jm1220

And just when I was getting thrilled with the lack of mosquitoes this spring.

Euro got wetter too, has a nice 4"+ chunk over N NJ and 3"+ everywhere else. UKMET has 6"+ over E LI. This Part 2 is getting bigger on each model run.

Mon might be okay-rain pivots out on Sunday night but still looks mostly cloudy and temps maybe reaching the low 60s. Between the rain tonight and Sunday, Sat looks dreary, raw with showers in between the main shows. I remember lousy Memorial Day weekends but not this nasty.

12z NAM-4"+ rain east of I-95, 4-6" of rain for much of CT and LI. 1-2" from Part 1 and the rest from heavy training/tropical feed on Sunday.

More models are bumping up the Part 2 amplifying trough/tropical feed on Sun which is what can really pump the rain totals sky high through training and the moist tropical connection. Tonight's overrunning Part 1 looks like a widespread 1-2". As usual the overrunning is pushing north at the last minute to where northern parts of forum and SNE get the heaviest rain from that part. Whether we really get to 4-6" depends on where and how strong Part 2 gets.

0z NAM-geez. Washout. If that's right everyone's barbeques and beach chairs'll be floating down the streets.

Looking like this weekend rain is a two part event, initial overrunning heavy rain for the most part then an amplifying trough which the Nam spins up into another coastal system and batch of heavy rain. Turning out to be a washout or otherwise nasty chilly weekend.

Very brief shower and thunder here. Looks like the line reformed south of me and hugging the southern half of the island.

It was gross in Long Beach today, no seabreeze to speak of here. Plenty of humidity though.

If we have westerly winds over the weekend we can have temps over perform again east of the city. Based on that Wed map looks like a south wind which means cooler temps but higher humidity. Point and click for me on Sun is 90 for the high, could be 95 if we have the westerly flow.

Up to 85 here.

Very weak/practically nonexistent ocean influence today. The barrier beaches are still in the mid 70s to 80s. The last few summers have been humid enough that the sea breeze only makes the heat worse by driving the humidity up and only dropping temps a few degrees. Hopefully it’s a drier heat this year.

Not terribly unusual. N winds here can be downslope which causes heating on its own. For the coast the warmest days are WNW wind days in the summer.

You can probably split the difference in most places. Winds look to be onshore so 60s on the coast and 70s inland. Too much troughing offshore to have the heat here for too long. Next week that might change and we finally have a sustained westerly flow.

Got my 2nd Moderna shot yesterday. My arm is pretty sore (like the 1st shot), felt some fatigue and slept through most of this gorgeous afternoon. Generally a lousy feeling like when I have a cold. But it’s good to have the pandemic over with for me and able to go back to life beforehand.

Similar arm soreness as the first dose, plus some fatigue and generally “under the weather” feeling like when I have a cold. I slept for about 5 hours this afternoon so I’m a little less tired now. I’m not a fan of vaccines either but it’s worth it to put this pandemic behind me and do what I can to help society.

As long as we have the deep trough NE of us over the Maritimes, I'd be suspicious of any real heat making it to NYC, or if it does it would be short lived since the backdoor will always be close by. That trough's been absurdly constant over that area this spring.

Second Moderna shot for me today. The first had some soreness at the injection site, that was it. Guess we’ll see what happens with this one. Cuomo and the other Tri-state area govs are “reviewing” policies after the CDC announcement yesterday. But in general it’s great to see the trajectory we’re on and normalcy coming back quickly.

77 here-gorgeous finally.

Cold morning in the more rural areas. 34 at Westhampton this AM.

Oh what a shocker there. Can’t ever bet against the Maritimes trough the past few springs.

Don posted correlations from our current pattern to previous hot summers. This might be one that turns on a dime and soon we have consistent 90s. Hopefully not the case. But yeah-usually at this time of year I’m not consistently wearing a sweater and hoodie still.

Trust me, we'll be happy in 2 months while they're frying. Summer in the south absolutely sucks.

Major problems for the Southwest if those precip trends continue, and they’re in another severe drought this year. I read that an official water shortage may be coming soon for parts of NV and AZ because of low water levels on the Colorado River and lakes.

The Austin/San Antonio areas are absolutely exploding. I lived there 5 years ago and without improved infrastructure and accommodations for the accelerated growth, they're in for some hurt. The congestion in Austin is already bad enough, and little mass transit for nearly a million people other than two light rail lines and bus. For vehicles it's MoPac Expressway and I-35 for main thoroughfares, and both are constantly backed up. Weatherwise, April/early May are the best severe weather times there, and it can be good. I had several tornado warnings and many severe warnings. EF1 went maybe 2 miles from me once, other times 75 mph straight line winds and golf ball hail. The best tornado area is Waco on north in TX. May and October can be very wet. May 2015 was crazy in Austin for how much rain there was, 20" that month I believe. October 2015 had the heaviest rain I've ever seen (even the pre-Irene 2011 rain event here) from the Hurricane Patricia remnants off the Pacific. Winter is changeable but generally add 10-15 degrees from this area for what you get there. Despite the insane snow/ice this winter, when I was there we had one morning with some sleet and ice that was a minor glaze, that was it. Summer is atrociously hot and humid, most days in late July/Aug are near or over 100 before heat index. You're close enough to the Gulf for the humidity and inland enough for the higher actual highs. Also it's generally dry in the summer, the afternoon T-storms often fire closer to the gulf. The nice months are the winter months when you can get a warm airmass, and Oct-Nov/March. Landwise, plenty for sure in TX but it quickly goes from suburban/exurban not far from Austin downtown (like 10 miles) to nothing (and I mean nothing not even a town) west of there on Rt 71 or 290. Awesome people watching, very friendly/laid back vibe, great events such as SBSW/Austin City Limits and plenty of good jobs but not so much in my industry now. Living costs however are skyrocketing (part of the problem with exploding population).