We were not expected to hit 40º this week, but we've now done it three straight days. The snow cover is gone, briefly, as soon as you head southwest from Cedar Rapids. I still have a couple inches in my yard.
Now that the Euro has nudged back east this morning, I'm solidly within the 3-6" area on nearly all models. It's still a sharp edge, though, so any west or east nudge matters.
The 21z RAP has rain in western Iowa where every other model has 8" of snow. I wish it was correct, but it's garbage. The HRRR and RAP will correct southwestward tomorrow.
This morning's trend is not my friend. Models have resumed the drying of the east edge. The Euro is down to 2-3" and the UK 1-2". Others are a bit better, but trending down. It's a bizarre track. When it initially blows up in North Dakota it looks great for a southeast track right through my area, but then it suddenly drops south. Oh well, can't win 'em all. Hopefully we can all cash in in February.
The 00z Euro expanded the snow back eastward a bit over here, boosting my snow total back up to 4-5". This could go either way. A bit more west and I could end up with 2". A bit more east and I could get 6+". Tonight's models are all very similar. Cedar Rapids has managed to sneak just inside the good snow during the first two events (Dec 28, Jan 1). Let's go for the hat trick.
The models are all continuing to trend west tonight. The GFS, GDPS (Canadian), and UK all have the highest totals in central, or even western, Iowa.
Update: Yikes, the latest Euro moves the heavy snow to western Iowa.
00z Euro is still sw of the other models... really dives the energy south.
It had looked like there would be nothing of interest for many of us for another 10-14 days. Now all models are suddenly on board a solid snow for some of us in only five days.
Cedar Rapids had an afternoon high of -3º (the official high was 0º at midnight). Tonight the forecast is a low of -15º, but it wouldn't surprise me if the airport fell a bit lower.
For years my Ariens snowblower blew snow poorly. When it encountered deeper or dense snow the flow out the chute would quickly collapse. The last couple years it was bad and incredibly frustrating. It took forever to clear my driveway and my neighbor's. Recently I found some YouTube videos showing how adjusting the idler pulley tightens the auger/impeller belt and leads to better blowing power. The day before the New Year's Day storm I made a simple 1/4" inward adjustment to the pulley, which snugged the belt nicely. It totally solved the problem! The blower instantly went from shit to better than it was when purchased fourteen years ago. The flow out the chute remained strong no matter how much snow was being fed into the auger. Even the dense plow snow at the end of the driveway was cleared with ease. Now, instead of dreading having to clear deep or wet snow, I know it will be easy. It's a game-changer. I sure wish I had made the simple fix years ago.
The Cedar Rapids airport officially hit -12º this morning, but here in town only -3º. Most stations in the area were several degrees higher than the CR airport.
I measured an average of 5.6" on my snow boards. I thought we were done, but another good band is moving through now so my total will go up a bit. There is a 6.5" report from Marion (ne edge of Cedar Rapids) and a 7" report from the ne side of CR.
This snow is mountain powder over here because the column was so cold. I have 12+" drifts that can be lifted with a shovel like a pile of feathers.
The temp here is 9º, so the snow is light as a feather. While there are big drifts on my driveway, the snow in the fence-enclosed backyard is surprisingly uniform and easy to measure.