andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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Carriacou and Union Island are getting absolutely smashed right now. For reference, this is perhaps the most powerful hurricane to ever affect this portion of the Windward Islands. The catastrophic 1780 hurricane was likely more intense, but it passed further north with a direct hit on Barbados. Only Ivan and (less so) Janet are comparisons in the modern era. Utterly insane for this to be happening on July 1st. -
That’s a Cat 4, FL winds of 126 kts and a less suspect SFMR of 124 kts. Easily should be enough to push it to 115 kts. Unprecedented.
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Microwave passes continue to steadily improve. Nearly a closed eyewall now.
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Thank you, good lord.
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New SHIPS run continues with amazingly high probabilities of RI for this region this early in the season, especially the 65 kt/72 hour threshold. Can't be stressed enough that this part of the Atlantic and Caribbean is usually where TCs go to die this early in the year.
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Sunday looks potentially impressive.
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This cane season is really going to go to hell in a hand-basket, isn't it...
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Also that very intense (unwarned for a time, yikes) tornado near Whitman Nebraska. That supercell in N OK was massive, good local chase.
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Ryan has the best seat in the house.
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Pretty great structure on the cell coming into Hartford too.
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Tornado warning for Hartford.
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They don't make them like this very often in these parts.
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Look out for that cell coming into the Hartford metro. Rapidly strengthening.
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Wonder if that cell gets a boost as it comes down into the Merrimack Valley, which would not be ideal for Manchester.
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That's a dangerous, higher end wind profile at GYX with supercells to the west.
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That Keene storm is really going off.
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Cell in SW NH near Keene also looks decent.
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Supercell near Poughkeepsie NY is worth keeping an eye on. A lot more isolated.
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Lapse rates aside (and actually in this particular sounding they aren't that bad), this is impressive.
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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
andyhb replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
That tornado near Marshall WI is nasty. -
See the problem with saying this all is that this is the highest tornado probs issued for this area of the country in quite some time. Given the lack of an EML which is a nearly universal indicator for higher end severe vs. run of the mill severe in this part of the country, I'm wondering why this was upped to a 10% so soon, tbh.
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I still don't like reading "weak mid level lapse rates" for any threat in the Northeast.
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At least 18 dead from last night, the situation in N AR sounds particularly bad.
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At least 10 dead now (7 in N TX, 2 in Mayes Co. OK, and 1 in Benton Co. AR) from last night's severe weather.
