jm1220

I’d have to look up the specific examples but the April storms we got like 2003 and 2018 were southern sliders that went underneath our area, not big closed upper lows where we’re waiting for the primary to die off. That primary kills whatever marginal airmass we have anyway to start with, and also a huge dry slot. We need the whole upper low etc setup to depart well south of us, I’d say no further north than Ocean City MD/Cape May maybe. The CCB will set up north and eventually west of the upper low as it matures, that’s why maybe we’d get table scraps snow/white rain around the matured upper low. That’s what happened to us in the 4/1/97 storm-most of us got screwed because the upper low was too far north and it buried I-90.

Any time of year would be a problem with a primary driving up to Buffalo. We would need the closed ULL a lot further south to force the redevelopment and CCB in a prime position for us. As JetsPens said, the ridging out ahead of it will try to force the upper low further north. From Boston on N I would keep a closer eye on it. The best area to be would be the high elevations like Adirondacks to Green/White Mountains and Berkshires. Even if lower elevations like Boston do get heavy snow they’d probably need to fight off marginal surface temps for a while. And again forget about any 10-1 map in this kind of marginal airmass setup unless you’re in the mountains. Down here the max potential I think is some heavier snow/table scraps precip that rots around the CCB that’s nailing New England.

I don’t doubt there’ll be a major storm given the blocky pattern, it’ll just be a miracle to get anything more than some snow showers in the rotting CCB for our sub forum. We’d need the upper low to close off and track over the DC area or maybe even further south. The firehose of moisture and snow will be focused north of that closed upper low.

Whenever all the snow melts that they’re getting in NNE it’ll be a big flood threat in all the downstream rivers combined with all the rain we’ve had. Ground of course is totally saturated.

The 10-1 maps should be thrown out anywhere other than high elevations in a storm like this, we have the usual problems with cold air, primary hanging on too long, the trough might not be that deep etc. I mentioned yesterday that I-90 on north should keep an eye on it but south of there too much is probably working against it. The rain deluge of course will find a way to happen.

Luckily we can also get tons of snow in that 6-8 week period. We just need the Pacific to cooperate in those times and not blast maritime puke all over the continent.

If (when) the Nina happens next winter, we have a better likelihood of December working out. Hope it happens because the rest of a Nina winter is most likely shot if it doesn’t. And hope we have a high ACE this summer.

The warmth will be there SW of us and when the blocking leaves it’s full steam bath ahead.

It’s their climatology not luck. They average more than double or triple the snow we do and it can easily snow into April. We’ve been spoiled but we’re going back to the era where it sucks to be a snow lover here. Is what it is.

You can really only go by climo at this point and that says the further SW you go the more likely there is to be sun. But it’s really anyone’s guess. I’ll be in FL for the eclipse so for me it’ll only be 50-60% partial but it would suck obviously to spend $1000+ on hotels/airfare etc and stuck in traffic for a cloudy day. Such a crapshoot. So I would stay in the Northeast just for that reason and go by car. I looked up flights to Austin for the hell of it and round trips are over $800 and hotels I’m sure are sold out.

That’s pretty close to the SE ridge just hooking up with the NAO block which would mean a mega cutter.

Interesting to see next week whether this bowling ball storm happens for New England and how far south the bowling ball can get. There’ll likely be a ton of snow north of that closed upper low. For us I’m sure it just means tons more rain but maybe I-90 and north should keep an eye on it. This blocky NAO pattern which of course shows up right on time to nasty up the spring makes that more likely.

West of I-95 the rain looks mostly done. Unfortunately probably plenty more east of there, looks like the batch currently over DE will reach Queens on East anyway.

The NAM snow is fun to look at but won’t happen at least near the city. Maybe far northern areas in the hills. The RGEM 12z which hasn’t been sniffing glue went west a little also but no snow.

Awesome, keep it going.

It’s 320 hours out. Who knows how conditions end up that far out.

RGEM looked pretty far east with the rain late week. Good. Keep it away

If there’s a big closed off low east of us the only result will be easterly winds and low clouds. We’d want some kind of westerly flow to warm us up and keep it dry.

Shows up right on schedule to trash the start of spring.

One or two more of these and we’ll spontaneously transform to a rainforest. The water table’s so high that I’m sure many basements will start flooding with any more rain much less 2-3”+.

For the Valentines Day 2007 storm I lived in Central PA. That's exactly what it was-probably 8" of snow in 3" of sleet. 4" of snow then the sleet and 4" at the end that added up to 10-12" of absolute cement. Temps were in the teens to around 20 the whole storm. That seriously was the heaviest, densest concrete I remember falling out of the sky. It froze solid and lasted for weeks. In other parts of the state it was so disruptive that major roads/interstates shut down because it's so hard to move. I think in that storm much of this subforum had a big ice event. Much of upstate NY/NNE had 24"+ which I would've much rather experienced, but all the dense sleet made what I had probably just as disruptive. The St Patricks Day 2007 storm I was home on Long Island and remember the insane amount of sleet from that one. So that month long period I saw more sleet than any other time in my life.

Albany lucked out with 5-6" at the end but ouch that 20 miles or so north never mixed and got 18".

@uofmiami Did you send your rain total to Upton? Most recent amount they have for Syosset is 3.7”.

3.8” for me, over 4” very close by. Syosset I think ended with 4.2” and all NYC sites over 3”. Any more of these and the island will sink under.

Larkfield Rd in Commack closed from flooding. At least this time it didn’t shut down Jericho Turnpike. Huntington Village flooded pretty good too, that’s where there were amounts over 4”. Otherwise getting pretty gusty now.