hawkeye_wx
-
Posts
6,320 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
-
Dropsonde says 996 mb with 31 kt wind, so ~993 mb.
-
The deep convection is still firing well southeast of the center. Recon just fixed the center near 31.5N 74W, at the nw edge of the cirrus canopy.
-
One final recon plane is now en route.
-
The 12z HWRF never drops Henri below the 980s. A few to several runs ago it was taking it down to the 960s, 950s, or even 940s. It was never going to drop that low, but the HWRF is oddly now among the weakest models. -
980 mb, should be final recon pass for now. I'm not sure they'll even send another plane down there given how close it is to landfall.
-
Grace is beginning to encircle the center with convection.
-
Per recon, definitely a hurricane again... 983 mb 92 kts flight level wind
-
A couple things I noticed on today's models... First, the UK initializes Henri too strong (low to mid 980s). Second, while the Euro initializes it pretty well, it then weakens it as it heads north. That is odd considering the rest of the models strengthen it during the same period.
-
So far, today, every attempt to fire core convection has poofed out rather quickly. Dry air appears to be a problem.
-
The latest GFS does bend Henri back into the NYC area, but during its last day over water it is rapidly weakening.
-
The intense blowup of convection over the center quickly knocked the pressure down several mb first thing this morning, but the core convection has waned since then and the pressure has plateaued. The overall organization continues to improve, though. At some point today or tonight we should see more intense convection fire over the center again.
-
Grace had been gradually building the east side all night, but this morning it has finally been able to pull that deep convection over the center. It'll be interesting to see what it can do before it reaches Cancun/Cozumel.
-
It appears the models have unanimously gone to the southern route for Grace... a date with the Yucatan and then deep in mainland Mexico. So far, Grace has refused to gain latitude. It could even sneak mostly south of Hispaniola.
-
New dropsonde data suggests 999 mb at the center. However, over the last hour the surface center and convection have become detached. The surface center appears to have drifted westward and is now totally exposed.
-
The 12z HWRF and HMON both take Grace across the heart of Hispaniola, where it meets the same fate as Fred.
-
Cells are trying to pop along the front over here, but the cap is too strong.
-
2-3" of rain fell just north of Cedar Rapids this afternoon. I've received 0.98" over the last six weeks.
-
Totally screwed again here. All the heavy storms north of me held together and dumped widespread 1-3". The strong cell west of Cedar Rapids vanished. A brief downpour dropped 0.15" in my gauge, once again only enough to wet the surface.
-
This weekend into next week some tropical action is expected to curve from Florida up through the eastern US. As usual, that means a long stretch of dry weather around here.
-
I did not realize the HRRR was crashing the dewpoint this afternoon. I wonder why it would do that.
-
-
Another moderately-promising system passes by with little to no rain in Cedar Rapids. My combined July/August rain total is only 0.82". With only a couple exceptions in June, this entire warm season has sucked... right at the top of the "most boring spring/summer ever" list.
-
Everything for the last several weeks has skipped over Cedar Rapids. Every widespread-looking event, every "active pattern" has failed to produce. We have one more chance of rain late tonight as the upper low moves across northeast Iowa. There is also a chance Tuesday, but then it looks like another long dry period will follow.
-
0.19" here this morning. Models had been a bit more bullish about tonight, but no longer. Sunday should bring more widespread, heavier rain to the region.
-
I am currently receiving my first rain in over three weeks. It likely won't add up to much, but it's nice to get something.
