cbmclean

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

My home forum is now sad.

24 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I’ve been pretty optimistic and I still think we we’re in the game, especially if the high octane solutions of the GFS pan out. With a “big dog”, we don’t necessarily need to be in the epicenter to receive significant snows. That being said, if we trend towards less favorable solutions this suite, I will be moving on and catching up on some of the work I put off this week because I was model watching instead.

Isn't model watching your work?  Surely all Meteorologist's sole purpose is to track potential snow?

A real storm threat means the LR thread goes into hibernation.

So I think it may be time to compile a list of acceptable euphemisms for AGW for use in the main threads.  The two I have so far are

"THAT"

"The elephant"

2 hours ago, Scraff said:

Inoculum is fricking amazing. \m/

Anyway Perfect Circle is good, but when I’m listening to them, I always find myself wishing it was Tool. Lol

Sleeping Beauty is one of my favorite songs.

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

have we ever gone a winter without an arctic air blast?

2011-12 was notably warm wall-to-wall.

2 hours ago, frd said:

Hmmm. Pac extension , cyclonic wave breaking, develop Aleutian High and potentially another strat hit.  

 

 

 

For the less educated among us, what, if anything does thus imply for us?

My SE brethren in ecstasy right now.  It's going to hurt all the more when it turns into a cold rain for us.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

cutter suppressed cutter... it knows our climo 

Growing up in the SE, I never realized the MA had to work so hard to get its snow.

3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

The constituency is a little spooky.

No political discussions.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we're going to fail might as well do it in the most epic way possible!!

Let's say there is a hypothetical poster who lives in NC but who hangs out here because of the superior analysis.  If this Southern slider should verify as sown by the GFS, would that poster be in danger of being run out of the forum?

Asking for a friend.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Amazing scarily pathetic!

Don't worry, soon it will be routine and not so disturbing.

12 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Another hit 

 

How many final blows can the PV take in one season?

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

its going north like 100 miles every run lol

My poor SE forum brethren were beginning to latch onto this one.  Given the general lack of cold in the pattern I knew this one will be headed north.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It also doesn’t help that even a direct shot of Arctic air isn’t really all that deep to resist a fairly weak wave. 

Can you clarify what "deep" means in this context?  Do you mean that the air mass isn't that cold?  Or that the cold is only shallow to the surface?  Both?  Neither?

33 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

This threat is a legit one. Could be a big snowstorm for NC and SC.

If you're interested, I take notice.

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I’ll be the bad guy and say it

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

It's infuriating.   The GFS is the stormchaserchuck of models.  

Can you tell the GFS to shut up?

2 hours ago, Avdave said:

This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. 

Looks like a Palmetto state special

Wheres the NW trend when you need it?

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How does that work? NY State is even struggling to get cold air...the GFS has rain to Buffalo half the friggen waves this run yet the sister para can bleed enough polar air to get snow over the SE states? I get suppression,  that is a chance we risk with that block, but SE snow with our cold air struggles? I'm not buying it. The only parallel isn't the GFS sister model, its gotta be the universe im apparently living in. 

I wouldn't worry to much about it.  Last year, amidst the simultaneous raging ++++AO with Pacific Doom Blob, the GFS somehow managed to spit out snowstorm for Jacksonville, Florida.  It was gone the next run, and needless to say, it didn't happen.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

This war between the cmc/euro v gfs can’t go on too much longer because the major differences wrt to how they handle the the ridge which leads to the different solutions is evident by only about 100 hours. One side has to cave soon.  

I know who I have my money on.

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But nothing else shows that I thought the CMC was the same?

47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December 

December was just plain average here in most of NC.  But that's actually a huge win compared to the last five years and also how things were looking in many of the seasonal forecasts in the fall.

35 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

I don;t have access to any EPO forecasts.  So what's the current state?  In PSU's recent progression e-mails he has mentioned an upcoming -EPO event which will unfortunately dump into the west.  Is that not happening now?

And as much as these guys annoy me, they have been correct the last several years about several advertised -EPO periods that never materialized (but man they seem to make a special effort to do so as pompously and arrogantly as possible). 

ETA: I see my question was answered before I even asked it.

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

Is "WB's JB" =  Joe Bastardi?