jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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RGEM definitely still wet but more of it comes Sunday due to the dry air issue on Saturday. And the confluence is weaker so the heavy rain/low gets well north.
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Wouldn't shock me. On Sat, the storm will be pushing north into a lot of dry air/confluence due to a high building north of the area and northerly flow coming from Canada, so the initial push of heavy rain might dry up once at a certain latitude. Sat might be waves of heavy rain getting eaten up in the dry air. The low coming closest to the area on Sunday would mean more of a chance of heavy rain, but the confluence doesn't really go away and the low gets forced east off the NJ coast. GFS actually has a reinforcing wave of confluence coming south in Canada on Sunday. I can definitely see a sharp cutoff between 2"+ and little rain because of the dry air/confluence and the low being forced east. Models are starting to key in on maybe I-84 or a little north from there for the cutoff. Regardless of the heavy rain it'll be a nasty weekend with 30+ mph winds which the pressure gradient makes worse.
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Suppressing flow coming from the north as well via the Canadian ridge. Still the question of whether the tropical low cuts N or NNW from the Carolina coast or is shoved east because of the suppressing flow over New England.
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On that I agree, strong Ninos are usually stormy for us. Hopefully we don’t have everything suppressed or get overwhelmed with Pacific air. We also still have competing Nina influences so it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out.
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We’ll see. Odds favor it but I can see it being squashed underneath us by the massive central Canada ridge suppressing the flow and weaker SE ridge due to the cold water chopped up by the recent hurricanes. In any event I have outdoor plans this weekend so I hope the squashed/suppressed outcome happens. Which means it won’t.
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We’re probably still in for a soaking here but it’s all about the SE ridge, if it’s weaker this can slide/get booted east quicker. The models all lurching east at 12z say the Euro might be onto something.
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That’s actually a good bump east, it was plowing the low into PA before.
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Radar estimate about 0.8” here. Heavy shower just went through.
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Rain here’s about done. Will probably end with about 0.6”.
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It’ll be a test to see how much the SE ridge can flex and cause a coastal track or it can get away with sliding well east out to sea. El Niño favors a more muted SE ridge and this summer there have been lots of recurves, but the ridge always seems to be undermodeled as well.
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It is raining pretty hard now, maybe we make up some ground.
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I have about 0.33” and it had me well over an inch. This last batch might get me to 0.5” but the inch or more will be to my east. If any model did well it might be the RGEM. Scratch that, maybe HRRR?
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That’s the coastal low precip that should hit the E half of Suffolk. As for us we’re mostly done. Euro fails yet again.
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The split screw dry zone from 2 days ago is showing up on radar for the NJ coast and will probably push into W LI. We’ll see how much of the coastal system rain can affect LI. So the models that kept that idea will likely be right.
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Drove out by Moriches to Riverhead today, saw the large patches of dead pines. This is mostly from the beetle?
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Can always use the rain here so hopefully it produces. So many recent shaftings however it’s tough to be hopeful.
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Models all have the split screw to some extent but getting a little less obnoxious with it other than the RGEM. They also have more of the coastal low rain hitting LI now. We'll just have to see what happens.
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If you took out the ENSO regions and possibly the Indian Ocean you’d still think we’re in perma-Nina. There’s warm water trying to set up on the W Coast but it’s still overwhelmed by the W Pacific warm signal, so we still have the -PDO. It’ll be interesting for winter how that all shakes out.
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NAM would split screw most of us with an initial round for the NW areas then the coastal low well out to sea. Other models have this split screw as well.
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Yup, of course 18z models look to be trending well out to sea with any significant rain. Guess we’ll see what happens.
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Could finally be one where east of the city is favored for the heavy rain.
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The W sides of these are almost always meh wind wise. More rain but the wind switches to the east side where Halifax looks to have 70-80mph type gusts, but very little rain. In my experience Henri had a ton of rain in NYC on the west side but the wind resembled a regular windy day. And looks like the rain hasn’t even been that impressive, some places have 3” in Maine?
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You can see the fewer clipper/small-medium snow event effect I mentioned in the State College data. Pretty clear decline below BOS in the last 15 years. So many big coastal and boom/bust patterns are awful for central PA. SWFEs also blast warm mid level air there so they become ice events. They used to at least get a few of these mid range snow events per year but now with practically no clippers and so many coastal storms, inland south of where SWFEs can still be snow (like Albany) suffers. Maybe if this stronger SE ridge is a semi permanent feature, State College can recover in the future with more inland runners. They really need a return to more Miller A favored patterns too, and this strong Nino might be good for them.
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Radar reminds me of our Juno 2015 and how far the heavy rain will back into Cape Cod.
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It’s because of outflow and southerly flow overall ahead of the hurricane at the upper levels.
