hawkeye_wx

Convection is finally starting to fire again near the center.

A couple days ago this was expected to be sheared and weaken on approach to the gulf coast. Now the models are in the 960s to 970s.

Dropsonde: 982 mb (985 mb with 36 kt wind). That's another 3 mb down from the last pass.

986 mb (dropsonde says 988 with 22 kt wind) is pretty good considering it spent the morning with a naked center.

Another 0.5" of snow fell here this morning, our third snow event this month. I've received nearly a foot of snow over the last two Octobers.

NHC quote --- With the recent improvement in the outflow over Zeta, it appears that the shear that had prevented strengthening has abated. The shear ahead of the storm is expected to remain low while the cyclone traverses the deep, warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As a result, Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane this morning, and continued strengthening is likely until Zeta moves over the Yucatan peninsula this evening. --- Since that bullish update, Zeta has become decoupled. The naked surface vortex has moved out from under the convection.

It appears the convection has been pushed off to the southeast of the center again.

997 mb now. This system could have a good night if it can fire some deep convection and keep the surface center under it.

The convection really likes the area well south of the center. It has been stuck there for two days.

The surface center can now be seen to the sw of Grand Cayman, where some new convection is bubbling up.

This system's convection keeps shifting south. The broad, weak low center still appears to be north of the convection.

The morning visible loop suggests there is a surface circulation centered near Grand Cayman.

I picked up another 1.58" of rain overnight, boosting my 2-day total to 2.97". The next week looks cold. The late weekend system doesn't look like a big deal for eastern Iowa. Much of the energy/moisture should remain farther west.

The warm front got stuck over southeast Iowa, so Cedar Rapids failed to get out of the 50s.

A band of good cells trained through Cedar Rapids overnight and dropped 1.35" of rain in my yard. It's nice to hear heavy rain and thunder again. Another inch could fall later as the cold front fires up.

New pass still at 953 mb.

952 mb per dropsonde.

As impressive as this is, it is also positioned inside of a big upper trough.

Wow, I didn't even realize another recon was right there, on the way into the eye.

I think this thing is going for cat 4... very impressive.

It appears Epsilon continues to strengthen. A ring of deep convection has filled in around an increasingly-circular-and-smooth eye.

The new recon pass dropsonde suggests either 954 or 956 mb, so it continues to drop. This has been an amazing process to watch.... upper low -> warm core -> nearly major hurricane.

We are now expecting thunderstorms Wednesday and 70s Thursday... quite a week.

I think the 9" report location near the Des Moines NWS office also received 1.5" yesterday, so that's >10" in two days in mid October. Now, watch the same location get <10" total from tomorrow through the end of January.

I finished with 4.4 inches from 0.27" liquid. It's turning into wet slop now.