jm1220

This will be much different. The upper low structure for the 2002 storm was much better for us. The 500mb low closed off in time for heavy snow to linger west of the low as the cold air crashed in. This is much more progressive and the precip won’t be pivoting back west as it leaves. It’s a classic precip vs cold air race this time, and the flow will de drying us out in general from the NW when the cold air gets here.

Hi-res models are pretty snowy for NYC and even western LI, shows 2-3" in general. I'm pessimistic about these "wait for the cold air to come in" storms for snow in NYC and we'll have to deal with dry NW winds but I guess we'll see what happens. Anything of note I'd expect to happen NW of the city.

Yep, once again the storm is generally falling apart for Central PA in terms of anything really significant. Probably a moderate event for most. For me it is definitely colder and could be a surprise couple of inches, but in general the storm seems lamer/strung out instead so it doesn’t really nail anyone. Oh well.

I haven’t seen the upper low maps but I’d assume those aren’t closing off until the storm is done for us. That’s what would really drive the precip west. If those stay strung out/not closed off, it may be more like a glorified frontal passage.

I’d rather have the windy rainstorm and inland finally gets their overdue snowstorm than the strung out crap storm being described. Way too many of those this winter.

Maybe we can get one of those convective lows to develop and tug it east like our 1/30 storm and early Jan storm. Only seems to happen to screw us over though. In all seriousness this is still likely an inland only snow event but the progressive pattern has pulled these east/suppressed before. If I was in Central NY/PA I’d start to sweat.

30 here with thick fog.

That was a nice NAM run for just about everyone NW of I-81. Hopefully maybe a tick or two more SE so Harrisburg can get it too. There may be some help from ratios too, Kuchera shows over a foot for I-99/Rt 220 corridor.

As soon as the models started bumping north with the snow yesterday and Mon night, it was clear the best snow would be inland and along I-84 where many in that area had 5”. It’s too bad this wasn’t a month earlier and 3-4 degrees colder. This would be a 6-8” snow area wide if that was the case. Islip I think came in with near 0.7” liquid so the higher QPF did work out. But the high sun angle and lousy ratios killed it. The Kuchera maps that took this into account were the best.

I think the park came in with 0.4” at 7pm.

Seasonal total of 31” now. 2” or maybe a little over for the final here.

Models were too warm here at the end just like last event. In the cold areas of LI at least it was able to get down to 32 overnight, where it stayed as the snow moved in. Models predicted 36-37 and a change to rain. That made the difference. Unfortunately the city and immediate/south shore didn’t cool down overnight as much and couldn’t evap cool very much, so it was rain or snow that didn’t accumulate much.

Light rain/drizzle. Temp still 33. Wonder if we can get a few degrees below freezing tonight and freeze this all up.

That was an I-90 focused storm. So the part of I-81 near I-90 like around Syracuse did OK but they’re also way below average this winter.

I’m hoping the I-81 corridor can finally have a nice event this season. They’ve been shut out all winter.

I live in a relatively elevated, cold part of Long Island so I was hoping for something out of it but a nice ending to the winter and gets me to just about seasonal average. I’m at 31” after this event (assuming this is it). Just south of me near the south shore has pretty much nothing or had white rain all day. Very marginal where anything helps.

I have about 2” here in northern Suffolk County. Looks like we’re about done but moderate snow/sleet/grauple now.

2”. Moderate snow/snow grains/sleet. Road is slushy.

During my time at PSU in State College 2005-09 it was either coastal storms that did not spread any snow inland or raging sleet storms for the most part. Other than a few decent winters here and there since, it’s been disappointment for that area. For me it’ll be driving rain and wind but hopefully a nice event for you guys to end the winter. Looks like a nice event today. Near warning level for most of you guys?

The changeover line looks to be stuck on the barrier islands. With this activity coming from the west and declining sun maybe we can accumulate some more.

Wow, heavy snow again with a little sleet.

Back to moderate snow here. No rain yet.

Snow picking up again with some sleet.

Looks like a Round 2 coming, maybe some additional accumulation if it can be mod-heavy.

Elevation probably played a role. I’m at 200 ft while the shore definitely isn’t, and I’m further inland where it radiated better last night and we started off colder. That said it’s tapering off now and probably not much additional accumulating with the high sun angle and it being 33. This would be 4-6” if it was a month earlier with a few degree colder temps and better ratios. I guess it’s a decent winter sending though. In Long Beach it did snow for a little while but now it’s back to light rain and nothing stuck. This time of year it gets tough for the city and shore unless it’s quite cold or at night.