cbmclean

Jackson about to have himself a 300/100 game

ETA: He HAS a 300/100 game.

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

This game. The ICON is the Cleveland Browns of modeling. If you believe it’s going to be anything but a laughing stock that’s just self-inflicted pain. Ravens were by far the best team in the NFL this regular season. 

Kind of surprising that The Germans can't put out a better model.  Maybe all of their A-team work on the Euro.

Just now, Solution Man said:

Correct, you need to go for it when your only chance is to get the ball back with 4 mins

I screwed up on my math, they would only need one 2-pointer.

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That can’t be rationally explained 

I don't think it was as idiotic as it seems.  They were down by 22, so they needed three TDs with two 2 pters.  Kicking the singleton now doesn't change that it, just delays the inevitable.  In fact, they might be more likely to make the two pointer now it now when they are less tired.

ETA: Never mind, I had a brain fart, down 22 means they only need one 2 pointer.

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Remember that early 90s Bill's comeback . The fans were scaling the walls and fences to get back in lol

As a Dolphins fans, I hated the Bills and man that comeback stung.  It started very soon after halftime though.  Time is really an enemy right for the Ravens right now.

According to ESPN, Tennessee's win probability just dropped from 99% to 98.1%

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

It isnt over yet. 

Well, a comeback has to start somewhere.

I'm not a Raven's fan, but I honestly feel for you guys tonight.  It really sucks to see a special season end due to one bad game. (well unless it is the 2007 Patriots). 

It doesn't always happen, but it seems to occur a lot more than I would expect statistically, where a team dominates in the regular season, has a first round bye and comes in a just lays a  egg in their first play-off game.

I have am beginning to suspect that the Pacific Doom Blob achieved sentience some time last week and has determined that the most effective way to feed off of our tears it to temporarily lay low and let the models depict a false pattern shift only to pop up at the last minute to crush our dreams.  It's called torture by hope.

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

I’ll take a p2/p14 blend, and never post again!

Did you mean p2/p13?

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Man, you guys gotta be lovin the 12z gefs. Really upped the odds of a SE frozen event. Considering how far out in time the window is it's remarkable how many member solutions drop snow/ice/sleet in the SE. Hurry up and wait for now but at least there's reason for some optimism 

As I was joking about up in your thread, we are more disturbed by the 12z op than we are enthused by the 12z gefs.  We are like beaten dogs.

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

like seeing the gefs and eps picking up on numerous solutions that dump frozen in NC.

We would be excited but we are too busy jumping off the cliff due to the 12z GFS.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It was mostly my fault. I’ve seen that pac look destroy winters a few times and I got spooked. I was wrong (hopefully). 

The numbers do support the danger of that look but by presenting it the way I did it obviously conveyed more doom than warranted. I did post the good and bad outcomes and said that the bad was only likely if the look persisted past mid month but it was obvious I was nervous and that spooked the resident weenies. I’ll take the blame for that one. 

ETA: any suggestions what I should do with my reaper check? 

I freely admit to being one of the spook-ees  I did not fully comprehend the nature of the duration caveat.  I though the pattern was such that when it reached full development, it always stuck around.

Although in my defense, that post did have a pre-post which advertised it as " the least popular post in americanwx history. "

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

About half of us do iirc. From Dec-Feb I count how much the bay freezes over as a winter grade. There's a pond back in the woods of a nature center near my house that I skate around on when it's safe. Need good cold for that. Ice was over 10" thick in Feb 2014. I personally find cold/dry quite enjoyable until Mar. Once we hit Mar it should either be snowing or 60-70. Anything else sucks

I love cold, any way, any place, any how.  Cold with moisture is a bonus.

I was out of circulation on the GEFS the last few days, other than what people were posting.  Did it fully cave?

54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like we won't be getting much sleep beginning in about a week. Anyone who's insane like us and stays up for the euro when things are ripe needs to plan accordingly 

I prefer that way to the alternative where I am loosing sleep because I'm emotionally disturbed by the torch. 

Realistically, not a good look for the SE for frozen, but I will take dry cold shots over Pacific Doom Blob any day.

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What about the opposite? Like 2010 when they couldn't buy a flake up there while we got buried? Lol (was that a rare case where a warm Canada wasn't bad? Haha)

Was it 2010?  I remember a year around then when the NAO/AO was so persistently in our favor that it kept funneling warm air up in eastern Canada while I had record cold.  Not sure what was happening in NW Canada at that time.

I think that was like the grand finale of good AO/NAO blocking it has been almost universally crappy since then (with a few exceptions).

Well we settle in for our long winter's shut-out nap.  So as others have noted we are actually in the midst of a pattern change.  Unfortunately it's changing between abominable to execrable. 

So the general consensus is that while the Pac Puke (PP) is horrible, the Pacific Doom Blob (PDB) is even worse.  For the sake of debate I ask: is it really worse?

Certainly they both completely destroy snow chances for the MA (we won't even mention my home area).  BUT with the PDB, at least there is a trough in the west and a tendency for decent cold to exist in NW Canada.  Whereas the PP as we know completely scours all semblance of cold out of the entire continent.  So one might expect that the PDB might be easier to recover from because a shuffle could at least theoretically dislodge the cold our way.  

As for persistence I'm not sure which way to grade it.  We all know that if you even get a taste of the Pac Puke it knocks you out for a week, minimum, and those AK vortexes can get embedded as ticks.  PSU has shown that IF the PDB sets up shop for an extended period of time, it never leaves, but we don't have the data to see how often it might set up for "only" 10 days, vs a whole month.

Any thoughts?

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Been out having fun. Ended with 5.2”. 

 

Nice haul for an event that had so many flaws.  What is your total for the season?

12 minutes ago, Mersky said:

A cold Canada is a good thing. The PV is getting elongated which is clearly visible on the ensembles. The MJO is heading to the colder phases later this month into February when winter usually occurs around these parts. And all your worrying and you got snow today lol 

A cold Canada may or may not have any impact here.  I mean I like seeing it just because I like the inherent idea of cold anywhere, but there have been winters where the cold stayed completely bottled up in there.  I haven't seen any evidence of the MJO going into the cold phases.  Both the GEFS and EPS seem to have it headed to the COD, which is certainly better than currently, but not particularly good.

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Urban. Heat. Island.

Yikes that is stiff.

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Temp actually went up 2 degrees at BWI. Was 38 last hour, now 40F. What would be causing that?

If the wind has freshened up, then that will mix the boundary layer at the surface which has been radiatively cooling.

Got down to 30.2 this morning, so at least I will have one light freeze on the books. 

Also the windshield was frosted over.  Can you consider that frozen precipitation?

32 minutes ago, CustomWX said:

The 18z GFS based on the Weatherbell maps, is the most classic case of the Wake county gradient. 

 

Wasn't there a guy here who lived in that far south corner.  That map must make him physically ill.