cbmclean

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

He is never wrong when he calls for cold and snow so we’re good. 

The bathtub will slosh in our direction sometime, right?

2 hours ago, WeatherPSU said:

Dr. Haybear of PSU indicates a massive pattern flip early February. Uses the fog methodology. 

Thoughts are that when we have a warm and damp period with fog it is usually accompanied by some SECS.  Look for this as we head into February - a classic set-up to come. 

Sorry, I do not mean to be rude, but is this post serious, or is it a parody?  I have to admit it does not make any sense to me.

1 hour ago, Mersky said:

Gfs extended 

So using my education gained from PSUHoffman's Climo class room, (and other posts from him and others on this forum) I see 50/50 Low.  Mostly troughing in PNA domain.  Pacific Doom Blob is trying to turn into EPO ridge, but it is too far west to do any good.  Some ridging in NAO domain, but centered too far south.  TPV in Hudson Bay, nothing particularly good there.  So overall this is a bad setup, right (somebody break out the red grading pin).

1 hour ago, Mersky said:

Gfs extended 

Now THAT is a west coast trough.

On 12/31/2019 at 12:01 PM, psuhoffman said:

As CAPE said this is a great look for the west. Cold and snowy. Could be too cold for the northern ski resorts but places like Colorado when it’s sunny isn’t that cold. I skied Stramboat when it was -25 with the sun out and it actually felt ok.  During a storm with wind at -25 though...forget it. 

But Alta in Utah is already up near 200” on the year with 20-30” expected in the next 72 hours. Yes they get a lot of snow but that’s still a great start with their snowiest months yet to come.  I know Revelstoke was doing pretty good also last time I checked. 

I’m heading out there either the last weekend  in January or the first 2 weekends of Feb and I’m salivating already. With this pattern they should be found great with all backcountry chutes and bowls open. 

ETA: you have to get pretty far north in the east for that to be a good look. Depending on how much the boundary can press and where the TpV near Greenland is it CAN be a good pattern for the mountains in northern New England. Northern NY Vermont and Maine. But if the TPV isn’t far enough south this can be a rain pattern even up there.  I was up around Quebec City in the winter of 2008 (comp year to this coming pattern) and it rained all the way to where I was near Le Massif at 3000 feet elevation 40 miles north of Quebec City in mid winter.  That’s about as rare a feat for them as a warning snow is for us. 

Hey PSU.  If you are bored and are just looking for stuff to do, I would be really interested in seeing a similar dissertation about crappy patterns.  For example, my understanding is that the crap that started right before Christmas is a different sort of fail from the Pacific Doom Blob that we will soon be enjoying.  I think in one of your posts today you mentioned it as a north Pacific problem as opposed to a SW Pacific problem. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 (1989, 2002, 2008, 2012)

I thought that 2012 was a pig Alaska vortex, sort of like the crappy pattern we are just getting out of, as opposed to the one we are going into.

Guidance still continuing on predictions that MJO wave will go strong into crap phases followed by degradation into the COD.  I am starting to really dislike the SW Pacific region. 

Well for those of you who really dislike progressive patterns, at least there won't be that.

My only goal now is to try and somehow avoid January being the #1 record warm.  Right now things aren't looking good.

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the +3 AO I almost expected to see the QBO had stalled. Once near 0 like it is now, in descending mode it should be helpful. 

I said back in fall that I wasn’t sure how much climate change had rendered seasonal analogs useless and this year would be telling imo. Because the climate models all said +NAM warm winter. They seem to have nailed it. But a warm neutral enso following a nino, descending QBO flipping, low solar, Atlantic Tripole, northeast pac warm pool winter should be at least somewhat cold/snowy. But recently other historically snowy enso neutral years had gone more crap. I posed the question, was that just bad luck or an indication enso neutral years are skewing less snowy in the new climate regime. If this year fails to me it leans more climate change then luck imo. 

Never heard of Atlantic tripole before.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It doesn’t look good but there are ways out. Those years were mostly Nina’s. If the NAM state flips the last week of Jan the mean pattern may look more like the non Nina analogs I posted. 

The new weeklies are a better look in Feb. not great. But they won’t be right exactly. If they are wrong and the trough is a bit more suppressed with a bit more ridging over the top it becomes a good look. If it’s the other way...not so much. Flip the coin. 

Really anxious to see what Dr. No has to say about it at 0z. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Off hour run. Toss it. 

...it is ugly though. Undies all the improvement as goes right back to a neverending shutout look.  But like I’ve said the gefs is more prove to run to run shifts. Unless it has multiple runs or the eps heads that way I’m not sweating it. 

I have to admit that I am not optimistic.  I still can't get past the analogs in your research.  That and the atrocious MJO forecast have me calling shenanigans on these improvements.

6 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

I wonder what the next decade will look like.

Hello, magpiemaniac, I am curious where this map came from.

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 The strong convection there will feed the central pac ridge

Why does convection there feed the central pacific ridge?

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's AO value of +3.653 was the highest such figure since December 23, 2016. Unfortunately, it was timed for January, not some month outside of winter. Moreover, since January 1950, there are only 8 prior cases where the AO reached +3.500 or above in the January 1-10 timeframe. Five of those cases went on to have a predominantly positive AO in February. 1976 was one such case. Three, however, saw a predominantly negative AO. One such case was 1983. 

Perhaps, because of the "sacrifice" that has been made, something closer to 1983 will play out. Hopefully, once the MJO departs from the Maritime Continent, its travel plans will exclude any quick returns there.

Thanks Don.  I am curious, do you feel it is likely that the ++++AO is linked to the central pacific ridge, or is it just bad timing of two unfavorable features.  I mean I know that everything is connected on some level in weather I am just curious if they are just two manifestations of the same underlying phenomenon.

I took the day off.  Just looked at the 240 Hr EPS.  Pacific Doom Blob even stronger.

7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

How is the pattern looking horrible? I’m getting snow next Tuesday! It’s sad when we have to post snow maps in the sanitarium!r

Over the years you have been one of those leading the way for castigating the GFS for its fantasy snow storms and cold.  I think most of us have just learned our lesson.

8 hours ago, burrel2 said:

Pattern has looked and continues to look horrible. Things have to change sometime, right?

No.

Link to the weekly MJO write-up from the CPC.  Nothing surprising.  Need to root for the GEFS (I hate saying that).  EPS takes it absolutely apesh!t into the bad phases.  Jeeze where have I seen that before.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

So, I am curious how JB is reacting to the models these days.

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The check is in the mail 

The real question is does Panic Room have the infrastructure to support the mass horde of refugees which will come surging in once they wake up and read the post tomorrow.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Holy crap, I thought I was the doom and gloom one.... 

Well, the talk of the expanding Pacific warm pool skewing the MJO to the warm phases has me spooked.  But enough about that in this thread.

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not to derail the thread, but can you explain NAM or provide some reading/links for study? This is one that I have limited experience with. Thanks.

I think the NAM is synonymous with the AO.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Actually there was a 4 year stretch from 1949-1952 also.  

But...what if this is year one of a 3/4 year stretch....???? 

To be frank I think it is completely rational to be concerned that we may be on the brink of the start of a 100 year stretch, for reasons that I know you know, but I will not mention in this thread.  On the other hand, I think it is not unreasonable to hope that the recent decadal wasteland of +NAO/AO may be unrelated to that dark force that we will not name and perhaps soon we will see the return to better NAO/AO behavior. 

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Alright, that wins the thread.