We've had a mix of sleety-snow and snow for the last hour, but it's changing to snow... about on schedule. The question for us has always been how robust will the precip shield be? Given the current look on radar, I don't think the higher totals some models have been spitting out will happen.
Both NAMs and both GFSs are going nuts around here with a very intense snow band dropping several inches. Other models are in the 3-4" range. Meanwhile, the NWS forecast has 1-3".
The 00z NAMs have suddenly thrown a 5-8" band over eastern Iowa, but the 00z HRRR has nothing like that. The HRRR is more in line with other models showing a few inches around here.
Tonight's Euro with a nice surprise for northern Illinois. It's very similar to other models with its shifting of the energy southward, but while other models have more snow focused on Iowa, the Euro is east.
The January temp departure graphic is deceptive. If I saw that before the month began I'd probably think it would be a lousy month. Instead, it was my second snowiest January over the last fourteen years, with consistent snow cover for the entire month.
An intense band this morning has my total up to 5.9". This morning's snow is high-ratio stuff. This is way beyond what I expected. We have a shot at 7".
I'm up to 3.1" thanks to a real nice band that has parked over Cedar Rapids for a few hours. While hlcater has been screwed down in Iowa City, up in Cedar Rapids we've done about as well as we could have.
How's this for a pattern? Big storm or not, tonight's GFS and Euro are bringing some very cold air down into the CONUS around this period, with high temps below zero across the midwest.
00z Euro next weekend