LVblizzard
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Everything posted by LVblizzard
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18z Euro is a Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and coal region jackpot. Feeling good going into the 0z runs. Let’s hope there’s no 50 mile jump north like there was with the December storm. I’d actually feel better if we saw a small jump south.
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I posted 10-18” for the Lehigh Valley on my page. I don’t feel comfortable narrowing that given how much we still don’t know about how this storm will evolve.
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I get chills when I read the words “capture” and “stall” when the storm is just 24 hours away from starting.
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I’d go near I-81 if I were you. Maybe in Lancaster/York or the coal region.
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We’re not out of the woods yet. In the December storm it wasn’t until 24 hours before the start of the storm that the models collectively made their big jump to the north. If we get past 0z tonight and we’re still in the bullseye, though...time to start feeling really, really good.
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CMC drops over 60 hours of continuous snow for many of us. Snow starts tomorrow afternoon and doesn’t end until Tuesday night.
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The RGEM is just weird. DC and Baltimore get a blizzard while NYC and Boston mix with rain.
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The RGEM looks completely different from any other model right now. It suppresses the overrunning snow and even the initial snow from the coastal storm. But then there’s a huge band that very slowly moves inland...on Monday NIGHT! Light snow then remains all day on Tuesday.
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The NAM never gets rates above 1”/hr into our area but the sheer duration of the storm makes up for it. When you see nearly 2 days straight of moderate snow it’s going to pile up.
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I wouldn’t call this NAM run a “huge win.” It still gets mixing up to the Lehigh Valley. It’s not a total disaster like 6z but it’s still not great.
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From 0z? Maybe. From 6z? Probably not.
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I’d be lying if I said the NAM didn’t have me a little on edge. It’s been the first to sniff out big northwest trends in the past. Of course there’s a lot of times when it’s off its rocker too, but you just can’t completely toss it right now.
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1. Clean up the drinks you spit all over your screen 2.. UKMET and Euro
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Lancaster County special on the CMC...nearly 4 feet in the jackpot area! If I lived in that exact location I'd print out the snow map and frame it on my wall.
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Some of these models have periods of light snow all day on Tuesday and that would just be amazing after getting a foot or more of snow. Love the mood flakes after a big event.
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Philly weenies are gonna faint when they see the RGEM...
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That’s over 36 hours straight of snow. Super long-duration storm is back on the menu!
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I just posted 4-8” for the Lehigh Valley on my page but I stressed that confidence is low.
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NAM looks like it’s a tick south.
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The Euro run definitely eased some of my anxiety. It doesn’t look like a total whiff is a realistic solution here in the Lehigh Valley. Now the question is, is this a run of the mill 3-6” storm or will it be much more significant?
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UKMET crushes most of the area. Very sharp cutoff north of the Lehigh Valley though. Allentown sees close to a foot while Jim Thorpe and Hazleton only get an inch or so.
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Seems like we’re near the cutoff with so many storms. It only takes a small change for us to go from 12-18” to 2-4” here with this one.
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Remember, the Euro was the southern outlier with the Jan. 2016 storm too. I remember it came close to whiffing Philly for a few runs.
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Happens on the RGEM too which has a very similar look to the NAM at the end of its run.
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NAM looks very good. Would probably be a decent hit for most of us if extrapolated.
