hawkeye_wx

My final measurement is 11.0", so I've still never measured a foot. Without the blowing and drifting later in the storm, I probably would have. All the spotters in and around Cedar Rapids who are reporting 12-15" must have more favorable locations to measure. Even with a 2-stage blower, cleaning this stuff was a long workout. It's the most wet snow I've ever received. Models really blew it when they shifted the heaviest snow band southeast yesterday.

I'm up to 10.5". Everything is plastered with snow, including the sides of the house. Models show we have another 2.5 hours to go, but it's beginning to taper off. It's pretty awesome to have a solid defo zone parked over us all day. That is rare.

This is the part of big storms I hate. Now that we are into the blowing and drifting, all the spotters in my area surge well ahead of my total. Reports of 11-12.5" are now coming in across Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, but somehow I've only managed to accumulate 1" on my board over the last 2.5 hours, despite the fact it has been ripping the entire time. Snow gets blown off my board, so my accumulation rate slows to a crawl. I am officially only at 9.7". Reality is probably closer to 11". This is why I always fall short of 12" in big storms.

As we approach 10 inches, the general condition is much worse than this morning. This morning the flakes were big and they were not blowing much. Now the flakes are small and a bit drier and the wind is howling. Snow is whipping off roofs and visibility is low.

12z EPS... stronger and nw of 00z.

My photo doesn't show how hard it is snowing. I received 1.3" in the last hour, now up to 8.6". The snow has dried a bit and the wind is really gusting, so it is much nastier than just an hour ago.

I'm at 7.3 inches. Heavy bands are expanding over me, so we have a real shot at 10 inches. It's a beautiful snow, too. Wet, but fluffy.

Up to about 6 inches here. The snow is wet, but not slop. It's perfect for piling up without blowing around.

My total this morning is 4.8". The ratio is 8.7 to 1.

I'm at 3.1". The next several hours should be mostly lighter snow, so I'm hitting the sack. The heavier deformation snow arrives early in the morning.

Models are pretty close at this point. This is looking bigger to the east of Iowa, but models have some solid snow hanging back into my area. Combined with the wind and cold, on top of the current storm's snow, it should be fun.

GFS has sagged the heavy band down into the city.

I already have 2.1 inches on my snow boards after only 2.5 hours of snow.

Interestingly, the 00z NAMs expanded the heavier totals back to Cedar Rapids. That seems to be an outlier, though. I'm still going in expecting 6-8", with anything more a nice bonus. We must be near 1" already. It has been snowing pretty good for 90 minutes and there is no grass showing.

We reached 34º or 35º this afternoon, but once the snow began this evening it stuck to the pavement immediately. There is not a single wet spot anywhere. Perhaps the strengthening wind helped cool the pavement. Guidance continues to sag southeast. Fortunately, even though we won't get the heaviest snow, models still show my area solidly within the decent defo zone through the day tomorrow.

The HRRR continues to sag southeast.

Models' Kuchera graphics are showing awful ratios, about 7 to 1 throughout the heavy band. DVN, on the other hand, is predicting ratios above 10 to 1. DVN has upped my area even more to 11-16". I was thinking the earlier 6-11" seemed a bit high at the top end. If Kuchera is correct, we will only get 6-9". We will need the higher ratios for DVN's forecast to verify.

FWIW, here's the 10:1 EPS mean... pretty juiced

The Euro's energy is too spread out and messy, can't easily wrap up into a powerful storm until it reaches the eastern lakes.

The models are focusing the heaviest band through southeast Iowa and the Quad Cities. They are all showing high rates through Cyclone Tuesday morning. 3-hr qpf between 12z and 15z

6-8" seems like reasonable prediction for Cedar Rapids. I'm still not buying the higher end (9-12") of the NWS/locals range.

12z UK is back to a big hit farther northwest, like the ICON and GDPS. So far this morning the GFS is on its own with a southeast slider.

The GFS is sliding the entire trough farther east, so the big storm can't cut until farther east. This morning's ICON and GDPS hold the trough farther west, so the storm cuts to Chicago.

I would strongly lean toward the 7" for most. I'm surprised they put 12" as a possible high end of the range. They currently have 6-11 for Cedar Rapids. I think 5-8 is more realistic.