USCAPEWEATHERAF

The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters. Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well. A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W. Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday. Heavy rainfall over 5" should be a common number when this storm exits Saturday night/Sunday morning. Be prepared for a raw few days from I-95 corridor eastward will be the main region impacted from eastern CT to Eastern ME.

Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon. Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay. Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed. Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The July 23rd, 2019 tornado on Cape Cod that occurred in my town of Harwich, wasn't the only severe weather event this past summer, another hail event with stones about quarter sized occurred on June 22nd, 2019. That was cool.https://twitter.com/89Nich/status/1180108248122351616/photo/1

Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest. Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F. Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebound temp wise into the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows again in the mid to upper 40s. Frost is possible the next few days across the interior of New England and the mountains of the area. Monday will feature a warmer day than the weekend as a front approaches from western NY. Temperatures will return into the mid to upper 60s maybe some locations nearing the lower to mid 70s perhaps for the last time until March, unless a period of Indian Summer reaches that mark again this winter season. Perhaps the next time we see temperatures in the mid 70s will be late April early May 2020. Monday will feature warm temps, but the return of high altitude cirrus clouds and then thickening clouds towards sunset and temps lowering no more than 60F in the overnight hours before the cold front passes through late Tuesday morning. Temperatures will peak in the morning and then fall dramatically throughout the day into the lower 40s into Wednesday morning. Wednesday through Friday appear to be the middle 50s for highs and lower to middle 40s for lows until the weekend features potential for another cold front that will bring rain showers and colder air for the weekend into the early week. Stay Tuned! We will likely see subtle changes in the coming days to the ten day forecast. - JWN Productions!

Attached is the guidelines for the different threat levels I will put in place for each snow event in the future from end of November through the first week of April 2020. Snowfall amounts and impacts forecast technique.docx

List of names (TWC) issued for the 2019-2020 winter season: Aubrey - Bessie - Caleb - Dorothy - Ezekiel - Finley - Gage - Henry - Isaiah - Jacob - Kade - Lamont - Mabel - Nash - Odell - Pearl - Quincy - Ruth - Sadie - Thatcher - Upton - Veronica - Wyatt - Xandra - Yates - Zachariah

Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us. New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter. As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world. As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly. As winter approaches abruptly and the only way Nature knows how, we get warning signs that the weather machine is ready to change gears and this is what I am seeing on the guidance this morning. There is rather strong agreement that a clipper will develop a secondary low off the coast of Cape Cod and Nantucket (ACK) as we head into the weekend. This system will carry a cold air mass on the north side and then northwest side and bring a change of temperatures to the region from the backside winds. Before that happens, we will experience spotty rain, until you are north of Concord, NH where rain will become more steady and then changeover to snow as one heads into the mountains of northern NH/VT/ME and the mountains of this region in the weekend. Saturday will be rather raw and spot showers at times, and then Sunday will be quite beautiful and rather chilly compared to what the last few days have given us. Also, another sign of the change in seasons is the rather rapid build-up of cold deep arctic air masses into northern Canada and then into the central and southern Canadian Prairies. This will begin to dive into the northern third of the US, above 40N from MT to ME as we head into the mid-month period and then the end of the month and beyond. Rather active weather pattern will begin to impact the US as multiple troughs will swing through the northern tier, this is rather common in neutral ENSO patterns. I will have another update after the 12z EURO if something changes in the guidance.

Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions. Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England. Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like. Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.

Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter. This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England. Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location. Coastal plain of New England could see slightly above average to potentially above average snow. I would say the Outer Cape from CHH to P-town could see around 30-45" of snow, parts of the Cape from CHH west to HYA could see 40-55" and parts of the Cape from HYA westward over 60" of snow. So these numbers support slightly above to above average snowfall this winter.

What is this winter expecting? Does anyone know when a triple-phase storm is expected?

Was the winter of 2014-2015 considered a warm neutral ENSO?

For severe weather, June 2008 Hail storm, July 23rd, 2019 Tornado EF-1, 110mph winds. Winter events: combo of Winter 2004-2005, and 2014-2015, single event of FEB 8-9th 2013, microburst 2005 DEC 9th NOREASTER. Hurricane Season 2004, the discovery of Wunderground.com Dr. Masters' blog.

Thanks Kevin.

I am in Kevin,

I believe the second Atlantic Hurricane on the models is a threat but maybe heads out to sea as well.

I don't either, I gained a different perspective on destruction after the EF-1 tornado that lasted five minutes here in Harwich. The day without power. It was long enough without technology. I just hate that. I want to watch the Patriots.

The models this morning have been on point with that turn to the east right as he got off the Cape Hatteras area. He has swung way right recently but is gaining convective organization.

Scott, you want the destructive power of a hurricane? i am so happy he isn't coming close enough for hurricane-force wind gusts. I will take the heavy downpours and a few gusts to 45mph and call it a night. Less of a power outage threat.

Good luck changing the jet stream, it is more likely to get a winter storm west 75 miles than a hurricane 75 miles west. Tropics are more fragile atmospherically speaking.

haha

I have gained a new perspective on life. I am never wishing for disaster after the 200-yard wide five-mile touchdown of the EF-1 tornado we witnessed on July 23rd, 2019. I saw our outside furniture fly around in the backyard and our tall trees bend all the way over in the wind that had to be at least 110mph. It was an amazingly horrifying experience. I can't imagine what a 934mb hurricane would do to our area for a few hours. Dorian appears to be tightening up once again. He is developing very cold cloud tops in the eyewall.

HAHA

No they won't move the game, the storm is on Saturday morning, the game is Sunday night, I am talking about losing power, that is not something I want.

Not with the wind field like the models are showing, the strongest winds are near his center, indicative of a tropical cyclone.