BxEngine

Ok, so lets try this. Can you explain why the models manage to show a trough over us even with no atlantic blocking, no disturbed vortex, a bad pacific, and the mjo in the warm phases? If models are only part of it, shouldnt we try to break down how the models are wrong when saying theyre wrong? Dont take offense, this isnt directed at you specifically, but one only needs to read through the monthly pages of our snowiest months to find posts saying “winter over”. Everyone blasts tony and metsfan for their at times unbelievably idiotic optimism, but plenty here do the same shit from the other side, either in a rush to be correct, or in some cases, they play debbie downer to lower their own expectations so when snow does come they create a little bubble of happiness. Lets try to at least act like we’ve been doing this hobby for long enough to sound better than grandma looking at caterpillar stripes.

Can you explain using something remotely scientific, why you believe any significant pattern change is weeks away and why the models showing a trough in the east within 10 days or so are incorrect?

Like what? What other tools are you using to debate here? This back and forth isnt going to change anyone's minds to begin with, but lets at least try to go with something other than “cuz i think it will”.

You know its bad when you characterize discussing weather on a weather forum as “excited”. Thought you were done posting till we had an event to track?

30

First round of golf of the year complete. Game is in mid season form. The form is a turd in a toilet....

@Allsnow sup my dude!?

Holy irony batman

.6 is quite a swing in 2 days.

But underperforming vs areas near you isnt the same as vs your average. If you dont know your average, how can you state that youre below average? Im guessing your average is probably in the 26-30” range, and im guessing at least 6 or 7 of the last 10 winters, including 2 of the last 3, youve probably reached at least 25”?

But what is your average? And what did you get in 2017-18? 16-17? I dont think youre below average most of the past few years. In fact id be willing to bet youve been above average at least 6 or 7 of the previous 10 winters.

Huh? Whats your average snowfall vs the last few winter totals?

The problem with final monthly departures is they often dont tell the entire story. Some (not all obviously) who are attempting to take credit for hitting the final departures correctly while also making statements in late november/early december about the entire month being benign and warm are part of the reason for the disjointed and lazy discussion that sometimes invades otherwise sound meteorological discussion.

Just because the sensible weather averages out to the same over a 30 or 31 day period as another year doesnt mean anything beyond that. We have an incredible amount of data available to us, and as weather hobbyists we should be able to parse that data better than the average local news watcher.

Wut

That didnt happen. Snoski (well he was jetski at the time) said that winter was over in december.

You guys gotta be ****ing kidding me.

You mean the models can change? So declaring something over before it starts isnt the smartest idea? I wonder why people would make such stark declarations on a weather forum like that. Seems like some arent here to actually discuss the weather, but are only here to either troll or to build up their fragile ego by claiming something before anyone else did. Either way, its beyond tiresome and it wont be happening going forward. and so we’re clear, its easy to search through all of a poster’s posts, especially when they were suspended for 6 months which significantly shortens the pages one needs to scroll through. One doesnt need to remember any specifics beyond numerous attempts at making calls that ended up incorrect.

Im liking january more and more by the minute...

Coulda told you it was gonna fail as soon as the trolls and warmistas started saying it was a legit real cold shot.

You're in financial services too?

This stupid website only lets me upload them if i take them like that or screencap them lol...my som took the pic tho lol

Gonna sublimate anyway, doesnt matter.

About 400’ visibility right now, less when the winds pick up....pretty intense