Rtd208

Closed the shades today, boy its dark in here.

Your going to be a whole lot more desperate come March 1st.

Enjoy the dud winter its the only winter you got- TWC

Translation: Better luck next winter

Current temp is 6 here.

Current temp is 6 here.

Current temp is 6 here.

Current temp is 6 here.

Current temp is down to 14 here. Still very windy.

Current temp is down to 14 here. Still very windy.

Rain has changed to snow here. Current temp 36 and falling.

Rain has changed to snow here. Current temp 36 and falling.

Picked up 1.06" of rain so far today. Storm total 1.45" Current temp 56

Picked up 1.06" of rain so far today. Storm total 1.45" Current temp 56

Picked up 0.39" of rain for the day. Current temp 54

Picked up 0.39" of rain for the day. Current temp 54

Pretty good discussion from Mt. Holly and Upton ref: tomorrow and Friday. Mt.Holly: .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... ...Impactful storm expected for Thursday through Friday... Overall, there were no major changes made to the forecast with this update cycle. Our forecast models are in good agreement that low pressure will rapidly intensify will moving northward through the midwestern States and then on to the lower Great Lakes by early Friday...finally reaching Quebec by Friday evening while continuing to rapidly deepening. This will occur in response to a very strong upper level jet and associated PV anomaly rounding the base of a long wave trough causing the system to eventually take on a negative tilt. This is indicative of a very powerful system with lots of energy. Impacts across the area will be significant and include heavy rain with possible flooding in places, very strong winds potentially leading to power outages and wind damage, coastal flooding, some wintry precip (mainly north/west of I-95) both at the onset and ending of the system, and the potential for a flash freeze Friday due to rapidly dropping temperatures behind the system`s strong cold front. Getting into the details, a cold surface high pressure centered over Maine/Nova Scotia early Thursday will shift eastward as the deepening low begins to approach. Expect precipitation to begin Thursday beginning around the mid/late morning in our western zones and reaching our eastern zones over NE PA and NW NJ by afternoon. Some mix of snow/rain/freezing rain is still briefly possible at onset across the Lehigh Valley and Poconos as the surface high provides antecedent cold air at the surface, but overall impacts from any snow or ice are not expected to be significant. The cold air may hang on in the Poconos for just a bit longer, but by the afternoon, expect the precipitation type areawide to be all rain. Precipitation will pick up in intensity across the area late day Thursday through Thursday night when periods of heavy rain are likely. This will occur as the low consolidates by Friday morning near southern ontario. Ahead of it, the system`s warm front will move through Thursday night accompanied by a surging low-level jet and potent upper trough. Precipitable water values are progged to be near or just above 1 inch at this time which is >90th percentile for the day. The overnight Thursday-Friday morning period could see some heavier rain rates and potential for flooding concerns with Flood Watches now in effect. For Friday, a very strong cold front will be centered to our west to start the day as it will be oriented north/south near central PA. This front looks to then move eastward across the area...crossing our western zones around mid/late morning, the Greater Philadelphia area around midday, and clearing the coast by around 2 PM or so. Periods of rain will continue ahead of it and along the front, we could have the possibility for a gusty low-topped line of showers as well as a few rumbles of thunder with some limited instability progged. Expect that southerly winds will be gusting upwards of 40 to 50 mph but within this line right along the front, winds could locally gust 50 to 60 mph. With regard to rainfall, we are still expecting widespread rain totals of 1-2+ inches with up to 3 inches or so possible in our northern zones over NE PA and NW NJ (roughly near and north of the I-78 corridor. This will lead to at least some potential for flooding which is discussed further in the hydro section below. Behind the cold front, dry air will build in and likely put an end to the precipitation rather quickly. With that said, deterministic guidance is favoring a quick burst of snow on the backside, especially across the higher elevations. Confidence is not very high in terms of coverage, and where snow does occur, accumulations look to be just a couple tenths of an inch and impacts directly related to snow are expected to remain limited. The main story behind the front will be temperatures plummeting quickly through midday/Friday afternoon and this will lead to a quick re- freezing of wet surfaces potentially causing very icy conditions and dangerous travel. Regarding winds, advisory-criteria (gusts 46+ mph) are likely for most of the area on Friday. Another surge of the aforementioned low level jet will likely occur on Friday as the main area of low pressure and upper trough pass through. The isallobaric wind component associated with both the rapid pressure decrease ahead of, as well as increase behind, the front will likely produce the strongest wind gusts on either side of the frontal passage Friday afternoon (southerly winds ahead of the front, shifting to westerly behind it). The combination of a prolonged period of higher wind gusts with a freshly saturated ground may result in favorable conditions for downed trees/power outages. Friday night through Saturday, the low will pull away as it moves northward through southern Quebec but blustery conditions will continue in its wake. The strongest of the winds will be abating by the overnight Friday / Saturday period but by this time the main story will be the bitter cold temperatures and wind chills. Expect subzero wind chills by Saturday morning with values in the -10s over the southern Poconos. It won`t get much better for Saturday as remains gusty with highs mainly just in the teens to low 20s. This will mean that even during the warmest part of the day wind chills will remain subzero north, and in the single digits south...quite cold for this area! && Upton: .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday will start off dry with high pressure to the northeast and two areas of low pressure approaching, one along the southeast coast and the other over the Midwest. These surface features will eventually merge into a complex frontal system late Thursday night into Friday with a deep negatively tilted upper trough and the parent low tracking through the Great Lakes. Overrunning precipitation will begin to move into western portions of the region as early as late Thursday morning, becoming likely area wide by afternoon. With temperatures rising through the day, expecting plain rain across the entire area. The exception to this would be if precipitation begins earlier some typically cooler locations across northeastern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley could briefly start as a period of snow or rain/snow mix. Rainfall will increase in intensity Thursday night as precipitable water values approach 1 inch and the low level jet strengthens, becoming moderate to locally heavy at times. The overall flood threat still appears to be low, but can`t rule out some urban issues or minor flooding of flashier streams. See the hydrology section below for more details. Winds will also increase Thursday night, especially along the coast, as a 55-65 kt low level jet traverses the area. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Connecticut, Long Island, New York City, and portions of northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley beginning at 10pm Thursday with gusts of 45-55 mph expected, highest along the immediate coastline and farther east. There could be a brief break in the rain or at least a decrease in intensity Friday morning before intensity increases again with the cold frontal passage. The latest guidance maintains the earlier timing of the frontal passage, with the front entering the CWA around 10am, pushing just east of NYC around 1pm, and then offshore by around 5pm. Continued to include a slight chance of thunder Friday morning/early afternoon with the frontal passage, although the greater threat is probably for any more convective elements to mix down stronger winds. This threat appears to be rather brief in duration, but can`t completely rule out a few gusts to 60 mph associated with the frontal passage. After early highs in the low to mid 50s ahead of the front, strong cold air advection behind the front will result in a rapid drop in temperatures during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will likely be below freezing for NYC and points west by 4-5pm and much of the rest of the area by 7-8pm. As temperatures drop, any lingering water would quickly freeze, especially on elevated surfaces. Also, while the bulk of the precipitation should be over by the time temperatures fall below freezing, can`t completely rule out a few snow showers in the cyclonic flow, primarily north and west of NYC. This potential will continue to be refined over the next 24-36 hours as high resolution model data becomes available. Cold and dry conditions are then expected overnight Friday. Lows will fall into the single digits across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and into the mid teens elsewhere. With gusty northwest flow continuing behind the front, this will result in wind chills around or just below zero Friday night.

Blow up dolls and hot dogs would be my guess.

The guy looks like an accountant. Maybe I will ask him to do my taxes.

Until I see at least two other forecast models do the same thing its nothing but clickbait or pure BS.

He obviously doesn't know how to use the multi quote feature.

Picked up 0.86" of rain for the day yesterday. Storm total 1.86"

Picked up 0.86" of rain for the day yesterday. Storm total 1.86"

Picked up 1.00" of rain yesterday. 0.47" so far today. Storm total 1.47"