hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Latest recon pass... in northeast quad, only 98 kt flight level wind, 67 kt SFMR. This has really come down.
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Pressure is up to about 970 mb.
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The larger eyewall is mostly there. It's just broken on the n/ne side.
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About 2 mb per hour, so that's quite fast for a 24-hr period. I think Wilma dropped something like 10 mb in two hours at one point.
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The plane flew back south of the storm, so they'll make another pass.
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One hour from cat 3 to cat 4..... must be a record.
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954 mb per the dropsonde.
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There's a 118 kt and 132 kt flight level wind on that pass.
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Recon has turned around and is going in for one final pass before leaving.
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955 mb from the dropsonde.
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Yep, 102 kt unflagged.
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82 kt SFMR this pass 968 or 969 mb from the latest dropsonde Despite the continued deepening, Grand Cayman radar still does not show a great eye presentation, and satellite shows a lack of outflow to the east and south.
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Interesting comment from recon... POORLY DEFINED EYE W/RAGGED BANDS ON S SIDE, OPEN N. WEAK RADAR SIGNATURE ~5 MI NE OF FIX (ONLY 2 MI WIDE) INDICATED NEW PSBL LLC DEVELOPING, BUT FL WINDS DID NOT YET SUPPORT THIS FEATURE. I've noticed the eye presentation on radar has degraded, despite the rapid deepening.
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974 mb, continues to rapidly deepen. How can it not, considering the ball of very intense convection parked over the center. Oddly, this plane's extrap pressure data is higher than the actual pressure. It's usually the opposite.
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The latest recon plane just made its first pass through the center, but a new recon plane is already on the way, so there should be a plane in there all night to give us the latest data.
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New recon dropsonde measured about 977 mb, accounting for the wind.
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Does anyone remember the last time we had a tropical cyclone, at a similar stage as Delta, entering the nw Caribbean with a couple days of prime strengthening ahead of it? It really doesn't happen often. Usually, systems are just organizing in that area.
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Hmm... Tropical Tidbits had an older recon dropsonde report listed. The new pressure is 980 mb if you account for a 17 kt wind.
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Still 984 mb. It should be lower next pass if the convection continues to fire.
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984 mb, wow! I was not expecting that. Frankly, the core convection is a bit meager. The color IR presentation isn't great. However, the visible loop shows it has nice organization. It could take off tonight if it can fire more widespread deep convection over/around the center.
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Nice... that pressure is well below what I thought they'd find.
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The 12z HWRF also continues to show only modest strengthening while Delta is in the Caribbean. One would think it could ramp back up in future runs.
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Morning models disagree about shear/weakening in the northern gulf. The GFS and UK show little if any weakening. The HWRF and Euro show rapid weakening.
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Oddly, the HWRF and HMON have gone much weaker again the last two runs.
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18z HWRF and HMON are still showing rapid deepening in the nw Caribbean. The HWRF drops it from 993 mb to 949 mb in 21 hours, beginning late Monday evening.
