Indystorm

Lapse rates still look very good over northern IL and IN for Tuesday afternoon and evening (over 8)/ per GFS this evening. Will have to watch how this progresses as we get closer.

Good idea to help maintain one's mental health in all this since social distancing might be dragging on through May and not just the end of April. Our Governor Holcomb has just said two weeks more for stay home advisory but he has already cancelled collective school meetings for the rest of the academic year, so I think his comment is just a way of softening the blow until the time comes to extend the shelter in place once again timewise.

It's starting to get to all of us.

Indiana's Governor and State School Supt. have just announced this afternoon that all K-12 public and private schools must continue with e learning to the end of the school year.

Interesting article on how warmer Gulf temps could impact tornado and hurricane season this year. https://www.inquirer.com/wires/wp/weather-hurricanes-tornados-20200331.html

Now 3873 COVID 19 deaths in America as we enter the month of April, more deaths than during Katrina, 9/11, or Antietam, the bloodiest day of the Civil War.

Yeah, 6.5, ne of Boise, largest in state since 1983 . And on March 18 a 5.7 mag quake hit just west of Salt Lake City with 600 measured aftershocks. Wow!

Cheers to you and your doctor, Jackstraw, for being proactive. I am one of the seniors on this board and have my next wellness check in May following one in December. Have been ok with no symptoms so far. And Hoosier, I have found it is easier to get toilet paper at CVS than at my local IGA.

Looking at morning NAM and GFS parameters today I would have to agree with Hoosier's post above that things all depend upon the strength of the lake influence wrt how far north that warm front is gonna go on Sat afternoon and evening. There's gonna be a heck of a gradient and potential for svr storms between west central and ne Illinois though.

223 deaths reported Wed. in America....a new high for a single day.

Scary NAM forecast for the Calumet region for Sat. afternoon & eve using ye olde clown maps. If NAM is slower it could be even more intense due to WAA.

Good question, particularly with the set up coming for this weekend here in the Midwest. I think if you were a journalist, photographer, scientist or tv film crew person things might go easier with you than if you were just chasing for the heck of it. But I don't know.

If this has already been discussed somewhere in this thread, please excuse me. Wed. March 25 USA Today has an article entitled "Social Distancing or Tornado Shelter. Which do you pick? It mentions that Newcastle OK has a city owned shelter that holds 1000 people but it is closed for now. Obviously I think an oncoming tornado poses a much higher risk than coronavirus for the length of time people might be in a shelter for the duration of the tornado, but what about during recovery time if the shelter is used to house those whose homes have been destroyed. Interesting article especially since we are going into the active spring tornado season.

Just read that Waffle House has closed over 400 restaurants. PUBLISHED: MAR 25TH, 2020 - 4:30PM (EDT)UPDATED: MAR 25TH, 2020 - 4:32PM (EDT) ATLANTA (WXIA) — You know it's bad when Waffle House is closed. Waffle House has been a part of life in the south and other parts of the U.S. since its founding in suburban Atlanta in early September 1955. The diner-style restaurant quickly spread across much of the southern United States, and is noted for always being open, with nearly 2,000 locations, serving breakfast, lunch and dinner at all times of the day and night. They started using the Waffle House Index during natural disasters, particularly for hurricanes, in 2004. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) even began using it to determine how bad things were in particular areas. In 2011, former FEMA director Craig Fugate mentioned what he termed the "Waffle House Index," as a measure of this. "The Waffle House test just doesn't tell us how quickly a business might rebound — it also tells how the larger community is faring," said a FEMA blog post from 2011.

This is much farther north from where SPC currently has a svr outlook. Don't know if it's the NAM just being the NAM.

18z NAM starting to look interesting wrt parameters for west central and ne IL this coming Sat. afternoon and evening.

Well, I tried to get out and walk a little bit for some exercise this late afternoon. Went to Flat Fork Creek park just a mile west of me. I could barely find a parking spot and paved trails were like Disney world during holiday time. Needless to say I didn't walk very far before deciding to turn around and go home to avoid the throngs of people. And we in Indiana are supposed to shelter in place except for some exercise? Too risky for me at this time of day even if it was outdoors.

Mesoscale Discussion 0230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Areas affected...northern AL...southern TN...northwestern GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 61... Valid 250005Z - 250100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues. SUMMARY...A new convective watch is possible to the east of Tornado Watch #61. A tornado risk will continue this evening for portions of northern AL and southern middle TN. DISCUSSION...Trends in KHTX VAD show further intensification of the low-level wind profile during the past 1-2 hours. 0-1 km SRH has increased from around 300 m2/s2 to over 600 m2/s2. Surface analysis indicates the area with the lowest temperature/dewpoint spreads (10 deg F) is in the counties adjacent to the TN border in northern AL. Farther south, warmer temperatures have resulted in spreads in the 15-20 deg F range which would lessen but not nullify tornado potential. Given the strengthening low-level shear for mesocyclone organization/persistence, it seems plausible the tornado risk will eventually include the eastern counties of Tornado Watch #61 later this evening. An additional convective watch issuance is possible to the east of the ongoing watch during the next hour or so

That TN cell appears to be a right mover at the present. Not good for Chattanooga environs if this keeps up.

Hackleburg cell now tor warned

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Areas affected...northern AL and southern middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 61... Valid 242235Z - 250000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely maximize through 8pm CDT near the AL/TN border. A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Trends in KHTX VAD data show a strengthening of the wind field in the 2-3km layer during the past 1-2 hours. This trend seemed to be necessary in order for more organized low-level mesocyclone development. The intensification of flow is resulting in around 300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per observed storm motions. Surface observations show temperature/dewpoint spreads around 10 deg F and reduced mixing compared to areas farther south. It continues to appear that the corridor for greatest tornado risk will focus near the AL/TN border with the stronger updrafts/supercells through the early evening.

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LIMESTONE...NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES... AT 642 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COURTLAND, OR 9 MILES NORTH OF MOULTON, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DECATUR, ATHENS, TRINITY, COURTLAND, NORTH COURTLAND, HILLSBORO, CHALYBEATE SPRINGS, CADDO, WHEELER AND BASHAM.

Tuscumbia and Muscle Shoals area under tor wrn now for rotation. Storm could be cycling.

And I worry that the cell may be headed for the Florence/Muscle Shoals area as well in the near future.