Indystorm

Mesoscale Discussion 1112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Lower Michigan...northwestern Indiana...central Illinois...into east central Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 321... Valid 261947Z - 262145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 321 continues. SUMMARY...More substantive thunderstorm intensification is ongoing and likely to continue through late afternoon. Stronger storms will continue to pose a risk for tornadoes, with organizing clusters also posing a risk for damaging downbursts. Areas east and southwest of Tornado Watch 321 are being monitored for the possibility of additional watches. DISCUSSION...A remnant convectively generated surface boundary/deformation zone between a pair of MCV remains the primary focus for deepening convective development and scattered vigorous embedded thunderstorm activity. Boundary layer dewpoints are increasing through the lower 70s F across interior southern Lower Michigan, and remain in the mid 70s F southwest of Chicago into the St. Louis area along this zone, where low-level hodographs also remain sizable beneath a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet. The primary jet core now appears to be nosing into southern Lower Michigan, but a secondary core appears to be currently migrating across/northeast of the St. Louis area. Despite weak lapse rates, the high boundary-layer moisture content appears to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Coupled with the strong low-level vertical shear, the environment appears to be coming increasingly conducive to strengthening low-level mesocyclones within the stronger storms through late afternoon. These may occasionally pose a risk for tornadoes and/or strong downbursts.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 208 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT. * AT 208 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CRETE, OR OVER STEGER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ST. JOHN AROUND 215 PM CDT. SAUK VILLAGE, LYNWOOD AND FORD HEIGHTS AROUND 220 PM CDT. SCHERERVILLE, LANSING AND DYER AROUND 225 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIGHLAND, MUNSTER, MERRILLVILLE, GRIFFITH AND GARY. THIS INCLUDES... ILLIANA MOTOR SPEEDWAY.

Has begun pouring now in Griffith. Unless this initial line stabilizes the atmosphere I will be concerned about possible recovery and the storms now ne of St. Louis moving up this way because of boundaries this line will set.

In addition to my own Calumet region I am also getting really concerned for north central IN because of higher helicity, breaks in the overcast, and discrete cells starting to pop up ahead of the main line. Although cells are moving ne at around 40 mph the line seems to be moving fairly slowly eastward.

Helicity is greater....150 to 250 as storms cross the line into IN, but as has been mentioned...lapse rates are rather meager although this could be compensated for by rich moisture and dews.

Gee, Chicago Storm didn't have to head too far south to central IL for his tornado chase today.

Current Wilmington warned tor cell is out in front of the line moving northeast.

Tor warnings already popping for Livingston and Will Counties.

That bit of clearing in central IL does concern me as it adds to instability but it probably won't last too long. Partly sunny here.

SPC highlights a slight risk northeastward from nw IN for later this Saturday. Watch the WF and outflow boundaries this afternoon from earlier convection. Multiple tornadoes in north central IN surprised me Friday evening. Keep watching HRRR throughout the day which also puts north central IL and Chicago metro in the risk zone as well.

Alton Illinois is currently 86/79 and sunny. Ugh!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 618 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT. * AT 616 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CORNING, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... LAKE ICARIA STATE PARK, CORNING MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, CARBON AND PRESCOTT.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING 543 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021 First warning of tonight's episode THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN OTOE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT. * AT 543 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNADILLA, OR 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN, MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... UNADILLA AND SYRACUSE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

News reports say it had been sinking incrementally and unequally since the nineties. built in 1981.

14 level cap over much of eastern KS at this time. Will take awhile for storms to develop in the area but ACCAS forming.in Thursday tor watch region.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 957 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BRANCH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN... NORTHWESTERN HILLSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 1030 PM EDT. * AT 957 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER COLDWATER, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... QUINCY AROUND 1010 PM EDT. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 IN MICHIGAN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 20.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 827 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * AT 827 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LA MOTTE, OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GALENA, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BELLEVUE AROUND 845 PM CDT. Structure and power line damage reported.

ok when are we gonna have a meso discussion about a watch for Illinois with those possibly tornadic supercells approaching?

The IA line seems to be morphing into supercells as it approaches the higher helicity to its east.

Even though there is no watch in the area at present I must say I am concerned with the 400 helicity in central and northern IL and on into WI with an approaching cold front and t storms to the west of the area.

Svr warnings being issued now in northern IN.

That remnant weak MCV might just be able to prime the pump for eastern areas and there may be a second round with the front overnight.

About time....parameters are good except for the cap to the west which should erode here.

Sorry for the bad luck but at least it wasn't baseball size hail like they had just east of Indpls the other day.

Still a bit of inhibition in that area. But look just behind it at some cells forming with lightning near the MS river.