andyhb

18z Euro was very impressive for tomorrow and probably worthy of a MDT risk. Gives ample time to destabilize with 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH becoming common along a 50 kt LLJ over SE IA, NE MO, and far W IL by 21z. Signal is for a discrete/semi-discrete band of cells along the arcing Pacific front/dryline with better lapse rates thanks to CAA aloft closer to the primary upper low. There are a number of larger synoptic N MO/IA events that looks like this one at 500 mb (5/27/1995, 4/8/1999, 3/31/2023, 4/11/2001 amongst them), and the dryslot in the mid levels as 700-500 mb, which is absolutely paramount for these types of events, looks pretty potent. I also noticed that most of the CAMs, despite different evolutions, ended up with robust cells with strong UH across some portion of the region, both at 12z and 18z.

CIPS analogs are absolutely jacked for Tuesday in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Going to be pending convection from Monday I'm sure, but the setup seems to be there for a significant and potentially widespread event.

Tuesday also looks like a potentially significant severe event over AR and MO primarily depending on what occurs overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Very strong flow with the ejecting wave and a substantial dryslot aloft to aid in renewed destabilization. Additionally there appears to be a diffuse Pacific front/dryline pushing east.

There isn't really much blocking in the northern latitudes right now.

Not going to to get much more into specifics on this one right now, but the trough ejection on multiple models here looks favorable for a higher end threat, especially in Oklahoma.

Supercell on that boundary in the Austin area could be bad news, especially with rush hour on I-35.

Looks like a tornado approaching West Union OH with the same storm.

Strong tornado in progress in E TN NE of Wartburg right now. Edit: also a tornado in progress NE of Louisville.

Significant tornado in progress in central WV. Also its 71/64 with a south wind at Covington KY (Cincinnati metro) rn. Anyone calling bust/counting out at least SW OH for later needs to take a step back.

A lot of convection over OK and MO that is going to need to be worked out before we figure what tomorrow's ceiling is. I will say that this is on the "more inhibitive" side in terms of convective coverage from what I've seen in past events.

Outbreak potential with intense/long-tracked tornadoes mentioned in that outlook.

12z HRRR was knocking on the door of a high risk for IN/OH.

Yeah there's definitely something eerie about a potentially significant severe threat one day before the 50th anniversary of, hands down, the worst tornado outbreak to ever affect the Ohio Valley.

Probably should consider a separate thread for this one soon. The 12z NAM also brought back a significant threat after losing it at 00z.

Yes the 18z NAM is absolutely nasty on Tuesday. Granted, that probably won't hold, although its 500 mb setup isn't much different than the other models. The low levels will make or break this along with prior convection from Monday.

Well yeah, you used to live in Florida.

Tuesday looks potentially volatile in the OV on the 12z GFS and Euro. 40-50 kt SW/WSW LLJ with a potent vort ejecting out of the Plains positive tilt trough. Moisture looks like a non-issue, the primary fly in the ointment looks to be the degree of veering in the surface winds, which will also be tied to the timing of the ejecting wave/potential phasing with the northern stream.

7 tornadoes confirmed thus far in the ILN CWA.

Now high end EF3. Have some suspicion that there are a few points that may be consideration for EF4. The Taco Bell and the church that were both completely destroyed in particular.

I'm not sure on the number of confirmed dead. The last more official statement I saw was 3 dead with the likelihood to rise. Also I believe the Lakeview tornado has been upgraded to EF3 from the earlier EF2 PNS in Orchard Island.

The fatalities in Winchester were redacted later. I think someone got "casualties" lost in translation or something of the sort.

https://www.whio.com/news/local/injuries-storm-related-damage-reported-mercer-county/ZE7JIPWZNNAFVKOUSCV3VTT5N4/ Fatalities confirmed in Logan Co. OH from the Wapakoneta/Lakeview tornado.