Upstate Tiger

GSP AFD... Extended models show the development of a long wave structure with a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS with numerous chances for shortwave passages through Wednesday. This pattern also gives generally lower thickness levels and increased chances for snow over the GSP area through Wednesday. Moisture is still limited. Still the EC model has some snow over most of the CWA on Tuesday. The GFS model, however, restricts frozen precip to the higher elevations. Overall, chances for winter conditions increase into mid next week, though no major event is current on the horizon. Yeah but I want a major event!!!!

Weather app now saying 22 MPH sustained with 50 MPH wind gust at my home in Cherryville. Just looking at doorbell cam it is hard to validate. If valid, there will be major power outages. Very windy at the hopital here in Gastonia.

Weather app says 21 mph sustained and 49 mph gust at my home in Cherryville. Got to say though that my doorbell camera doesn’t look like it’s blowing that hard. Going to be a wild day. Stay safe.

GSP's morning AFD on next week'sa potential event. The forecaster put is about as good as you could... An interesting set up is showing up in guidance by D7, but still a lot more questions than answers this far out before going into the nitty gritty details as differences between model guidance suggests they don`t know what the heck is going to happen with the sensible weather beyond this upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to begin the period at or slightly above normal on Friday before below-normal values settle in through the rest of the medium range following Friday`s system.

Well there will be a big storm in the south it looks line. Right now Tenn forum should be happy. We’ll see if that holds over the next several days. My guess is it moves back and forth until Friday or Saturday.

In January of 1977, I believe it was 16th and 17th, we had a very similar set up as this. Cold on the front end allowed for a little frozen in the higher elevations. Then heavy rain, high wind warning, and even a tornado watch. When I went to bed that evening, the temp at GSP was 66. Winds howled all night with some stations reporting 80 MPH gusts. When I got up, we had a dusting of snow blowing around and temps in the 20's. About 8:30 AM a snow squal came through with absolute whiteout conditions. Temp dropped to 19 degrees and stayed there all day. We had occassional snow flurries in the upstate all day and the winds were gusting to 50 MPH. Wonder if any of you other boomers like me remember that one?

Yeah. This period is worth watching. We’ve got cold coming and an active jet stream. I really don’t want to be sitting in the jackpot zone outside 7 days. We all know how that works out. I also think the warmup will be muted and short lived.

We’ve been stuck at 34/26 for last couple of hours. Wished I could stay up a couple more hours as I think we get a few flakes and some sleet before WAA takes over.

Temp falling like cheap lard in Cherryville. Down to 36/27 at 643. About 5 degrees colder than prog’d. Hmmm

The Pacific looks like its not going to cooperate. Will have to rely on HL blocking IMO.

Ops not showing anthing to hang our hats on but with active pattern, arctic air in our hemisphere, blocking posibly showing up, who knows? It only takes one

Looking at the last 24 hours of model runs leads me to believe the next 2-3 weeks are going to be a wild ride.

European with a little something for next week. Temps need a little help.

Looks like a couple of opportunities over the next couple of weeks to track. Would love to see the pattern follow 79-80 given a possible relaxation. Snow and cold first week of January. 2 weeks of mild followed by a historic February.

I'm a glass half full guy usually looking for some silver lining but the LR this morning is not good. Once again the Pacific is really screwing us in the east. This time it's causing mild Pacific air to flood Canada over the next couple of weeks. I'm always optimistic when Canada has cold air. When it doesn't, it's no bueno.

Temps in Canada look better with afternoons runs for week of Christmas. This coincides with pattern change many have referenced. Probably not going to help us with next weekend and midweek storm afterwords but we’ll see.

Both overnight GFS runs show opportunities beginning next weekend. The concern is the surface maps. Canada is pretty much devoid of arctic air on the 06Z.

18 in Cherryville this morning. Pretty cold for the Piedmont in November.

Lots of cold air building in Canada over the next 10-14 days...poised to move into the west it looks like Can't catch a break with the PNA, at least yet. But hope springs eternal when it is only 6 hours until the next run...

From KGSP. Will be a mess for early travelers, but we need the rain! This should kick off an active couple of weeks. This high will remain transitory into Mon and ridge down the east into the FA maintaining near normal temperatures. Meanwhile, northern stream Pac energy combines with the srn STJ over the West in a split flow regime, which then creates a well defined and deep mlvl trof across the MS Valley by Mon night. This trof will be highly dynamic as deep layered shear nears 100 kts and combines with good GOM moisture flux and creates a good set-up for sigfnt rainfall and possibly a few organized thunderstorms across the srn half of the area. There`s remains uncertainty with the amt of destabilization ahead of the llvl forcing, but the model trends are going up with the ECMWF and CMC models indicating arnd 200 J/kg of sbCAPE within the warm sector during max heating. So a high shear / low CAPE strong storm environment is looking more possible. Soundings also show very high levels of 0-3 km helicity (>600 m2/s2), however, this is mostly due to the aforementioned sfc wedge producing ne/ly at the sfc. But as usual, the wedge bndry areas will suspect for more organized cell development. In any case, this system looks to be a good precip producer, the best in the last few months, with possibly 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain over many areas thru Tue night. With high cloud cover and ne/ly flow, highs Mon thru Wed will be held abt 5 degrees below normal with lows averaging arnd normal.

If the 12 GFS is to be believed, we enter a very active period beginning next Tuesday through the end of the run. Hoping it is right this time and we get the storms showing up on this run. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

Thanksgiving fantasy. Honestley, I'd take anything wet falling from the sky.

Looks like we could get a coastal low on Sunday. Not a moment too soon. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday: Rainfall will continue on Saturday as the surface front makes its way across the region...likely exiting to the southeast by late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Thereafter, deterministic guidance continues to depict it stalling, whereupon a robust upper shortwave will arrive and instigate cyclogenesis along the Carolina coast. This`ll give us another shot at some rainfall...with the new QPF forecast giving the SC zones another 0.25" or more on Sunday and Sunday night (more than half an inch per the 12z GFS, which ironically has trended toward stronger cyclogenesis than the ECMWF after barely developing the feature at all on the 06z cycle). All things considered, while this rain won`t quiet offset the ongoing drought, it`ll bring some much-needed moisture to the region.