jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Those snow maps are likely showing a lot of sleet as snow until you're well north in New England or west in PA/NY. The mid level low tracks are horrible- winds at mid levels are out of the E/SE and strengthening. And the GFS usually doesn't see the mid level warming soon enough. NAM is better with that which we'll see a few runs from now (if the overall setup doesn't improve). I've gotten burned numerous times with seeing big snow totals on maps with bad mid level low tracks. It'll change over way sooner than it thinks now.
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NAM actually is very amped. Maybe not as super amped as it can be but it's amped enough to change everyone east of the Allegheny spine in PA to sleet and dry slot, as the deform axis/heavy snow is over OH.
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St Patrick’s Day 2007? I remember that well. VD 2007 was sleet and freezing rain on the coast. This won’t be a sleetfest on the coast like those. There’s a strong easterly fetch off the ocean and retreating high. You want the high stuck in place and northerly winds for CAD. Those aren’t what we want to keep cold air where we are. Models have us getting into the 40s during the storm.
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I’d call it a win here to see an hour of snow before rain. Although if it gets washed away anyway I don’t really care. The main story here will be coastal flooding as Rjay mentioned. Some of the back bays and usual spots could get dicey. Inland that can hold onto the cold air will see a couple hours of snow then a ton of sleet. Probably a few inches of mess by the end. You’ll really want to be far west in upstate NY or PA to get much snow.
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If the winds are coming from off the ocean there won’t be CAD at least where you and I are. Well inland sure. But I think the snow maps showing 6+ for N NJ and S NY are probably overdone. A lot would be sleet.
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If those mid level lows are still west of me and the high is still getting chased out, I couldn’t care less about minor changes. Might just make the rain a degree or two colder.
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I’m actually happy for the central PA crowd that should get a significant to major event here. They very rarely have gotten big snow events over the past 15-20 years other than a couple of exceptions like 3/14/17 and last Dec’s storm. And the ski resorts are begging for this.
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Yep. When you look at the KU book for what happened before big inland snowstorms that about sums it up. The flow turns easterly as the storm arrives which kills any chance at significant snow near the coast. Maybe at best something brief that gets washed away.
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Doesn’t really matter all that much for big snow accum. The surface low east of you can keep surface winds northerly but the mid levels would still be torched due to the mid level low bad tracks. And even out ahead of the surface low there looks to be prolonged easterly flow which would torch people near the coast anyway. You want to be in central PA, central/northern NY for this event. Anywhere west of those mid level lows really.
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Exactly. If we keep this cold pattern and +PNA there will be more chances in the future. As others pointed out and I said yesterday, if the mid level lows go west of you there won’t be much snow for you. Maybe sleet inland but it would be quick snow to rain on the coast if that. You want those tracking east of you if you’re hoping for snow. Any run that shows them west of you is bad news.
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We need more than small ticks. State College/I-99/Rt 220/I-81 north of Harrisburg should be good spots for this event. And it’s desperately needed for them. Ski resorts have gotten essentially zippo this winter.
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The saving grace might be a later phase or the southern stream being a little faster/getting ahead of the northern stream. That would enable it to dig a little further and get further east before making the left turn. But no there’s not a mechanism here like a block to stop it from making the sharp left turn. Doesn’t matter how cold it is out ahead of the storm. These inland tracks do make sense from how the setup is shown with the retreating high.
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The high is retreating east and we have a strong S/W diving in that wants to amp. There’s very little blocking to speak of which might keep something like that offshore, so it hugs the coast or tracks inland. Makes sense to me. It’s not what we want but it makes sense. If you look in K/U near misses, it seems like a common theme for big interior/Apps snowstorms. Given how far inland the 0z EPS look, I don’t see them being that wrong here. It might be a little too amped but we need a substantial shift east at this point for any hope near the city.
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Pretty straightforward for us actually. This strongly favors a rain event for people near the coast and a mix or mix to rain inland. We need for the Op runs to be a huge error at this point or a major trend east starting today. It’s unfortunate but it’s what it is.
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I haven’t looked where the mid level lows are tracking and it’s too early for specifics, but if the clown maps show big amounts and those lows track west of you, you know it’s almost certainly way overdone and sleet will cut the totals down.
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For sleet you want to track the 850/700 lows. If those go NW of you you know there will be a big mid level warm surge and then dryslot. So well inland it may not get above freezing at the surface but the warm mid levels will still turn it to sleet for a good chunk of the storm.
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There could be 50 feet of snowpack. If the upper air pattern supports the low going west of you that’s what will happen.
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Yep that doesn’t help either. The high sliding east is a setup for an inland snowstorm. It would cause the winds to be easterly near the coast when the precip starts and would rapidly warm us up.
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There would probably be front end snow before a change to rain. I don’t buy that this cold an airmass is just shunted out. Models usually don’t see that this far ahead. But if we start an easterly 20-30mph wind any snow would be brief near the coast. We saw how fast the temps warmed this AM when winds turned onshore.
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If we keep the cold/+PNA pattern there will be other chances after this one. I wouldn’t get too bummed out.
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I could see there being front end snow at the onset for a few hours especially inland but tracks well inland like shown will switch everyone over to rain. Near the coast whatever would fall probably gets washed away.
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FOK went from 8 to 28 in one hour. Low was 2 there.
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Wind shifting to the south off the 40s ocean. Welcome to Long Island!! Upcoming arctic air masses will be longer lived I think (what a bummer that it might get interrupted by rain in the 40s for 12 hours on Sunday before crashing again).
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There isn’t much of a blocking pattern. There’s a pseudo -NAO upcoming but not enough to really shunt east a vigorous storm like this one. This looks like it wants to amp up fast and cut north. I don’t see much to really stop it. Also the ridge axis is a little too far west than what I’d want for an offshore tracking storm. Nothing to stop a frigid pattern from suddenly featuring a warm cutter or hugger that changes us over to rain when we lack the blocking. That said this is 5 days away and will change but I don’t see anything to stop it from being a lousy outcome either.
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Doesn't matter. We can definitely go from frigid to rain to frigid again. There's little confluence/blocking to keep the cold in place so it lifts out as the storm arrives.
