Indystorm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 254 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 330 PM CST. * AT 254 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COLETA, OR NEAR MORRISON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... COLETA AROUND 300 PM CST. MILLEDGEVILLE AROUND 305 PM CST. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HITT, MALVERN, FRANKLIN CORNERS, WHITE PIGEON AND CARROLL COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.

Yeah, and a number of NWS radars are having problems.

Slight risk indeed, with 5% tor probs......could be an interesting afternoon and evening. Washington IL tor was Nov. 17, 2013 so we know we can get svr in this second season. Cloud breaks over parts of IL will enhance insolation and instability. That was a high risk, PDS tor watch scenario however, as instability was much higher than what is expected today. Low pressure near KC is already prompting SPC discussion of an upcoming possible svr or tor watch for much for much of central to ne MO into west central IL.

The lowest estimate of world wide deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic is 21 million, when world population was less than a third of today....675,000 deaths in America. Source....John Barry's "The Great Influenza," a very good historical read. My take is that there is a divide between those who want to get the economy going at all costs and let the virus chips fall where they may and those who believe the government has a role in public health to restrict certain freedoms in the interest of greater good, such as gas, food, and other types of rationing during WWII.

Just heard on WGN tv news that Gov. Holcomb is activating the national guard to assist at nursing homes since over half of the deaths have occurred there. They will not be performing medical duties but will assist with clerical and screening activities to relieve some of the burden on these courageous first responders who have been dealing with the stress of caring for all these months. Don't know if this is just in selected counties or statewide for nursing homes in Indiana.

And met students and scientists can use Delta for some interesting doctoral dissertations in the future. A very perplexing and surprising hurricane.

Moderately Unstable, you are superb in your contributions to this board with very reasoned explanations. I had an earth science degree with a smattering of met courses decades ago and am deeply appreciative for your input here. Keep up the good work. From what happened to Delta yesterday I think we're into nowcasting.

Lightning is also increasing on the ne, north, and nw sides of the system.

The westward moving clouds off to the se of the storm are from the ne/easterly shear which has helped cause the weakening of the storm. Once Delta continues to move nw into the Gulf that shear will lessen as it rounds the base of high pressure in the eastern gulf and enable strengthening to occur once again.

The resort city of Cancun has a population of 743,000. If this does become category five back out over the gulf I would think eyewall replacement cycles along with shear would be the best hope of any possible weakening as it approaches northern gulf coast. Even if it goes back to a three, Katrina did have category 5 surge due to its intensity over the gulf as has been mentioned. This looks to be a monster in the making wherever it travels.

So we have now exceeded 200,000 deaths in America due to COVID, a figure we weren't expected to reach until Election day. Now one model says we may hit nearly 400,000 deaths by the start of the new year if we maintain present behavior. And there are still many who think this is not a problem or will somehow go away on its own. I was startled to see a quote by Soren Kierkegaard from the early 19th century that seems strangely applicable to today. "There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true." Food for thought in our era of disinformation.

New SPC meso discussion indicates 40% chance of a svr t storm watch being issued for northern IL and Chicago. 700 mb cap is weakening in far northern IL.

Convection blossoming in lower MI, especially just north of Grand Rapids......oh, well.... and SPC maintains slight risk tonight with a 5% tor risk smack dab over Chicago.

Wagons north according to SPC current meso discussion.

From LOT's afternoon discussion with hours of concern from 7 to midnight central time..highlights what we have been discussing Putting this altogether, a highly conditional severe thunderstorm threat exists after 00Z/7pm through the evening hours roughly around and north of the Kankakee river Valley westward toward Peoria. The most significant limiting factor will be the ability for incoming forcing to erode enough of the substantial low-level cap currently in place. If sustained deep updrafts can develop, the environment is favorable for semi-discrete linear segments with embedded supercell structures capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. Additionally, a conditional QLCS tornado/mesovortex threat exists within any convection given impressively curved low-level hodographs producing effective SRH values possibly to 500 m2/s2 early to mid- evening. Marginal low- level CAPE values will be a major detriment to this potential, with a low-level warm nose below 700 hPa limiting low-level vortex stretching. Will still need to closely monitor the fine details of the thermo environment this evening as a kinematic environment like this that is highly supportive for tornadoes leaves some concern.

80/66 at Lansing. I'm going to be an optimist here and still follow SPC's afternoon slight outlook. Severe meso parameters continue to increase and a cap of 10-12 at 700 mb can be breakable. At least it's not thermonuclear.

I think we will recover with sunshine already being reported in WI and ne IA, great mid level lapse rates and high helicity coming in from the nw, increasing dew points and temps and enough time between now and this evening for insolation to work. Things might just be rocking this evening in the Chicago metro area, WI, and northern IL.

NHC says storm is strengthening quickly and forecast to become a hurricane later today per latest update.

Feel for you. Was only out about 4 hours here that evening. Gonna be a very interesting and perhaps historic time watching the tropics as we move into the coming week.

Pretty dark now here in Griffith. Storm moving in.

Don't PDS tornado watches automatically include high risk? Wondered about procedure for PDS severe.

Yeah, they had that tornado as well right downtown.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1208 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1152 AM TSTM WND GST 2 WNW LE GRAND 42.02N 92.81W 08/10/2020 M106 MPH MARSHALL IA MESONET PERSONAL WEATHER STATION KIAMARSH15.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1046 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 IAC015-099-125-127-153-169-181-101630- /O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-200810T1630Z/ POLK IA-STORY IA-MARSHALL IA-MARION IA-JASPER IA-BOONE IA-WARREN IA- 1046 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR POLK...STORY...WESTERN MARSHALL...NORTHERN MARION...JASPER... EASTERN BOONE AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES... AT 1045 AM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF BOONE TO SAYLORVILLE LAKE TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VAN METER, MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DES MOINES, AMES, WEST DES MOINES, ANKENY, URBANDALE, JOHNSTON, CLIVE, NEWTON, ALTOONA, PELLA, NORWALK, PLEASANT HILL, GRIMES, NEVADA, WINDSOR HEIGHTS, CARLISLE, BON

I wonder if these earlier storms from this morning in WI and now in ne IA will produce an outflow boundary which could be intercepted by the oncoming line from the Des Moines area later today to somewhat enhance tornado probabilities in the northern IL region, however small they may be at present thinking.