inches lol.

It is of course, all personal preference.