hawkeye_wx

Wow, I had no idea it got that warm over by the river. We were held to the low 30s by the snow. I picked up 0.9" of snow, about what was expected and a nice hors d'oeuvres ahead of the bigger snow this week.

FWIW, the 18z parallel GFS just shifted back eastward(now veers east of Iowa), the first run of any model that has done that.

All the models are occluding/shearing the low at some point, but differ on when. The opGFS does it before reaching Iowa, the Euro after.

It's not often we see a winter low track from the nw gulf to Quincy.

Euro showing a lot of icing north of the low.

Except the potential problem with wave 2, even over here, is the warm air aloft.

The UK is now showing a big nw shift with wave 2. The UK continues to be farther south with the first wave as well, so here's the total.

Parallel GFS is a bit farther west than the op GFS and pulls warm air aloft back into Iowa.

The west trend with the second wave continues unabated. The 06z Euro and parallel GFS are even west of me now.

This thing is going to change so much over the next few days. My area could easily get 10 inches or nothing.

The Euro has now joined the other models, showing the northern wave clearing out and leaving the southern wave behind. The southern wave then cuts north and wraps up.

We continue to see significant changes from run to run with the southern energy. The trend is certainly to slow it and dig it farther south.

The initial wave of snow appears to be aimed at northern Iowa, with just a bit here followed by mix and rain.

The models are certainly seeing the possibility of a robust southern wave cutting north somewhere.

Eastern Ohio Valley again?

This Euro run has secondary wave development, but it doesn't really wrap up until it's exiting into Canada.

Hmm.... just a bit of a difference. The UK is fast with the northern wave and pretty much just sweeps it through the region with no big low. The Euro dives a northern bowling ball south into the trough and wraps up a big storm (takes a northern track). UK

The front-end snow is vanishing for southeast Iowa and points east.

Another November track in late December.

The non-derecho weather I remember this year is... - Large hail hit far northern Cedar Rapids in April. I got some pea-nickel size hail. - Cristobal remnants tracked through eastern Iowa, something that rarely happens. - Long dry stretches through summer. Western and southern Iowa experienced severe drought. - Second straight October with a significant snow event. This year it was way back on October 19th. August 10th derecho... Obviously, the derecho is the big story this year. I was without power for ten days and without cable tv/internet for another week beyond that. With the leaves gone now, the tree damage really stands out. Most private land is cleaned up, but some hard-hit wooded areas around town are still a big mess of downed and shredded trees. A destroyed house near me was finally bulldozed a couple weeks ago. The destroyed apartment building farther sw hasn't been touched. Next year we'll have to get some roof shingles redone, plus I have to plant a new tree and rebuild half of the fence. I talked to the fence company a couple months ago and they said they had 5000 build/repair jobs to do. This was my backyard after the storm.

Hard cutter lifts rain up through Lake Superior.

We hit 53º before the front came through in the last hour. The Quad Cities area is 60º.

There is certainly potential at the end of the month. Something like today's Euro would be just fine.

Hey Ocean, greetings from your old home in the DVN area. Well-known long-time met here, Terry Swails, temporarily moved to Portland this year so he could experience Maine nor'easters. He is really loving today's snowfall.