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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    The HAFS models are both now much weaker over the eastern gulf, likely mostly due to Helene being de-cored over the Yucatan. A few hours over land is not a big deal, but twelve certainly is.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    The 12z GFS shows several little pieces of vorticity pinwheeling around each other for the next couple days, which keeps Helene weak. It may be too weak.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    The visible loop shows the surface circulation is becoming better defined. The center is right on the west edge of the convection. The recon extrap pressure is now creeping under 1000 mb.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    The 06z Euro actually moves the center over the northeast tip of the Yucatan, where it only slowly moves for about 12 hours. Also, while the hurricane models insist on bombing it out over the eastern gulf, the Euro barely strengthens it at all.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    The latest hurricane models are still bombing this thing over the loop current. What I don't understand is why these models continue to try to strengthen it so much today. I get that there is a disconnect when the system does not yet have a well-organized center, but why do these models seemingly not see the current shear?
  6. hawkeye_wx
    I don't see much organization tonight. A blast of sw shear is preventing mid-level and surface alignment.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    We have landfall. All the way up to landfall, the NHC never had John's forecast correct. It started as a TS tracking east, then transitioned to a cane moving northeast, then a major cane moving north. It ended up moving northwest.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    All of the hurricane models are much weaker at 18z because it takes a lot longer to organize. The HAFS-B is 90 mb weaker at 12z Thursday (888 mb to 978). The southerly shear in the nw Caribbean isn't going to help it organize.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    The three recon passes found extrap pressure of 1008, 1006, and 1005 mb, so it's slowly dropping as the circulation develops.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    All of the very-intense hurricane models have this system well-organized and deepening to 990 mb by 12z Tuesday. I'd say that is pretty unlikely.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, this isn't something we see every day. It's likely wildly overdone, but it's neat to look at.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    The weak center of surface spin is currently located ssw of Grand Cayman, northwest of the convection.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    It is likely the very intense hurricane models are organizing the system too quickly in the nw Caribbean. They are predicting a rapidly-strengthening hurricane before it even reaches the gulf. The Euro, on the other hand, has further-delayed the organization over the last two runs. It now has the system only slowly pulling the energy together over the next two days and reaching tropical storm status, 30+ mb weaker than the overzealous hurricane models at the Yucatan Channel.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    The big weekend rain event was a massive bust for much of Iowa. I got 0.09". The airport got 0.00". It will likely be the driest September on record.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    It's too hot and dry. Cedar Rapids hit 91º today, with full sun and no wind. Like Cyclone, we got no rain last night. The Sunday wave is fading on the models, so late Saturday is going to have to deliver.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    Based on the new recon data from the east/southeast side, 90 mph may be generous.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    The final recon pass tonight found ~977 mb with a dropsonde.
  18. hawkeye_wx
  19. hawkeye_wx
    38º in Davenport this morning.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    This wave is fading on models, at least until it reaches the western Caribbean.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    We really needed rain. After nearly 9 inches in July, we had only received an inch in August. Fortunately, Cedar Rapids hit the jackpot overnight. Storms trained over the area for a few hours. I picked up 2.41". Radar suggests 3+" fell on the east side of the city.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    It is currently 94/81/115 here in Cedar Rapids. The NWS has had 98º for our high for a few days, but they are always too hot on the hottest days. It's extremely rare for CR to reach the upper 90s. Frankly, while I'm very glad to have air conditioning, I actually get cold inside so I go outside once in a while. This oppressive heat feels great for a few minutes at a time.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    This summer has not been hot at all. June had seven 90º days, July had two, and August has had zero, with none in sight. The summer high temp was 93º back in mid June.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    I was able to get almost an inch of rain overnight into this morning. It was well-timed because the first two weeks of August were very dry and the next week or two looks dry as well.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    The storm has broadened, so the core is lagging a bit. Recon is finding only tropical storm wind on the west side, and even within the core on the right side. Hurricane-force wind is displaced well east of the center.
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