jm1220

Flurries in Long Beach.

At least where I was this morning it was slightly lower than Irene, but also I took the pictures when the tide was already starting to go back out. Island Park was hit very hard too, several water rescues at least there. The flash freeze probably won't be happening for many, the westerly winds helped downslope and dry up the precip behind the front, and we've had sun/wind drying the roads. W or SW flow is a very inefficient way to get cold air here.

Winds definitely kicking up again behind the front here.

Wasn’t that impressive here in Long Beach. Brief heavy shower and wind actually died down lol.

Would be the fitting finale here after the chaos this morning. Hopefully it doesn’t get downsloped to death trying to get into NYC.

Sun peeking out now ahead of the squall line.

The wind here is run of the mill for a coastal storm, maybe one or two gusts to 50 mph. We’ll see what this squall line does with the cold front. Maybe the winds over the ocean are stronger and there was enough of a SE fetch to pile the water in?

New moon. Really couldn't be any better/worse timed.

Wasn’t the only model that went big with rain totals, RGEM was 2-3” for several runs. I’ll be lucky to make it to 1” here.

Much of central PA got a nice event for once today as well as W MD/WV. Up to 6” in spots. A lot of it will probably be gone by the time the cold gets there but a nice stat padder and hopefully white Christmas.

The upper low is taking forever to close off and it’s happening further NE than expected a few days ago. The only place snow amounts are a big deal are the lake effect belts. It’ll probably snow more in central PA today than Chicago.

Highly doubtful. Anything behind the cold front would get downsloped to death reaching us on the westerly winds. Wouldn't trust the clown maps.

Cutters to frigid to cutters are the worst. I'd rather it be mild if I know it won't be snowing.

It'll be a wild 48-72 hours. Heavy rain, 50-60mph winds for most of us, crash freeze (hopefully not flash freeze since the cold front might have little precip) and high below 20 on Christmas Eve.

NAM might be too cold but it's still showing NYC getting below 10 and high of around 17 on Christmas Eve with still gusty WSW wind. Damn shame it can't be with some snow. I doubt there'll be a flash freeze, 95% of the precip will be with the warm front.

Hopefully the coastal flood threat would be too. Major flooding predicted in some of the back bays here. New moon doesn't help.

As a former Texan for 20 months, this will be brutal down there. And it will come in brutally. It’s been a little chilly around Austin but even we’re not in for 48 hours below freezing like they’re in for, and still horribly unprepared infrastructure wise for cold snaps like this. FWIW which is nothing I’m sure climate change is somewhat behind what’s going on but not everything since the upper Plains/Montana are still plenty cold over the last few years. Maybe El Niño or a cold AMO phase will change things up. I flew here from Austin right into the bitter Feb 2016 cold snap-ouch from nice weather there to literally the below zero day here. Hopefully La Niña finally going away can switch things up.

Yikes RGEM. It's the RGEM but it has 3-5" rain for LI and much of New England.

NAM is taking longer to close the trough off again and it keeps happening further NE/getting broader. The real "storm" aspect of it might be worse for us than over the Midwest if we're not counting the lake effect taking place in the cold behind it. Since the low is taking longer to develop and the overall trough looks broader, the wind aspect might not be as bad but still nasty. NAM gets it significantly colder than the GFS though behind the front, gets NYC to below 10 on Christmas Eve AM and still quite windy. NAM has practically no precip with the cold front so no/little flash freeze threat, rain is all with the warm front. The lake effect will be the main takeaway I'm thinking. Buffalo's in for another walloping but this time it might be the downtown area and the north side with the more SW flow.

The only way we get a substantial flash freeze is if there’s substantial precip with the cold front. Models are generally backing off that, maybe a quick 0.2” or so. Most of the rain comes with the warm front on Fri AM. And since the cold air is coming in on SW winds, it’ll be modified significantly. Still quite cold with mid to upper teens (around 10 NW) and wind but nothing that noteworthy for us.

Turning into a snowy cold front passage for most of that area and the low takes forever to organize. Sounds familiar like a certain storm on 1/29 last winter? Not to say it didn't come together for many people but it could've been way better without the competing vorts/double low.

If we were all in Chicago we'd be getting pissed at this development of these secondary "convective feedback" lows along the wave/vorts pushing out ahead of the main trough that seems to be stealing from the heavy snow CCB they would be getting. Looks like this might be real again but it wouldn't mean snow for us-but it could mean a nastier time in terms of wind and heavy rain. Sound familiar-like a certain storm on 1/29 this year where that happening probably cost NYC 12" of snow?

It doesn't even look like that big a snowstorm coming up with this late week event anywhere outside the snowbelts. Looks like the trough takes a while to close off and the surface low to deepen enough for a CCB heavy snow shield to form over the Midwest and when it does close off, the low occludes quickly and there's only really heavy snow for parts of Michigan. Our secondary low(s) along the cold front might take some of their moisture/snow away too. Chicago area might just get 3-6". Reminds me a little of the "convective feedback" area that we screamed at during the 2 January events last winter. This looks a little like that with the waves ahead of the main trough forming secondary lows that in this case hug the coast/go just inland along the cold front and might make our storm worse in terms of heavy rain and winds.

Yikes. That would make sense with the strong onshore flow though. And it’s a new moon.

Fine by me. If it won't snow I'd rather it be comfortable outside. Cutter to cold to cutter is the worst.