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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Yup, that will be insane. If this warm intrusion/dryslot idea stays hopefully that rocks us first.
  2. jm1220
    Crazy 850mb easterly jet into our region by 21z Monday. Seems like it strengthened from last run. This would be a hellacious 6-8 hour or so period of snow I-80 in NJ to LI.
  3. jm1220
    That could maybe do it for both our regions, that 850mb jet is crazy. It'll be a faster thump where I am on that jet while the cold air lasts but the overall evolution and CCB development and good ratios benefit you guys. Maybe it can stay that way. We all get our 12"+ but you get it over a day while I get it in 8 hours and go to a dryslot.
  4. jm1220
    Tomorrow will really tell the tale IMO. No one out of the game.
  5. jm1220
    Hate to say it but I doubt it turns out like this. There are certain situations where much of PA and the NYC area get crushed like in 2003 and 2016 (Nino years), or the fluke 03-04 winter. This is a moderate Nina and the trending probably isn't done. That's a benefit for you guys, hopefully for me it isn't enjoy for a couple hours before rain or the dryslot. Even if so you guys deserve it though, hopefully this can be the diamond in the rough somehow.
  6. jm1220
    I was never really worried about suppression in this pattern. Some places like Liberty may be on the edge still but in a mod-strong Nina with something like this coming in, this was taking every inch north it could.
  7. jm1220
    Tonight has to be the last of the NW jumps for NYC and the coast. The front end thump can work out fine but now we're relying on that to a dryslot when it gets marginally warm. It's never a great feeling. 12/17 was supposed to work out that way until it went to shredded garbage. The mid level lows are taking better tracks this time so far so hope that holds. But NW posters, totally in the game.
  8. jm1220
    Somehow keep it this way please.
  9. jm1220
    Euro on board for the front end crazy thump for NYC to get its 12" snow and then NW rots in the CCB for its snow. Clear trend tonight.
  10. jm1220
    Safe to say the UK isn't happening.
  11. jm1220
    Yes!! The best wouldn't get back to I-99 on this run but high ratios would help it end up better than precip/snow maps would say off the bat.
  12. jm1220
    I'll always be part of your suffering. My State College years 2004-09 were brutal. I rooted for you guys on 12/17 when I knew it would be a Central PA event, best in a decade!! (ended up with the best a little north of expected but IPT still had 24")
  13. jm1220
    Hopefully this one can be a biggie for all of us!! I'm pretty optimistic and it seems the same mechanics to get this to work can make it happen for you guys as well as around NYC. Fingers crossed. Confluence in time to get the coastal system to cooperate and a decent front end for PA.
  14. jm1220
    Soon. Snow starts just over 48 hours out.
  15. jm1220
    Still has 8" or so here which I gladly take. There's been about 1" here since 12/17, 9" on the season in my backyard. Not sure what it's seeing that others aren't. Euro will tell the tale as usual I guess.
  16. jm1220
    Overnight Sun into Mon. The real heavy snow could be Mon afternoon-evening. Long duration to get it really started.
  17. jm1220
    UK is fine for the city and S/E but an outlier. Wouldn't be worried about it.
  18. jm1220
    The Dec front end batch was good for a few hours but then went shredded which allowed the warm air to take over when the precip finally did restart, we wasted up to 0.5" as rain. Hopefully this can be a colder version of that storm, if not for that it would have been easily 12"+ in my backyard.
  19. jm1220
    If there's a story so far tonight I'd say it's for a crazy fronto band to come through and dump very heavy rates especially from eastern NJ on east, when earlier it seemed like it would be more modest but longer lasting on the easterly mid level jet. NW would pile up a bit less snow but have a CCB feature with good ratios sit overhead while there's a relative dryslot over the immediate metro area.
  20. jm1220
    There's a piece of energy that dives down the trough and enhances the coastal low so much that it lurches it north enough to have SE Mass be mostly rain on that run I'd say. GGEM has the low near Marthas Vineyard. The prolonged easterly mid level flow doesn't help and brings warm air in to start. The GFS v16 keeps that area plenty cold and buries them just like us. So like I said, tomorrow will be interesting.
  21. jm1220
    Amish Annihilation.
  22. jm1220
    Final for that run (and it wasn't, there was minor additional even after this panel).
  23. jm1220
    Story's not close to being written on this yet. I wouldn't count anyone in this subforum at least as really being out. Might be shaping up as down here a crazy 10-12 hour burst of our snow and well NW a lighter 18 hour snow with the CCB feature.
  24. jm1220
    The v16 did a lot better on the 12/17 event overall than the retiring GFS, but the retiring GFS had us down here quite a bit colder and busted. Reversed this time with these-old GFS has the crappy thermals and the v16 annihilates us and most of you guys too. .
  25. jm1220
    Snowgoose FTW? (sorry I had to lol)
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