cbmclean

2016 was not one?

Obviously the numeric indices aren't as important as the the patterns they attempt to quantify, but overall I suspect that NAO blocking is less impactful for you guys in the current base state. The return flow before a shortwave has just been a little too warm. I know, I know: it's been rare lately to get a well-positioned block that lasts. But transient boot-leg stuff used to have a greater probability of meaningful results. Will that change some if we can ever get out of the -----PDO dregs, I don't know. I sure hope so. By the way, I loved your work in Blazing Saddles. Would you consider signing up for a remake?

"If you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you."

Had graupel as well, didn't know what it was at first. Looked like bits of styrofoam coming from the sky.

Some flakes in Wilson.

Staying power. The changes that lead to the warmth are already in process early next week. That's close enough for confidence.

Talk about hallucinations.

NAMed

37.8 °F with 0.29". Second miserably cold rain day this week...I love them on weekdays!

I'm not writing off Pac Puke just yet. The solstice warm-up seems to be the most unstoppable atmospheric force on earth for 15+ years. It hasn't mattered whether we're in Nino, Nina or Nada. It hasn't mattered whether the first half of the month was good, bad or meh. It hasn't always meant a warm Christmas day per se as we've had a couple of powerful yet ultimately transient cold shots. And several times we've had normalish surface temps but with torched mid and upper levels. 2017 - 2018 is probably the biggest exception to this rule that I can remember off the top of my head. It was warm right before Christmas but then turned chilly on Christmas day and then brutally cold around New Years and the first 10 days or so of January. Even then it was a dry cold with no big storms.

Wait are you referring to the bird-like shape, or something dirty, because I al a little confused.

One thing to remember: this week was supposed to be a torch.

Ended up with 1.21" today. 39.52" for the year. Since the start of September, I don't think I've hit the almost 7 inches I got in a 36 hour period in June.

I'll let you guys know how it turns out.

I had that same thought, but didn't want to to start that war

I'm not trying to be mean, but this was too good an opportunity to pass up...

Yeah there is a nice trough in the east, but I see what to my layman's eyes looks like the dreaded AK vortex. Isn't that our signal to close the blinds for the following 3 weeks or so?

Frustrating for sure, but I try to remind myself that ~10 days ago this upcoming week was looking like a full-on torch. Since I personally love cold for its own sake (not just for association with snow), I'll be savoring the chilly temps and scanning the horizon nervously for signs of the inevitable late-December torch.

Ah, I have noted in the past Louisburg is one of those "typical outlying cold spots" often mentioned in the RAY AFD. What is it about the geography to that gives such good radiational cooling?

Got down to 22.1 last night and below freezing much of the night.

Where is your farm? It must be in a nice "holler".

We're back to: it's over.

It must be admitted that next week's torch seems to be becoming muted as it enters the medium range. Here's hoping it continues.

Didn't even check the thread before work as I usually catch up at lunch. I saw this pop up on my phone while microwaving my lunch and thought if Webb is complaining about a vanishing trough it can't be too bad for us. We're going through a it's over/we're back cycle every day now

Your point is well taken, but would you agree that the general trend across modeling the last week or so has been negative from our point of view (eastern CONUS south of Lat 40)? I think it's fair to take note and discuss on this thread. I'd say Don Sutherland is about as close to an unemotional, impartial analyst as any on this board, so I tend to pay attention to what he says. I agree that there are some other posts which may be more emotional and less analytical, and perhaps would be better off in the Panic Room when that gets opened, but as as a guest in this forum I do not presume to make any judgements. On the flip side I do note the somewhat more positive outlook in 15 day of the EPS AI that you posted. I noticed during tropical season that the AI models were, at times at least, schooling the physics-based models, so hopefully that is the case here.