Upstate Tiger

After this cool down this week, Indian Summer looks to return until the end of the month. Mild and dry.

39 this morning in West Lincoln County. First morning under 40.

Latest from CPC...still predicting a weak La Nina although we remain in a neutral enso. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

My wife and I have been praying constantly for you guys! Reach out via email if I can help with anything. Stay strong

You know I wanted to post something about late next week but conscience got the best of me. Hard to root for cold weather right now or talk about leaves turning.

Wow. 911MBs. Havent had a chance to look at satellite today. Is he geographically as large as Katrina or Helene?

That’s good for Florida.

Why does the NHC project so much weakening before landfall. Is it supposed to undergo a lot of sheer or dry air?

Never forget, beauty is in the eye of the beholder

Will the dam hold with those kind of rates? I remember the stories from my grandmother who lived on the Keowee River as a kid and the Toxaway dam failed.

Be interesting to see how low she goes. Anything in the 940s is a really dangerous storm. She still has several hours before landfall to undergo rapid intensification.

Yep. Opal was a very strong storm. Differene is that is was very compact like Camille.

If I had told you a couple of years ago "you will be under a Tropical Storm Watch before you are under a Winter Storm Watch again" I would have been horse laughed off the site

Today's ENSO update from IRI: The CPC ENSO Outlook predicts a clear preference for La Niña onset in Sep-Nov (66% chances) with continuation until Jan-Mar, 2025 (57% chances), and then a return to ENSO-neutral state during boreal spring of 2025. In contrast, the objective IRI ENSO forecasts show late, weak and temporary La Niña conditions in Oct-Dec, and Nov-Jan. The forecasts then show a return to ENSO-neutral conditions that remain dominant during the boreal winter and spring of 2025. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

57 in west Lincoln this morning. Very nice!

Hard to believe! Growing up in the 70s in SC I was always jealous because it seemed Hickory, Winston, Greensboro, and Raleigh got more snow than us in Greenville. And we got a lot by today’s standards.

It appears that the ENSO neautral phase is lingering and the move to La Nina is slower than forecast. Would love to have one neutral winter or at least remain neutral until early winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

1.5” and still raining. So thankful!!

Got to 96 in Lincolnton.

A refreshing 60 degrees this morning in Lincoln County.

Katydids a few weeks later than last year. Grandmother used to say you could count 16 weeks from the first time you hear katydids to the first frost/freeze. It was amazing how close she would always hit it. I’m afraid this could be a repeat of the 2016 fall, dry and hot.

Well I finally got a drop of rain. It wasn't much more than a drop. But I can't say I haven't had a drop in a month.

I think you make some valid points. I have been closely following the winter weather in this area since 76/77 when I was 12. There were some epic winters from 76/77 - 82/83. After that, it seemed winter storms became less frequent throughout the remainder of the 80's. Yes we had the epic cold snap in January of 85 and the big dogs in Janaury of 87 & 88, but that was about it. I kept thinking this is just a pattern change like the 50's and it would snap back like it did in the 60's. But, it didn't happen in the 90's either. We had the Super Storm in 93. 95/96 was very reminicent of the "old pattern" Anyway, the climate, as it always has, is changing and is not the same as 50 years ago.

I posted in obs that it was 47 this morning in West Lincoln County. Pretty amazing to be less than 5 weeks from July 4. Love it. Pic from last evening sitting on deck waiting on deer. Almost needed a sweater.

47 this morning in West Lincoln county. Wow.