Indystorm

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Areas affected...northern AL and southern middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 61... Valid 242235Z - 250000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely maximize through 8pm CDT near the AL/TN border. A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Trends in KHTX VAD data show a strengthening of the wind field in the 2-3km layer during the past 1-2 hours. This trend seemed to be necessary in order for more organized low-level mesocyclone development. The intensification of flow is resulting in around 300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per observed storm motions. Surface observations show temperature/dewpoint spreads around 10 deg F and reduced mixing compared to areas farther south. It continues to appear that the corridor for greatest tornado risk will focus near the AL/TN border with the stronger updrafts/supercells through the early evening.

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LIMESTONE...NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES... AT 642 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COURTLAND, OR 9 MILES NORTH OF MOULTON, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DECATUR, ATHENS, TRINITY, COURTLAND, NORTH COURTLAND, HILLSBORO, CHALYBEATE SPRINGS, CADDO, WHEELER AND BASHAM.

Tuscumbia and Muscle Shoals area under tor wrn now for rotation. Storm could be cycling.

And I worry that the cell may be headed for the Florence/Muscle Shoals area as well in the near future.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 534 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN COLBERT COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * AT 534 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TISHOMINGO, OR NEAR TISHOMINGO STATE PARK, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHEROKEE, RED ROCK, MALONE, POSEY LOOP, MYNOT, MT HESTER, SRYGLEY CHURCH, NEW BETHEL, CROOKED OAK, ALLSBORO, AND MAUD.

Both currently warned tor cells are moving into an area of higher helicity.

First tor warning of this episode this evening. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 522 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 545 PM CDT. * AT 522 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BURTON, OR 9 MILES WEST OF TISHOMINGO STATE PARK, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TISHOMINGO STATE PARK, TISHOMINGO, BURTON, MIDWAY, PADEN, OLDHAM, MINGO, HOLCUT, BLOODY SPRINGS, PETERTOWN, NEIL AND CARTER BRANCH.

70/40 probs for tors this evening

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northeastern Mississippi The southern half of western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected in the next couple of hours from western Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. The storm environment will be favorable for tornadoes, including a strong tornado or two, in addition to damaging winds and large hail. Storms will spread eastward through late evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Huntsville AL to 55 miles south southwest of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

I definitely support the precautions being taken. But it is part of the psychological need to feel like we are in control. I remember in elementary school having nuclear war drills (not tornado drills) where we would sit under our desk for protection. LOL.

It might as well be spring! Actually I have been watching the storms down in Arkansas in the central thread....new overnight watch raises EF 2 or greater tor probs to moderate from low.

Meso discussion out for probable tor watch for the lower Ohio Valley and adjacent areas. Very good shear and surface-3km helicity up to 500 or better. Gotta watch these warm fronts in spring especially..

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 332 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 415 PM CDT. * AT 332 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PINCKNEYVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DU QUOIN, PINCKNEYVILLE, REND LAKE AREA, SESSER, VALIER, TAMAROA, INA, NORTH CITY, WALTONVILLE, BONNIE, EWING, NASON AND ST. JOHNS.

PAH now 70/64, cloudy with a south wind gusting to 24. The threat down that way and into sw to central IN has always been for late evening into the overnight hours and kinematically rather than instability driven. Will have to see how things progress today. Any scattered clearing could rev things up a bit.

As others have said, thanks for all your hard work maintaining our food supply line. It takes all of us in this fight.

Hopefully only until the end of the month from what I have read. We've been directed to cancel our worship services here at least through Easter. Large churches can use live streaming. I'm sending e mail devotions to parishioners and calling seniors asking if they need groceries, things from the drug store, etc. Tough not being able to visit parishioners in hospital or nursing home but relying on phone calls.

Thursday March 19 late afternoon and evening could be somewhat interesting across MO, IL. and IN per this evening's NAM. Had to look at something else beside Coronavirus news to restore my sanity. But we certainly don't need any type of svr wx anywhere with all these restrictions in place. And it is the first day of astronomical spring, one of the earliest dates on record on March 19.

Just read that Indpls public library will close for an indefinite period and join other public libraries that are closing across the state after Sat, March 14 regular hours. I expect museums and movie theaters to eventually follow suit. I have read that Illinos is closing all casinos for the rest of the month of March. I intend to take this time to get out on nice days to my city, county, and state parks and nature preserves and hike during my free time. Good for the body, soul, and one's mental state in this crisis.

And for the Darwin award......a friend told me he overheard a patron telling someone not to drink Corona beer because of....you guessed it. In all seriousness.

Just read on CNN site that both Disneyland and Disneyworld are closing. Have a relative who was supposed to travel with the Highland IN band and orchestra at the end of next week to perform at the park and tour Universal as well. She's gonna be one very disappointed gal.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 536 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT. * AT 536 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR POPLAR BLUFF, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

Mesoscale Discussion 0171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Areas affected...Portions of southeast MO and northern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 121931Z - 122100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area and will be capable of severe hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Strong forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level speed max and a cold front will contribute to thunderstorm development over the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours. Storms are expected to develop first over southeast MO, then southwestward along/ahead of the cold front into northern AR. The airmass over southeast MO has been slow to destabilize because of abundant clouds, but temperatures warming into the mid 60s to low 70s near the AR/MO border will quickly advect northward to near Farmington prior to storms developing. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8.5 C/km sampled by the 18z SGF sounding, dewpoints in the low 60s, and continued heating will contribute to a corridor of 1000-1500 MLCAPE along/ahead of the front. Supercell modes will be supported by effective shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt, favorable angles between the deep-layer shear and the front, and storm speeds that will be fast enough to remain ahead of the front. Although surface winds have veered to south-southwesterly, storm motions forecast to be 270-290 deg and strong 850-700-mb wind speeds should still result in 0-1-km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 over the area, contributing to some tornado potential in the evening. Given the steep lapse rates and 50-kt winds in the 850-700-mb layer, severe hail and damaging wind gusts are also possible. A tornado Watch is likely to be issued.

..A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR POPE...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...WILLIAMSON...SALINE...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES... AT 224 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WEST FRANKFORT TO NEAR CRAINVILLE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. WIND DRIVEN 2 INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED ALONG I-57 SOUTH OF WEST FRANKFORT. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARION, HARRISBURG, ELDORADO, JOHNSTON CITY, GALATIA, GOLCONDA, PITTSBURG, CREAL SPRINGS, THOMPSONVILLE, LAKE OF EGYPT AREA, CARRIER MILLS, RALEIGH, HANAFORD, STONEFORT, WHITEASH, WILLIAMSON COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT, NEW BURNSIDE, SPILLERTOWN, BROUGHTON AND EDDYVILLE.