Indystorm

-242100- /O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-211024T2100Z/ CALDWELL MO- 340 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY... AT 339 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KINGSTON, OR NEAR HAMILTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HAMILTON AND KINGSTON.

Loss of daylight will be a problem as the second line approaches.

You may get lucky. Storms are exploding from Columbia Mo to Macomb...then there is a break and then the line in nw Mo.

Tornado watch issued till this evening for almost all of Missouri and west central Illinois. Confirmed tor heading nw of St. Joe Missouri already. I will probably keep posting in this thread rather than central since the storms will be moving east later today.

WFUS53 KEAX 241912 TOREAX WFUS53 KEAX 241912 TOREAX KSC043-MOC003-087-241945- /O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0016.211024T1912Z-211024T1945Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 212 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DONIPHAN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT. * AT 212 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TROY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TROY, COUNTRY CLUB VILLA, COUNTRY CLUB, AMAZONIA AND FANNING. KSC043-MOC003-087-241945- /O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0016.211024T1912Z-211024T1945Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 212 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DONIPHAN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT. * AT 212 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TROY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TROY, COUNTRY CLUB VILLA, COUNTRY CLUB, AMAZONIA AND FANNING.

Large and extremely dangerous tor reported near Frederick

E NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WEST CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTH CENTRAL MASON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 415 PM CDT. * AT 350 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER HAVANA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN FULTON, WEST CENTRAL TAZEWELL AND NORTH CENTRAL MASON COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... LIVERPOOL, LITTLE AMERICA, GOOFY RIDGE AND CHATAUQUA PARK.

Those pockets of clearing behind this initial rain do concern me as it will ramp up instability. Confirmed tors sw and west of Springfield Illinois

First tor warning of today's episode. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 102 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN BOND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT. * AT 102 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARINE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... MARINE AROUND 105 PM CDT. WORDEN AND ALHAMBRA AROUND 115 PM CDT. LIVINGSTON AROUND 120 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE STAUNTON, MOUNT OLIVE, SORENTO, TAYLOR SPRINGS, LITCHFIELD, HILLSBORO AND SCHRAM CITY.

Confirmed tornado about 3:30 pm today in nw Iroquois county near Askum Illinois and Clifton....Surprise...surprise

Nothing like a good old Octobert storm with pouring rain this afternoon in Griffith.

AT 343 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEECHER TO NEAR GRANT PARK TO AROMA PARK, MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD CEDAR LAKE AND LOWELL, INDIANA. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED POWERLINES DOWN NEAR MANHATTAN, ILLINOIS.

Well, I just moved my car away from trees at the apt complex for the svr warning this next hour. Hopefully hail won't get me.

SFC-3K helicity approaching 300 se of the present tor warned storm in Will county. LCL height 1250-1500 Report of brief tor near Minooka with rotation near Shorewood.

ARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 304 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 330 PM CDT. * AT 303 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NORTH OF MINOOKA, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... JOLIET AND ELWOOD AROUND 310 PM CDT. CREST HILL AROUND 315 PM CDT. NEW LENOX, MANHATTAN AND INGALLS PARK AROUND 320 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ORLAND PARK, TINLEY PARK, MOKENA, FRANKFORT AND FRANKFORT SQUARE. THIS INCLUDES... UNIVERSITY OF ST. FRANCIS, CHANNAHON STATE PARK, CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY...ROUTE 66 RACEWAY, JOLIET JUNIOR COLLEGE, AND JOLIET SLAMMERS BASEBALL.

HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 315 PM CDT. * AT 228 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LELAND TO EARLVILLE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR EARLVILLE, LELAND, SERENA, NEWARK, AND SHERIDAN. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SHERIDAN, LAKE HOLIDAY, SOMONAUK, EARLVILLE, SERENA, NEWARK, LELAND, MILLINGTON, MILLBROOK, LISBON, PLATTVILLE, HARDING AND NORWAY.

Have appreciated your decisions as a moderator and especially your postings and educational knowledge, neighbor. Hope you will continue to enrich us with your observations.

Am concerned that the gap between the svr warned storm over Skokie and west of Aurora will soon fill in.

Definitely don't want to take my car to the repair/glass shop due to large hail since it is sitting outside my apartment with no protection. Will be watching the storms closely. Both mid and low level lapse rates are high.

That would mean NOLA definitely gets the NE eyewall.

And if we do get ERC in the Gulf I assume this would expand the wind field geographically. I haven't seen much discussion of how large this storm is expected to be , And if it gets very powerful in the Gulf this will increase surge and wave action.

I think I read somewhere that the criterion for RI is an increase in wind speed of 35 mph in a 24 hour period or a 20 mb drop in 24 hours. This storm will rapidly intensify.

At least Ricky is using observations rather than relying on CAMS As had noted in earlier update, the MCV slowly pushing east from the Quad Cities area will be the trigger mechanism for convection the rest of this afternoon into the evening. A small cluster initiated right over the Quad Cities within the past hour. Aside from near the new CI, the cumulus over most of the area isn`t all that impressive with the exception of a more congested look near the lake breeze convergence. Possible that the Quad Cities activity just pushes east with CI near it or the ascent from the MCV gradually triggers widely scattered convection through the late afternoon. Had noted a modest wind response from 850 mb up to 500 mb on the DVN VWP, so deep layer shear as the MCV transits the area could sneak up to as much as 20-25 kt. The CAMs have once again no help in the forecast, so utilizing observational trends for the most part. The anticipated scattered convection that develops should gradually building/spreading southeast through the evening. Main threat from the tallest cores will be localized wind gusts strong enough to down tree limbs (level 1 severe threat). PWATs up in the 1.7-1.9" range will certainly yield efficient rainfall rates, so a localized flooding threat is there as well.

Why is SPC relying on CAMS in this meso discussion when CAMS have been horrible recently?

mesoanalysis indicates 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present across much of Illinois owing to strong heating and surface dewpoints in the 70s F. As the cluster of storms east of Davenport continues south and east, strong buoyancy will continue to support vigorous updrafts with occasional hail or damaging gust potential. CAM guidance is not overly bullish with any organization of the ongoing convection. However, hints at a weak cold pool developing suggest some clustering may occur as storms move southeastward. Across far western Indiana and eastern Illinois, a westward propagating cluster of storms may also pose an isolated risk for downbursts this evening. Little vertical shear is in place with multicell storms exhibiting pulse characteristics. However, as additional development takes place, collapsing storms may produce a few strong wind gusts into this evening.