Upstate Tiger

I know many of us in the south get frustrated when we do not see snow when it is forecast, especially since it has become so rare in recent years (or decades). I look at like this. I am probably the biggest winnie on here but if there is no snow this weekend, so be it. I'll be disappointed but it was fun tracking the last couple of days. It's a welcome diversion from all the serious things we deal with in life. I will just move on to looking for the next threat. If nothing happens this year, I will start reading ENSO predictions in June and start tracking again next fall. I just feel for the younger posters under 40 who did not get to experience some of the great winters of the 70's and 80's around here. But even then, a good year was 2-3 events. The climate has changed. In next 20 years or so when I am gone, you younger posters will probably be experiencing another shift. That's what the weather does. That's what makes it so fun to follow.

Yeah. I gotta say there’s a lot of handwringing here in western NC and SC outside the mountains over what happens but I would be most nervous if I was in eastern Tenn.

Nice

Just got a peak at the Euro. Hospital occasionally expects me to do some work. They're funny that way. I actually like that track and it's more in line with what Snowgoose was saying. I think anyone between I 75 and I 85 is still in play.

Has it been sampled??. Not paying attention to any forecasts until the Chinese ballon samples it.

Yep, don't like that track. Hope Matt chimes in again...

Looks like the mountains and Tennessee about to get NAM'd.

I think the forecaster at KGSP said it best in this mornings AFD “we will likely have to go right to the eve of the event to determine precipitation types”. Complicated dynamics. Oh what I’d give for a 1038 over western NY.

Nothing particularly concerning to me on the 18z. Track means everything here. We’re 4 days out.

If the GFS is further west with a couple of runs, I’ll call it a trend. But since the others are catching up to what it has shown for days, I’m going to reserve judgment.

84 hour NAM

About to write the same thing. That would be a smart play at this point. This is the best Euro operational run yet. Tomorrow afternoon should give us some sort of sense plus we start getting in NAM range.

You can hear the Euro groaning as it begrudgingly yields to the GFS

Not that I am hedging my bets or anything.... but still a signal for something to follow next weekend in case ya'll try and run me out of town this weekend.

OK. Added thread. Maybe Buckeye or someone can pin it...

Here you go! The last ULL I was in was March 2009. Hope this is repeat!

True, but I remember the Monday after the great Sunday President's Day Blizzard of 1979, temps climbed to 46 the next day.

Sure! After all, this winter storm is looking more probable than us beating the Heels in Chapel Hill this weekend.

KGSP AFD for the weekend .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 pm EST Tuesday: Considerable uncertainty remains over the handling of the upstream trough axis crossing the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Friday night. The 12Z GFS continues to feature a 500 mb low center cutting off and migrating over the Deep South on Saturday. The GEFS spread is quite large, however, and the NAM/CMC feature either a more northerly track of the low or an open wave. Until recently, the ECMWF runs have had a much more progressive, positive tilt, open wave moving through the Appalachians. Recent ECM trends, however, have been slightly toward the deeper and more dynamic operational GFS, and this has some implications for wintry weather potential over our area this weekend. For now, the forecast has been nudged slightly wetter through the Saturday night/Sunday morning period. This keeps mountain northwest flow snow showers solidly in the forecast Friday night through Saturday night, but also creates low end potential for a wintry mix east of the mountains through Sunday morning. Confidence remains very low on this and ensemble mean solutions still do not support much of any accumulating snow east of the mountains over the weekend.

Euro trended better for sure. Still did not go full GFS.

Yep. Curious to see the Euro shortly. It had this setup a couple of days ago but backed off.

2 Sundays in a row! I am ashamed that some of you people have already thrown in the towel!

I'll start a thread...The Great 2023 Valentines Weekend Blizzard

Would love to see another March 2009 event. We got 8" of heavy wet snow in the upstate with very intense thundersnow. I was driving back from Columbia that Sunday evening and it was blinding. Thankfully I had 4WD. That was a ULL event.

Does next weekend have legs???....Probably more like a toenail but both GFS and Euro show something to watch at least.