andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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Moisture killed by cutoff low over the SE, next.
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This is partially a meme at this point, but the survey was very questionable to say the least. There were a large number of damage indicators ignored. Additionally, there were a couple of houses that are listed in DAT that qualified as EF5 candidates – but were not given such ratings due to some pretty impressive nitpicking – to the point of John Robinson (WCM of NWS Little Rock at the time) saying that some on the committee developing the EF-scale essentially didn't want houses being rated EF5.
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It was an EF5. That is all.
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Columbia MO supercell is looking volatile.
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Got a couple of cells going up SE of Kansas City. Lead shortwave appears to be impinging on the warm sector.
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Huge 10% hatched in the latest D2 for Wednesday, including some seriously large population centers. Chicago and east could get very interesting from early on Wednesday.
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New CSU has a 30% hatched tornado area (high risk equivalent) for the IA/IL/MO triple point region tomorrow. Large 60% hatched hail and 45% hatched wind to accompany it centered on the same area.
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NSSL WRF also with a monstrous cell tracking from NE MO into W IL in the afternoon. Environment around it is stupidly high end. Edit: ARW too.
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Re: mixing tomorrow and resultant high LFCs and LCLs on the HRRR.
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Remains a strong convective signal on the Euro roughly encompassing the current D2 MDT zone, in a highly favorable parameter space.
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HRRR has problems with LCL heights early in MO, highlighting the concern with mixing (although it tends to be too aggressive with that).
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Think this one is off timed for the Chicago area. Biggest threat is west on Tuesday, east on Wednesday.
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That is classic for a significant Great Lakes severe event. Timing/destabilization pending of course.
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Wednesday has potential to be significant in the Lakes if there’s enough destabilization, 500 mb setup is consistent with some of the bigger early season events in the area.
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2 additional fatalities in Owen Co. IN.
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One limiting factor with this may be mixing if we get near the progged high temperatures from some of the models. LCL heights would be an issue.
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
andyhb replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Reports out of Sussex Co. DE are not good.- 2,785 replies
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- 3
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- severe
- thunderstorms
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Amazingly high probabilities of STP ≥ 5 over a large area for Tuesday 81 hours out from the 15z SREF. Never seen anything like that at this range.
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Strong tornado passing very close to the DOX radar right now.
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HRRR is trying for Mullica Hill part II. Parameter space around that modeled cell is impressive if it does go.
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That's at 03z and also I have strong doubt that it is going to be 66 degrees at that time given the magnitude of WAA with this trough. NAM tends to be cold biased.
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Sullivan IN tornado prelim EF3, 155 mph per IND.
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The CSU MLP for Tuesday is absolutely maxed out. Two 60+% areas across AR and closer to the low in MO/IA/IL. First time I’ve seen that.
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At least 7 dead in McNairy Co. TN from the long tracked tornado last night (the one Fred Gossage was covering). At least 3 dead in Robinson IL and 3 dead in Sullivan IN. 4 dead in Wynne AR.
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This video is incredible. Deserves more exposure.
