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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    He's a weenie who predicted widespread 15-20" totals 2 days ago. That ain't happening.
  2. jm1220
    And the weird thing is the 3k NAM seems well south of other models with how far north the snow gets. At NYC it has 0.3" liquid by 0z and 1" at Atlantic City. I think it warms up at the mid levels just based on how little heavy precip gets this far north. And it went south from 18z. Regular NAM also went south with how far the good precip makes it-seems like maybe to the LIE and I-78 in NJ? Seems like it jumped on this idea of snow regenerating on Friday adding maybe 1-3" more.
  3. jm1220
    Quick temp drop off here, down to 23. A few inches or so of absolute cement on the ground here in most places from before and mountains of dirt ice in the parking lots. Should be a fairly straightforward 5-8” total for most of us. 3-5” for the twin forks, lower NJ shore and north of I-84.
  4. jm1220
    That said the Euro is encouraging as is the Nam. Hopefully we can get the thump early on that gets many of us over 6”. Odds are best near the coast.
  5. jm1220
    And Boston NWS went with advisories too, no complaints about them?
  6. jm1220
    And they ultimately came up with the same snow range. The rule is that 6” over more than 12 hours is an advisory event, which is what the consensus essentially is. Glad I really couldn’t care less about what TV Mets have to say. And yes it’s tough. A couple degrees warmer aloft or this being a sheared out mess means we struggle to get to a few inches, or a bit colder and more intense front end means we can get to 9”.
  7. jm1220
    Yep and that’s why I felt bad for the DC crowd that inevitably got shafted for the 2/1 storm. They bit on those models like the RGEM that gave Baltimore 36”. Some down there did alright but it’s very rare that a Miller B produces SW of Philly.
  8. jm1220
    We probably need a moderate Nino and a gulf Miller A crawler like Jan 2016 again. You have the added tropical juice from the Nino and cold air/blocking to the north. We lucked out here this winter-it’s been very good N of Philly, I think a little above average in Philly and lousy near DC. And I haven’t seen a significant all snow event event, every bigger event mixed at some point but after a ton fell already.
  9. jm1220
    I wouldn’t worry unless you’re up by Albany maybe (being shut out, maybe not 10”). These snow events always seem to sneak their way north of what’s expected and you have the better ratios generally. I don’t see anything really shutting you out. There’s a good 700mb fetch of moisture that should push this north a good ways.
  10. jm1220
    GFS v16 and CMC seem to be going toward the sheared mess idea that they had last night. I'm not buying either that the WAA snow push/thump would whiff south of us. I can't think of the last time that's happened. The "safe" guess for NYC right now would probably be 5-7" from this. But crazy differences between models this close in.
  11. jm1220
    8” in 24 hours or 6” in 12 hours.
  12. jm1220
    Snow always seems to start earlier than expected in these SWFE type storms.
  13. jm1220
    Comical differences on the models this close in. NAM essentially is all front end snow to sleet and most of the GFS snow is from a coastal storm.
  14. jm1220
    12z RGEM looks pretty good actually, it's a little cooler in the mid levels than the Nam.
  15. jm1220
    Very typical scenario for our area for this-hopefully the snow comes in like a wall, accumulates fast and can hold the sleet off until it's about over.
  16. jm1220
    I don't think they all count sleet as snow. I don't use Tropical Tidbits because I know they do. It's a much better idea to use soundings instead of snow maps and look at the 700/850mb maps. Lots of SW flow at those levels which will produce the heavy snow but also warm those layers up and everything in between. It's usually a good idea to use the warmer mid level temp models in these type of SWFE events since those layers often warm up faster than modeled.
  17. jm1220
    You can't discount the NAM getting warmer aloft. It's usually superior to other models sniffing out these warm layers that can mean changing over. Last two runs have gotten a little warmer in mid levels, no doubting that. It's north of other models generally but there's often a last minute north trend anyway. RGEM at 6z was also a good bit north it seemed.
  18. jm1220
    Heavy snow burst before mixing comes in probably.
  19. jm1220
    This morning in Austin- significant ice storm. Looks like up to 0.5” ice.
  20. jm1220
    Well, GGEM definitely on the snowier Friday and coastal low idea. Takes forever but coastal areas get a good swipe from it. Less inland/NW.
  21. jm1220
    Yep, it might just be adjusting toward this being a Friday focused event. We just have to wait and see.
  22. jm1220
    Hopefully you're right. I'm not liking the trends on some models toward making this a 24 hour long sheared out mess. I don't think something like that would end up as more than a solid advisory event. I guess that would keep it cooler for the area but we need the front end thump or the consolidated Fri low idea to happen. GFS and CMC are in sheared out mess land now.
  23. jm1220
    You live in Queens, that's a bad thing? Looking great down here for now but as others said there's still plenty of time for it to keep going south or otherwise get messed up.
  24. jm1220
    This is through hr57. Looks like maybe at the very end and when precip is light there can be some sleet near the coast on this run but as you can see it doesn't make a difference in accums. Far northern people may be sweating a little but these always have banding north of where the snow is supposed to stop.
  25. jm1220
    Yes and no. Not having power and having an entire million person city essentially shut down for days ain't ideal either. 6.4" of snow is a nice event for me (I saw some areas of Austin had 7 or 8") but I've already had more than that in one event 3x this winter and have a good shot at #4 on Thu. There's no comprehension down there (south of Dallas) how to handle any kind of winter event much less anything like this. The utilities are in some real trouble over how things have been handled. To me I wonder how they handle the A/C constantly being on for months under 100+ degree heat but can't handle this. I know some wires must have been damaged from ice but a lot of what just fell in TX was snow.
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