jm1220

Pretty intense tornado outbreak yesterday in the Austin TX area. Not quite around where I used to live on the SW side of town, but some heavily populated areas north of town (Round Rock which wasn’t tornado warned apparently as it went across I-35) and east (Elgin). Downtown dodged a bullet thankfully, it looked hairy for a while. The Jarrell 1997 outbreak was the last really destructive one around Austin. Several other intense tornadoes hit the area besides the huge Jarrell one, which would’ve been catastrophic had it hit 30 miles south of Jarrell. That’s the first outlying town in the northern suburban Austin county (Williamson County).

Seems to be like clockwork that we have this garbage big -NAO in late March now that’s only good for locking in raw easterly winds or useless cold.

70 here. Long Beach 52, Captree 48. Today’s definitely a reason I moved here from the south shore.

Gorgeous up here today, temp 64. Yep, glad I’m not on the south shore. Many more days like that to come unfortunately as the water temps creep back up.

67 degrees. Can definitely get used to this. 45 though at Captree

At this point I don't want it. Bring on the torch.

Coating here.

Borderline heavy now!

Moderate wind whipped snow in Long Beach. Sticking to all surfaces. Nice finale.

All that in central PA will dry up as it comes over the mountains and downslopes. Maybe there can be a coating with some snow squalls later under the trough. But overall a lame event. Finally seeing some snow flurries here.

These precip vs cold air race events almost never work out for the coast. We need the upper level lows to be better defined so the precip can be thrown back into the cold air. Otherwise as Snowgoose called to a T, we just dry out on the NW wind. Rain’s about done and the sky is brightening up already.

Euro’s frequently too cold in these coastal events.

Rain/some sleet. Looks like the meh/warm models were right. Congrats to those NW of the city who finally got a decent event.

I’m expecting nothing frozen or practically nothing so it’s fine. If winter ended for me with the 2” on Wed that’s totally fine by me. That said, an hour or two for the cold air advance makes a huge difference. It’s cold air vs precip remaining race.

Could still be pretty high impact since no one is expecting it now and since there’s a high chance that what falls freezes up tomorrow night.

How has the HREF been this season? It was somewhat too aggressive with the last slip/snow event this week. Is there a 12z HREF out yet?

That I do think will happen-tons of black ice on the roads Sat night. But the accumulating snow could go either way. As others mentioned an hour or two difference in the changeover time will mean a lot. NW of the city should have a decent period of snow. If it can snow hard in the city for a while it should stick since temps will be dropping below freezing.

This will be much different. The upper low structure for the 2002 storm was much better for us. The 500mb low closed off in time for heavy snow to linger west of the low as the cold air crashed in. This is much more progressive and the precip won’t be pivoting back west as it leaves. It’s a classic precip vs cold air race this time, and the flow will de drying us out in general from the NW when the cold air gets here.

Hi-res models are pretty snowy for NYC and even western LI, shows 2-3" in general. I'm pessimistic about these "wait for the cold air to come in" storms for snow in NYC and we'll have to deal with dry NW winds but I guess we'll see what happens. Anything of note I'd expect to happen NW of the city.

Yep, once again the storm is generally falling apart for Central PA in terms of anything really significant. Probably a moderate event for most. For me it is definitely colder and could be a surprise couple of inches, but in general the storm seems lamer/strung out instead so it doesn’t really nail anyone. Oh well.

I haven’t seen the upper low maps but I’d assume those aren’t closing off until the storm is done for us. That’s what would really drive the precip west. If those stay strung out/not closed off, it may be more like a glorified frontal passage.

I’d rather have the windy rainstorm and inland finally gets their overdue snowstorm than the strung out crap storm being described. Way too many of those this winter.

Maybe we can get one of those convective lows to develop and tug it east like our 1/30 storm and early Jan storm. Only seems to happen to screw us over though. In all seriousness this is still likely an inland only snow event but the progressive pattern has pulled these east/suppressed before. If I was in Central NY/PA I’d start to sweat.

30 here with thick fog.

That was a nice NAM run for just about everyone NW of I-81. Hopefully maybe a tick or two more SE so Harrisburg can get it too. There may be some help from ratios too, Kuchera shows over a foot for I-99/Rt 220 corridor.