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StormchaserChuck

Professional Forecaster
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About StormchaserChuck

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    ahead of time
  • Birthday 06/06/1987

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    Bel Air, MD

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  1. I'll reply, the prediction was Irma would hit Florida or go into the Gulf, and in the last few days I did think the strength would carry it further west than forecast. It was a good forecast though because when I said 5% chance of east coast hit north of Florida, when the majority of models were showing North Carolina. The gasoline thread is potentially an awesome point. 18 hours after this thread is made, it's not such a good forecast https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15
  2. Models tightly clustered out to sea. Strong ridging west and east of where it needs to be, timing a bit off for west track. Much lower chances today because of model consensus, which is good at this range.
  3. Becoming more cyclically organized but starting to bias toward the NE side. It's hard to get Cat 5 in this condition. The radar is probably off center or something
  4. In unfavorable MJO
  5. Anyway, my intuition is awesome and pattern recognition The science is mostly for fun... but no one wants to discuss
  6. Pretty cool that Irma and Maria will be 2 of the 4 most furthest NE.
  7. Maria happening in unfavorable MJO
  8. In my experience of watching storms and models for a long time northern latitude systems are handled poorly and at this range, and almost always verifies not as much impact, especially the stronger the south storm is. But this was more so the case yesterday than today, it's kind of been phased out a little bit.
  9. In 36 hours, Cat4-5 Maria will pass through this box. Since 1948, 20 Hurricanes have passed through the area. 5 Went out to Sea 3 Hit North Carolina 5 Hit Florida 6 moved into the Gulf or Carribbean These are 500mb anomaly loops of each set. You decide. Out to Sea. North Carolina. Florida. Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean. The Florida/Gulf maps are much closer match than North Carolina and out to sea. NAO region, all. Cat 3+ that made landfall, strength at landfall: 1 Cat5, 2 Cat4, 2 Cat3, 2 Cat2 predict Cat3-4 at landfall. I've discussed in other threads that La Nina is much stronger than expected, and models may not be picking this up. ENSO is very highly correlated to Atlantic storm track
  10. I don't see any way Maria goes so far NW to hit the southeast coast in this awesome ridging pattern. It would have to be 45 degrees for 2000 miles.
  11. pretty cool. Maybe La Nina is just creating super favorable conditions right now
  12. Didn't reach Cat 4 though. Thanks for the posts.
  13. I think what is happening at higher latitudes is more important because of how models are often far off with variables like Jose. It's classic not only for a Florida hit, but the storm turning into the Gulf.
  14. Can you find a storm that strengthened to Cat 4 from 1 in 500 miles, east of 40W, north of 15N?
  15. less weight on Jose, I think. easy model bias identified. Maria is its own beast