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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    It was an improvement over 12z, all that really matters to me. I don’t see 35” of snow happening in Baltimore but who knows.
  2. jm1220
    Right, it's one possible outcome. The ugly GGEM/UK for many are another.
  3. jm1220
    This would be 2-4"/hr under this band.
  4. jm1220
    Sign me up ASAP
  5. jm1220
    Absolutely annihilated by that death WAA band. Holy smokes.
  6. jm1220
    NAM is fine for all of us, not noticing much change really other than like was said-a little colder.
  7. jm1220
    The Euro did dig more and has the stalled/tucked kind of solution where warm air can wrap around from the east. So we don't want that continuing especially east of NYC.
  8. jm1220
    This isn't a miller A. It's a miller B transferring storm.
  9. jm1220
    If you follow what the pattern supports people shouldn't be flipping out. I was always more worried about yet another situation here where we worry about mixing/dryslot vs suppressed. Not saying the mixing will really happen but too suppressed is off the table at this point. This'll be a big test for the new GFS, it's been the most bullish by far for NYC. But even these amped models seem to end up delivering a good amount for places away from the twin forks so I'll take it.
  10. jm1220
    The new UKMET looks a lot like the GGEM to me, so it's not on its own.
  11. jm1220
    Yeah it seemed to me like it stalled out and started occluding so soon and far south that it wrapped warm/dry air around from the east which screws it for eastern areas.
  12. jm1220
    GFS v16 still looks amazing for places south of I-84. Might have ticked south a little from 6z?
  13. jm1220
    The competing mesolows chasing convection are frequently wrong and are a function of the meso models overdoing the convection. I guess technically they can work out but I've yet to see it actually happen.
  14. jm1220
    Odd and to me seems like an outlier. It ends up fine especially near the city but it might be in clueless mode again. This model can't get retired soon enough.
  15. jm1220
    Wow....
  16. jm1220
    NAM supports a crazy snow band that would drop much of our snow here over a 6-8 hour period or so on Mon afternoon. This is for 18z Mon Inland gets there in the end but it's lighter snow over a longer duration.
  17. jm1220
    The GFS v16 went even more berserk at 6z for everyone except the far northern areas and even they would have a nice event in the end. Has over 2" liquid as snow for NYC and Long Island, 1" up to about I-84.
  18. jm1220
    Hopefully not tucked like this at least. The elongated nature of this can help it really dump somewhere but it also brings in warm air just as much on the easterly flow. Just have to hope those mid level low tracks stay SE of us.
  19. jm1220
    It may not be so bad up there. It’ll be a slower event than here but it may pile up in the end to not too dissimilar amounts.
  20. jm1220
    Maybe this storm can really do it-the 12” totals at Central Park and State College. Looks like this is an I-80 bullseye at this point. And in a moderate Nina no less.
  21. jm1220
    The stretch of 2000-01 to 2017-18 will likely be an all time great stretch of any of our lives despite the occasional 2001-02, 2011-12 bummers. When has the last average been 30" at Central Park for a decade? Uncle W?
  22. jm1220
    Before Jan 1996 I have a spotty memory (was born in 1987). I remember the late 12/95 storm mixing but being a good event, Mar 1993 having icebergs as there was flooding everywhere in Long Beach, 1993-94 being cold/snowy but not many specifics. The 1/96 blizzard was my first real snap into place memory of a storm. And then I was hooked lol. Don't remember that mixing either.
  23. jm1220
    Best case right there.
  24. jm1220
    Or check the Central PA thread. Essentially best case scenario. Probs of 3", 6" are also there.
  25. jm1220
    I totally agree, Nemo from Feb 2013 could have been 24" in Long Beach but we wasted 3 hours to sleet when northern Nassau/Suffolk was pounding so it definitely happens, but there's no "the big ones mix" rule anywhere. 1/3/18 was all snow down to Ocean City MD. It's about the low tracks and cold air availability.
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