nwohweather

I think compaction, sleet mixing in, low snow ratios & this thing losing its moisture transport slowly as it drifts into a storm off the Seaboard hurts the totals a little bit compared to models. Interesting storm but these ratios are not ideal for anything over 10" as we've seen in the past For NW Ohio 3-5" east of 75, 4-8" west of it. 4-8" for all of Northern IN 6-10" for Northern IL

That's what I'm thinking could impact accums a bit as well. Getting that thick cement snowfall is going to lead to compaction for sure.

Have to say have worries on this one as well for snow totals. Clear issues for Northern OH/IN with warmth at the surface & all that moisture flow starts slowly bleeding out into that coastal storm. Much more confidence in the storm off the coast than this one for the weekend living up to expectations

Was given guidance from work that once cases are below 500 a day or you are vaccinated we are to return back to the office. It appears the quality of work lately has been garbage, and at least at the corporate level, work from home is starting to be a mess. We’ve fired 3 people in our division and an entire team of 4 in Canada was terminated. It’s became evident some people are not pulling close to 40, or struggling to do any projects. Has anyone else ran into these issues with their company for the WFH folks?

There's a chance today. I'm hopeful, but CIN seems to be a contributing factor to holding it down. Still, solid moisture, ample wind shear & decent amount of energy are there.

Yuck

Wow is Omaha getting buried. Awesome storm for them

I continue to enjoy tracking Great Lakes weather but have to admit, 76 and sunny in January is certainly enjoyable.

76 currently here in Summerville with a nice breeze! Love it

I started hammering this underperforming hard yesterday as we moved into the short range. I also have acknowledged that I didn't expect the precipitation to drop off that much. Again everyone seemed super bullish on what is a 1000 mb low fading as it passes through the region. That doesn't instill confidence at all.

This is the problem with most of this thread. It’s been obvious for days that this thing was going to shear apart as it traveled east & with each day the models continued to show a weaker storm once the low pressure center moved into the Ohio Valley. Combine that with mixing issues as the column saturates & questions over the amount of ice aloft always led me to doubt snowfall totals that were shown on the models. This was always going to be a 4-8” storm in the main swath for IL/IN/MI. I am a little let down at how bad this has trended for the Toledo area, 2-4” is disappointing to say the least. KS/MO/IA look to be in for a heck of a Plains event though

1-2” for Toledo seems real low

Man local Toledo mets have completely thrown the towel in on this

Loving this forecast for next week. Definitely have a shot at 80 on Tuesday, love it for January

Snow wise yes. Doesn’t make sense for severe weather though, both Lakes & Ohio Valley often face the same outbreaks. Don’t get me wrong, I like tracking snowstorms, but for some of us it’s tornadoes & derechos that are the real thrill

I agree with that. But I’d throw Illinois in there as well with IN/MI/OH. Rooting for all though lol don’t think I’m completely pessimistic. Stronger this storm is, the more warmth I get. Looks like I’ll make a run at 80 on Tuesday

The slower this exits, the more the defo band weakens. Combine that with a mid level dry slot & a weakening storm as it moves East, you have an underperformer. You’re a pro, you should know this man

It’s so obvious how snow starved weather fans are up there. I feel for ya lol, but far too many bullish comments on this on a storm likely to underperform.

As someone who loves history & weather, this is the thing that fascinated me with the 1918-19 pandemic. Once herd immunity was reached it almost completely stopped on a dime as it mutated weaker according to experts. I'm sure the real number is much higher than 25 million cases so a combination of that & vaccines will probably lead to a sharp decline in the coming months

Nice to see the models becoming more realistic with a SW/NE tilt to the snow swath. 4-8" is the solid call for NW Ohio/SE Michigan with higher amounts possible to the west, but certainly expect this one to underperform. Weakening system on approach with mixing issues as the column saturates will make this more of a 4-6" in all likelihood.

This thing really falls apart once it moves into Eastern standard time eh? Wouldn’t be shocked to see some places in Ohio get robbed on snow. Looks good for IA/IL

It's one model guy.

Have to admit, looks like a solid setup for the area. Solid high to the north, a low pressure that's not too strong & and no severe weather off to the South expected that could rob it of moisture. Amateur opinion would have to be Northern IN/IL get 6-10", 4-8" for Toledo area & 3-6" for Detroit. Does seem to lose a bit of steam on Tuesday morning which could hurt moisture a bit but I think 6" is a solid call for Toledo.

Hahaha has he never heard of an Alberta Clipper before?

Haha the cut off is so sharp in NW Ohio. I’d be shocked if the southern cutoff doesn’t move to the turnpike/south suburbs of Toledo. Always seems to once we get inside 72 hours as the snow axis typically takes a SW/NE tilt as the event approaches. Odd to see a pure E-W snow map