Indystorm

That concerns me, especially with the SPC comment that tornadic cells will increase in eastern MO

Most definitely....was in Kentland IN at the time and followed that cell all day as it moved ne.

For what it is worth TWC has a Torcon of 7 for se MO into western KY to PAH area

Cells are also starting to pop south of Kirksville MO.

Storms seem to be initiating now in the tor watch area west of Little Rock

Good rain in Griffith as well. Gotta get the moisture up here to prime overnight storms

I would guess so since I don't see much in the central webpage section

First tor watch issued from 3-11 pm from Evansville to near St. Louis to just south of MEG. High risk of strong tornadoes. 90/70 probs

Rather large section of clearing forming in western MO with ACCAS appearing in streaks

Interesting helicity max sw of Chicago at 06z on the 18z HRRR

Whenever I see a lead trough in advance of a cold front with thermos and kinematics like this I get quite concerned, particularly for storms in winter. Look out PAH area and be watchful farther north in iL and IN with an enhanced risk now up to Lafayette.

Yes, SPC has now brought the slight risk farther north due to the kinematics of this system. Will be interested to see if things go moderate farther south in the next update.

I thought this event now has enough model strength going for it to stand alone and separate from the discussion of winter wx aspects to merit its own thread. Go for it.

Helicity and dews are scary for this time of year. Shades of Nov. 6, 2005 in Evansville? Friday night could be very active with 10% tor in the enhanced area.....I will focus on Memphis to EVV area and am surprised that svr risk extends this far north to nw Indiana.

Act One of the musical "Oliver" includes the song "Where Is Love?" I want to ask where is snow?

Yea! Saw my first snow shower mixed with rain while at Oak Ridge Prairie park on the east side of Griffith a half hour ago this mid day Nov. 12......more to come I bet later today and tonight and over the weekend.

TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WESTERN PERRY COUNTY... AT 918 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WOMAC, OR 11 MILES WEST OF PERRYVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... PERRYVILLE AROUND 930 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LITHIUM AND SILVER LAKE.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 923 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021 ILC157-250300- /O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-211025T0300Z/ RANDOLPH IL- 923 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021 ..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR BREMEN! ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY... AT 922 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BREMEN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR BREMEN! THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. MASSIVE DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN ST. MARY. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NEW PALESTINE.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 915 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021 ..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CHESTER! THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * AT 914 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS OBSERVED OVER CHESTER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CHESTER!. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BREMEN AROUND 925 PM CDT.

KFVS tv Cape Girardeau has live coverage

E NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * AT 908 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ST. MARY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CHESTER AROUND 915 PM CDT. BREMEN AROUND 925 PM CDT

ERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 856 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021 MOC123-187-250215- /O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-211025T0215Z/ MADISON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO- 856 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... AT 855 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JUNCTION CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... FREDERICKTOWN, JUNCTION CITY AND COBALT AROUND 900 PM CDT.

New tor watch issued for east central and southern IL and se Mo till 1 a.m.

Columbia Missouri could soon be under the gun with confirmed tornado to the west of them. Stay safe.

Those cells north of US 36 have been rather consistent with rotation and occasional tornado touchdowns this afternoon.