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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    This is a difficult forecast for my area as well. Models are trending nw a bit with the snow/sleet line this evening and overnight. Frankly, it's looking like Cedar Rapids may end up with a bunch of sleet, which sucks. Regarding wave #2, while the globals have trended southeast, the CAMs continue to insist on a farther nw track of the deformation zone, right through Iowa. My guess is I will get very little snow tonight and maybe 2-3" tomorrow.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    Jeez, models.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    Southeast and weak with wave 2, yes, but also juiced and nw with wave 1. It actually has Cedar Rapids/Iowa City getting nothing as the waves split the area.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS has finally juiced up wave #1, joining the other models.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Cedar Rapids has hit 57º this afternoon.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    The HRRR is also robust with wave #1. Some models have certainly been showing a brief shot of snow (1-3") in part of Iowa, but this several-inches thing is new, so I'm not sure how much to believe it.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    Woulda been nice to get a solid consensus this morning instead of more spread.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, I forgot about the first wave. That's a bit of a mystery, though. A couple models have nothing here from the first wave while the Canadian and Euro show a decent slug of precip passing through.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    12z Canadian and UK are both southeast and faster/weaker. Both models have removed anything significant for Iowa. My area is still on the nw edge of the snow on the GFS. For us, it's down to the Euro and NAM.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    We are about 35º warmer than at the same time yesterday morning.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    I did not realize until now that our temp Saturday will be that low. Dry snow and strong wind will make it tough to measure.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro
  13. hawkeye_wx
    00z UK only moved nw a little. The second wave is still mostly a MO/IL/seWI event. Far e/se IA gets clipped with a few inches. This is yet another model that has mostly lost the first-wave precip in Iowa.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    The most amazing thing about this? Models actually show snow falling during daylight on Saturday when I can see it. I didn't think that was possible.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    Much more robust presentation.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    Significant improvement in the 500 mb flow structure from the 00z GFS.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    The H5 low is still well northwest of the other models... near Burlington, IA.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    There is still a pretty decent difference between the 12z and 00z.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    This is exactly the kind of trend we need in Iowa. Get that northern wave outa here, slow the southern wave. Still, it's just the 18z NAM 72 hours out. It's likely overdone.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    Haha.... euro just went against the other models and shifted back nw.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    The 3k NAM doesn't even have a first wave for Iowa.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    Models are gradually moving away from a significant storm for Iowa. The ICON had been very robust for eastern Iowa, but now it's just a brief whitening late Friday and then nothing. The timing of the waves is becoming less favorable.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    Small changes in the speed of the northern and southern waves will have a significant impact on this area.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    UK is southeast a bit tonight, removing all snow from Iowa from the main wave, but still amps up nicely and lays a swath of heavy snow through Chicago.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    GFS & Euro not on the same page, particularly for Iowa/Wisconsin. The GFS is faster with the southern energy and remains more connected to the northern energy racing across Canada, so the system gets tilted positive and is yanked more eastward. The 12z Euro was slower with the southern energy and the two streams remain more detached, allowing the southern wave to cut to the lakes as the northern energy gets out of the way.
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