jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Sigh of relief.
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It hasn’t really budged. We’re at the point where you have to weigh it somewhat. And GFS did go NW at 6z. We’ll see soon enough what the overall trend is. If we see models lurch NW at 12z we’ll know where this is going.
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I said it before-would fit the winter theme to a T if in the 48 hours it’s warm enough we get a coastal hugger mostly rain then back to suppressed crap.
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Agree, if we see a big shift west from other models the fat lady’ll start tuning up.
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If that’s the case it’s a washout from the city east and maybe even to the Tappan Zee. Disaster. Hopefully it’s wrong but we’re at the stage where we want it to start moving east. Either the Euro or Canadian will fall flat on its face, no compromise here.
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I think we’ll be fine as long as the low stays SE of the island. As always if we see it track over NJ we’ll have a problem. The cold air press/fast flow will hopefully nudge it east.
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I wouldn’t worry about anything the HRRR says. I’m not losing hope east of the city but we need these west trends to stop pronto.
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I’d feel pretty good about 6” west of the Tappan Zee and along I-287/I-87.
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If the low goes SE of Montauk I would think we’d be ok-the arctic air should wrap in close to the low. It’s those solutions where it plops over LBI that we’d be in trouble.
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What did the city get in the storm last Feb, I think 2/13? I had 7” in that one.
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I’m hopeful we get something but it’s a thread the needle situation where we need the S/W to track favorably and not be too amped. Areas just inland are favored for the best outcome but hopefully the less amped Euro has a clue here. We’re getting closer to the point though that RGEM doesn’t normally move much.
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Pretty crazy this close in. I’m sure today the models will start to converge on something. Hopefully the western models come east more. If you take a consensus of everything I should be good.
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Seems like all the models hit that area with at least a light to moderate event and even though the RGEM backed off slightly it wasn’t much. I’d rather be there for this than east of the city. Maybe the Euro AI can save us all.
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16 this AM. Again colder than expected.
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Tough call where I am. RGEM looks a little better but verbatim still a washout, GFS at 6z definitely got more amped to the point that just SE of me doesn’t get much. Euro still better but generally weaker. The best zone looks to be 30-50 miles west and north of the city, here I’m definitely sweating but hopefully can get a few inches. Hopefully we see a consensus just a little less amped like the last few GFS runs.
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Yup pretty much totally perfect on that run.
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It's been steady if not trending even further west, and its outcome makes sense if the S/W is sharp and trough orientation isn't favorable for the coast. I wouldn't discount it but I'd note it as an outlier and hope other models don't trend towards it.
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Looks like a nice outcome actually.
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NAM is absolutely horrendous. It can make a 180 turnaround within 24 hrs of an event. It needs to be retired.
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I don't think it will be right since it's a big outlier, we'll have to see what the better models say later but it definitely would fit this winter's fail theme to a T.
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Would be fitting for this winter though. Suppressed garbage, dry windy cold, then on 2 days where it spikes above freezing a coastal hugger all rain rushes through, then back to even worse dry windy cold.
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Yup, that run's a disaster. It's been consistent so can't discount it.
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Awesome. Hope we can get good ratios to max those amounts. You want temps -12 to -18C in the snow growth zone for best ratios.
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Light snow-dusting on cars.
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If we have the better 500mb look aloft I’m not so worried about QPF since we should have better lift and banding. Although this will be out in a hurry so amounts will be limited that way. This won’t be a major snow event but a 3-6” type event would be great for all. Hopefully we can edge it up for some to get 7-8”. Last thing we want is more useless dry windy cold with bare ground.
